Short Trade on KAITO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 174.3 KAITO at 0.884$ per unit. Take profit: 0.769 (12.98 %) & Stop Loss: 0.9296 (5.19 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 05:10:28
hyperliquid
KAITO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 05:10
→ 17:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.8837$
Qty 174.2968 KAITO
Size 154.0278$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.769 (+12.98%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.9296 (-5.19%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.70%
/ -4.16$
MAE -4.56%
MFE +0.90%
0.2R
expires
06 Aug 17:10
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60260)
#45 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 05:00
score du 06/08/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0335
Quality Score
0.386
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 05:02
06/08 05:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#45 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.19 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#45 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.19 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.37×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.75×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.62×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 06/08 05:00 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 06/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 06/08 04:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.57
Transition risk :
0.43
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.49
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 05:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.3863
Score SMA
0.4365
Rank
#45
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0335
Rank Norm SMA
0.1226
Calculé le
06/08/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3731 | r1h: -0.479% · r4h: -0.651% · r1d: -2.81% · r3d: -9.42% · ema21_slope: -0.0326% · dist_ema21: -1.882% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2982 | rs_1h: -0.579% · rs_4h: -0.877% · rs_1d: -3.99% · rs_3d: -13.14% · beta_24h: -0.320 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1461 | rvol_20: 0.23× · zscore_50: -0.972 · trend: -41.85% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4706 | ADX: 14.5 (weak) · Chop: 56.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.757% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -5.194%
(0.0459)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.226% | 0.0R | -0.909% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.791% | 0.2R | -0.909% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.791% | 0.2R | -1.643% | 0.3R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.791% | 0.2R | -3.956% | 0.8R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.896% | 0.2R | -4.560% | 0.9R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.896% | 0.2R | -4.560% | 0.9R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.84
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.40 | bear_high | -3.31% | +0.35 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | — | — | 0.00 | bull_high | +1.22% | -0.89 | 06/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | weak | fading | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 35% | mid | near -0.4ATR | — | -0.13 | bull_low | +1.28% | -0.44 | 06/08 04:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 47% | early | — | — | 0.17 | range_low | +0.44% | -0.35 | 06/08 04:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 3.549×ATR | p35 | -0.509×ATR | p43 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 28b | — | 7.874×ATR | p100 | -0.525×ATR | p53 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 3.057×ATR | p61 | -0.895×ATR | p70 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.016×ATR | p0 | -0.056×ATR | p7 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.9595
- reason: down_bo width=2.94×ATR dur=39b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)|ob:obi_moderate(+0.05)
- stop_price: 0.92960873
- tp_price: 0.76896318
- atr:
- score: 0.83945671313272
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T21:10:21.300741
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83945671313272
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.2847
- obi_top10 : -0.0442
- micro_price : 0.88203846
- spread_pct : 0.045357
- mid_price : 0.8821
- bid_wall_price : 0.877
- bid_wall_size : 61790.74
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.887
- ask_wall_size : 58592.68
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.2628
- obi_top5_std : 0.0131
- pressure_side : ask
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7028
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.951905
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.90406
- balance_zone_mid:
0.9279825
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785870000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786006800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9421
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
39
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8395
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786003200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.90406
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8718
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.2514
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.01626228 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
39
inside_close_ratio
0.8718
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.2514
Signaux confirmants (15)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:10 | 0.88371000 | +0.001% |
| 2 | 05:16 | 0.88371000 | +0.001% |
| 3 | 05:22 | 0.88279000 | -0.103% |
| 4 | 05:27 | 0.88279000 | -0.103% |
| 5 | 05:34 | 0.88279000 | -0.103% |
| 6 | 05:39 | 0.89016000 | +0.731% |
| 7 | 05:46 | 0.89016000 | +0.731% |
| 8 | 05:52 | 0.88697000 | +0.37% |
| 9 | 05:58 | 0.88697000 | +0.37% |
| 10 | 06:05 | 0.88697000 | +0.37% |
| 11 | 06:40 | 0.88121000 | -0.282% |
| 12 | 06:46 | 0.88121000 | -0.282% |
| 13 | 06:52 | 0.88044000 | -0.369% |
| 14 | 06:58 | 0.88044000 | -0.369% |
| 15 | 07:05 | 0.88044000 | -0.369% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↓ ask
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7028ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
96%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.285
avg -0.263
± 0.013
OBI Top 10
-0.044
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.8821
Micro Price
0.8820
Spread
0.0454%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.8770
Size
61,790.74
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.8870
Size
58,592.68
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8837 | 0.9296 | 0.769 | 2.5 | 0.2823 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.8837
- Stop Loss: 0.9296
- Take Profit: 0.769
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.9296 - 0.8837 = 0.0459
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.8837 - 0.769 = 0.1147
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1147 / 0.0459 = 2.4989
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154.0278 | 100 | 174.2968 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0459
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0459 = 174.29
Taille de position USD = 174.29 x 0.8837 = 154.02
Donc, tu peux acheter 174.29 avec un stoploss a 0.9296
Avec un position size USD de 154.02$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 174.29 x 0.0459 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 174.29 x 0.1147 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 174.29
- Taille de position USD 154.02
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4989
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 12.98 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.19 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -4.16 $ | -2.70 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5604 % | 87.8 % | 11 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8837 | 0.9296 | 0.769 | 2.5 | 0.2823 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.8837
- Stop Loss: 0.9296
- Take Profit: 0.769
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.9296 - 0.8837 = 0.0459
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.8837 - 0.769 = 0.1147
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1147 / 0.0459 = 2.4989
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -5.194%
(0.0459)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.226% | 0.0R | -0.909% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.791% | 0.2R | -0.909% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.791% | 0.2R | -1.643% | 0.3R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.791% | 0.2R | -3.956% | 0.8R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.896% | 0.2R | -4.560% | 0.9R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.896% | 0.2R | -4.560% | 0.9R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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