Long Trade on PENGU (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 47542.64 PENGU at 0.00625$ per unit. Take profit: 0.00667 (6.74 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006081 (2.69 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 01:21:05
hyperliquid
PENGU
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 01:21
→ 09:05
· 7 hours
Position
Entry 0.006249$
Qty 47542.6398 PENGU
Size 297.094$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.00667 (+6.74%)
TP $ 20.02$
SL 0.006081 (-2.69%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2.51
Status
loss
PnL
-2.69%
/ -7.99$
MAE -2.70%
MFE +1.26%
0.5R
expires
06 Aug 13:20
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60076)
#3 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 01:00
score du 06/08/2026 01:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.8571
Quality Score
0.568
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 01:16
06/08 01:16
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#3 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#3 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.79×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.02×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.49×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (+1) 06/08 01:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 06/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 06/08 00:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | +1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.57
Transition risk :
0.43
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.74
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 01:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5676
Score SMA
0.5523
Rank
#3
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8571
Rank Norm SMA
0.6788
Calculé le
06/08/2026 01:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5459 | r1h: 0.340% · r4h: -1.085% · r1d: 2.34% · r3d: 2.26% · ema21_slope: 0.1026% · dist_ema21: 0.661% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4976 | rs_1h: 0.157% · rs_4h: -1.102% · rs_1d: 1.59% · rs_3d: -0.70% · beta_24h: 1.142 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3441 | rvol_20: 0.88× · zscore_50: 0.241 · trend: 0.37% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7377 | ADX: 28.6 (trend) · Chop: 38.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.022% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.688%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.288% | 0.1R | -0.528% | 0.2R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.944% | 0.4R | -0.528% | 0.2R | 1.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.264% | 0.5R | -1.504% | 0.6R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.264% | 0.5R | -2.704% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.264% | 0.5R | -2.704% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.264% | 0.5R | -5.281% | 2.0R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.81
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -0.1ATR | near 0.5ATR | 0.74 | bear_high | -3.62% | +0.48 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | weak | fading | normal | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | — | 0.69 | bull_high | +0.84% | -0.12 | 06/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bull_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | near 0.4ATR | near -0.8ATR | 0.54 | bull_low | +1.04% | +0.22 | 06/08 00:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | range_medium |
39%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | — | — | range_low | +0.25% | -0.12 | 06/08 00:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 33b | — | 2.018×ATR | p0 | +0.568×ATR | p57 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 1.524×ATR | p0 | +0.2×ATR | p22 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.358×ATR | p2 | +0.541×ATR | p53 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 9b | — | 1.421×ATR | p3 | +0.262×ATR | p29 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8134
- reason: up_bo width=2.97×ATR dur=42b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.00608073
- tp_price: 0.00666967
- atr:
- score: 0.81343790035683
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T17:20:58.101745
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81343790035683
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0525
- obi_top10 : 0.01
- micro_price : 0.00623247
- spread_pct : 0.016046
- mid_price : 0.0062325
- bid_wall_price : 0.00619
- bid_wall_size : 26590599.2
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.00626
- ask_wall_size : 26470766
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0551
- obi_top5_std : 0.0025
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7061
- aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.00618
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.005994
- balance_zone_mid:
0.006087
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785844800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785992400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9682
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
42
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8134
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785988800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.00618
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8333
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.1011
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
10
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
2
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 6.266E-5 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
42
inside_close_ratio
0.8333
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1011
Signaux confirmants (36)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:21 | 0.00624900 | 0% |
| 2 | 01:27 | 0.00624900 | 0% |
| 3 | 01:33 | 0.00624900 | 0% |
| 4 | 01:39 | 0.00623700 | -0.192% |
| 5 | 01:45 | 0.00623700 | -0.192% |
| 6 | 01:51 | 0.00622700 | -0.352% |
| 7 | 01:57 | 0.00622700 | -0.352% |
| 8 | 02:04 | 0.00622700 | -0.352% |
| 9 | 02:21 | 0.00621800 | -0.496% |
| 10 | 02:27 | 0.00621800 | -0.496% |
| 11 | 02:33 | 0.00621800 | -0.496% |
| 12 | 02:39 | 0.00628800 | +0.624% |
| 13 | 02:45 | 0.00628800 | +0.624% |
| 14 | 02:51 | 0.00628000 | +0.496% |
| 15 | 02:57 | 0.00628000 | +0.496% |
| 16 | 03:04 | 0.00628000 | +0.496% |
| 17 | 03:09 | 0.00627600 | +0.432% |
| 18 | 03:15 | 0.00627600 | +0.432% |
| 19 | 03:21 | 0.00627100 | +0.352% |
| 20 | 03:26 | 0.00627100 | +0.352% |
| 21 | 03:33 | 0.00627100 | +0.352% |
| 22 | 03:39 | 0.00630800 | +0.944% |
| 23 | 03:45 | 0.00630800 | +0.944% |
| 24 | 03:51 | 0.00629300 | +0.704% |
| 25 | 03:57 | 0.00629300 | +0.704% |
| 26 | 04:04 | 0.00629300 | +0.704% |
| 27 | 04:09 | 0.00626800 | +0.304% |
| 28 | 04:15 | 0.00626800 | +0.304% |
| 29 | 04:21 | 0.00626700 | +0.288% |
| 30 | 04:27 | 0.00626700 | +0.288% |
| 31 | 04:33 | 0.00626700 | +0.288% |
| 32 | 04:39 | 0.00626800 | +0.304% |
| 33 | 04:45 | 0.00626800 | +0.304% |
| 34 | 04:51 | 0.00628200 | +0.528% |
| 35 | 04:57 | 0.00628200 | +0.528% |
| 36 | 05:04 | 0.00628200 | +0.528% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7061ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.053
avg 0.055
± 0.003
OBI Top 10
0.010
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0062
Micro Price
0.0062
Spread
0.0160%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0062
Size
26,590,599.20
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0063
Size
26,470,766.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006249 | 0.006081 | 0.00667 | 2.51 | 0.006783 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.006249
- Stop Loss: 0.006081
- Take Profit: 0.00667
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006081 - 0.006249 = -0.000168
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006249 - 0.00667 = -0.000421
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000421 / -0.000168 = 2.506
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 297.094 | 100 | 47542.6398 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.000168
Taille de position = 8 / -0.000168 = -47619.05
Taille de position USD = -47619.05 x 0.006249 = -297.57
Donc, tu peux acheter -47619.05 avec un stoploss a 0.006081
Avec un position size USD de -297.57$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -47619.05 x -0.000168 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -47619.05 x -0.000421 = 20.05
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.05$
Résumé
- Taille de position -47619.05
- Taille de position USD -297.57
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.05
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.506
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.74 % | 20.02 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.69 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.99 $ | -2.69 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.7044 % | 100.6 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006249 | 0.006081 | 0.00667 | 2.51 | 0.006783 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.006249
- Stop Loss: 0.006081
- Take Profit: 0.00667
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006081 - 0.006249 = -0.000168
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006249 - 0.00667 = -0.000421
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000421 / -0.000168 = 2.506
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.688%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.288% | 0.1R | -0.528% | 0.2R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.944% | 0.4R | -0.528% | 0.2R | 1.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.264% | 0.5R | -1.504% | 0.6R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.264% | 0.5R | -2.704% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.264% | 0.5R | -2.704% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.264% | 0.5R | -5.281% | 2.0R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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