Short Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1350.54 JUP at 0.182$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1674 (8.12 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1882 (3.29 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 05:44:44
hyperliquid
JUP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 05:44
→ 17:40
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.1822$
Qty 1350.5392 JUP
Size 246.1088$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1674 (+8.12%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.1882 (-3.29%)
SL $ 8.1$
RR 2.47
Status
loss
PnL
-0.17%
/ -0.42$
MAE -1.08%
MFE +0.86%
0.3R
expires
06 Aug 17:44
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60248)
#6 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 05:00
score du 06/08/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4261
Quality Score
0.587
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
53 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 05:30
06/08 05:30
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#6 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
53 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.29 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#6 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
53 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.29 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -3.04×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.44×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 06/08 05:00 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 06/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 06/08 05:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5867
Score SMA
0.4909
Rank
#6
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4261
Rank Norm SMA
0.3635
Calculé le
06/08/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4006 | r1h: -1.023% · r4h: -1.582% · r1d: -1.46% · r3d: -3.35% · ema21_slope: -0.0469% · dist_ema21: -1.565% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3235 | rs_1h: -1.124% · rs_4h: -1.808% · rs_1d: -2.64% · rs_3d: -7.08% · beta_24h: 1.068 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9805 | rvol_20: 8.95× · zscore_50: 2.708 · trend: 215.44% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5973 | ADX: 17.5 (weak) · Chop: 44.2 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.802% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.293%
(0.0060)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.478% | 0.2R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.137% | 0.0R | -0.489% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.862% | 0.3R | -0.494% | 0.2R | 1.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.862% | 0.3R | -1.081% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.862% | 0.3R | -1.081% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.526% | 0.5R | -3.008% | 0.9R | 0.5× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.65
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | — | — | 0.66 | bear_high | -3.31% | -0.43 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
53%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near -3.0ATR | — | 0.58 | bull_high | +1.21% | -0.66 | 06/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
55%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.66 | bull_low | +1.09% | -0.35 | 06/08 05:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_medium_confirmed |
59%
|
choppy 49% | late | — | — | 0.53 | range_low | +0.17% | -0.32 | 06/08 05:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 35b | — | 6.926×ATR | p95 | -0.418×ATR | p43 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 25b | — | 5.074×ATR | p91 | -1.375×ATR | p94 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 4.251×ATR | p85 | -2.31×ATR | p99 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 4.488×ATR | p71 | -2.217×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.5279
- reason: down_bo width=1.90×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 0.18815356
- tp_price: 0.16742109
- atr:
- score: 0.62792390947016
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T21:44:36.737886
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.62792390947016
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.2309
- obi_top10 : 0.2589
- micro_price : 0.18252008
- spread_pct : 0.054795
- mid_price : 0.18255
- bid_wall_price : 0.181
- bid_wall_size : 735991
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.183
- ask_wall_size : 640026.4
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.2048
- obi_top5_std : 0.0462
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7010
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.1895
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.18649
- balance_zone_mid:
0.187995
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785891600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786006800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.8983
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
33
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.6279
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786003200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.18649
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9091
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
2.6866
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.00158562 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
33
inside_close_ratio
0.9091
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
2.6866
Signaux confirmants (36)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:44 | 0.18223000 | +0.016% |
| 2 | 05:50 | 0.18260000 | +0.22% |
| 3 | 05:56 | 0.18260000 | +0.22% |
| 4 | 06:03 | 0.18260000 | +0.22% |
| 5 | 06:09 | 0.18251000 | +0.17% |
| 6 | 06:15 | 0.18251000 | +0.17% |
| 7 | 06:21 | 0.18281000 | +0.335% |
| 8 | 06:27 | 0.18281000 | +0.335% |
| 9 | 06:33 | 0.18281000 | +0.335% |
| 10 | 06:38 | 0.18255000 | +0.192% |
| 11 | 06:45 | 0.18255000 | +0.192% |
| 12 | 06:51 | 0.18214000 | -0.033% |
| 13 | 06:57 | 0.18214000 | -0.033% |
| 14 | 07:04 | 0.18214000 | -0.033% |
| 15 | 07:21 | 0.18288000 | +0.373% |
| 16 | 07:27 | 0.18288000 | +0.373% |
| 17 | 07:33 | 0.18288000 | +0.373% |
| 18 | 07:39 | 0.18292000 | +0.395% |
| 19 | 07:45 | 0.18292000 | +0.395% |
| 20 | 07:51 | 0.18282000 | +0.34% |
| 21 | 07:57 | 0.18282000 | +0.34% |
| 22 | 08:04 | 0.18282000 | +0.34% |
| 23 | 09:51 | 0.18238000 | +0.099% |
| 24 | 09:57 | 0.18238000 | +0.099% |
| 25 | 10:04 | 0.18238000 | +0.099% |
| 26 | 10:09 | 0.18245000 | +0.137% |
| 27 | 10:15 | 0.18245000 | +0.137% |
| 28 | 10:51 | 0.18262000 | +0.231% |
| 29 | 10:56 | 0.18262000 | +0.231% |
| 30 | 11:04 | 0.18262000 | +0.231% |
| 31 | 11:09 | 0.18305000 | +0.467% |
| 32 | 11:15 | 0.18305000 | +0.467% |
| 33 | 11:21 | 0.18334000 | +0.626% |
| 34 | 11:27 | 0.18334000 | +0.626% |
| 35 | 11:33 | 0.18334000 | +0.626% |
| 36 | 11:39 | 0.18318000 | +0.538% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7010ms
Confidence avant OB :
63%
→
53%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.231
avg 0.205
± 0.046
OBI Top 10
0.259
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.1826
Micro Price
0.1825
Spread
0.0548%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.1810
Size
735,991.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.1830
Size
640,026.40
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1822 | 0.1882 | 0.1674 | 2.47 | 0.2132 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1822
- Stop Loss: 0.1882
- Take Profit: 0.1674
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1882 - 0.1822 = 0.006
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1822 - 0.1674 = 0.0148
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0148 / 0.006 = 2.4667
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 246.1088 | 100 | 1350.5392 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.006
Taille de position = 8 / 0.006 = 1333.33
Taille de position USD = 1333.33 x 0.1822 = 242.93
Donc, tu peux acheter 1333.33 avec un stoploss a 0.1882
Avec un position size USD de 242.93$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1333.33 x 0.006 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1333.33 x 0.0148 = 19.73
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.73$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1333.33
- Taille de position USD 242.93
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.73
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4667
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 8.12 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.29 % | 8.1 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.42 $ | -0.17 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.0812 % | 32.83 % | 25 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1822 | 0.1882 | 0.1674 | 2.47 | 0.2132 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1822
- Stop Loss: 0.1882
- Take Profit: 0.1674
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1882 - 0.1822 = 0.006
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1822 - 0.1674 = 0.0148
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0148 / 0.006 = 2.4667
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.293%
(0.0060)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.478% | 0.2R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.137% | 0.0R | -0.489% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.862% | 0.3R | -0.494% | 0.2R | 1.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.862% | 0.3R | -1.081% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.862% | 0.3R | -1.081% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.526% | 0.5R | -3.008% | 0.9R | 0.5× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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