Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 246078.13 PENGU at 0.00617$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006239 (1.05 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006141 (0.53 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 246078.13 PENGU at 0.00617$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006239 (1.05 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006141 (0.53 %)
Position
Entry 0.006174$
Qty 246078.1298 PENGU
Size 1519.2864$ (margin 100$) (leverage 15)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006239 (+1.05%)
TP $ 16$
SL 0.006141 (-0.53%)
SL $ 8.12$
RR 1.97
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.9275
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.90×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.21×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.70×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (+1) 06/08 05:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.5156 15m : 0.497793 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : range_medium 5m_regime : bear_low_confirmed |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 06/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1) 06/08 04:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bull | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | +1 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6060 | r1h: 0.239% · r4h: 1.404% · r1d: 3.85% · r3d: 3.83% · ema21_slope: 0.1206% · dist_ema21: 1.415% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5646 | rs_1h: 0.139% · rs_4h: 1.179% · rs_1d: 2.67% · rs_3d: 0.11% · beta_24h: 1.085 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3149 | rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -0.459 · trend: 59.08% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7015 | ADX: 33.0 (trend) · Chop: 47.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.022% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.016% | 0.0R | -0.858% | 1.6R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.016% | 0.0R | -1.361% | 2.6R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.016% | 0.0R | -1.523% | 2.9R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.518% | 1.0R | -1.523% | 2.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.518% | 1.0R | -3.839% | 7.2R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.74 | bear_high | -3.31% | +0.36 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | weak | fading | normal | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid | — | near 0.2ATR | 0.68 | bull_high | +1.22% | -0.07 | 06/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
56%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | — | 0.54 | bull_low | +1.28% | +0.23 | 06/08 04:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bull_medium |
65%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | — | range_low | +0.44% | +0.10 | 06/08 04:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 33b | — | 2.178×ATR | p0 | +0.36×ATR | p35 |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 5b | — | 2.27×ATR | p16 | +0.656×ATR | p64 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 6b | — | 1.874×ATR | p14 | +0.451×ATR | p46 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 1.483×ATR | p3 | +0.176×ATR | p19 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
64740.7
0.00102293
64807
0.5156
64583.6
0.00308611
64783
0.497793
64038.2
0.01102
64744
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0.006328
197
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0.0679
1
0.3254
0.9851
0.55
0.45
1
9
1
0.572
0.4334
3.9442
0.65
0.8027
2.7872
0.9851
0.6347
0.3592
0.84
0.4054
0.4554
0.4828
0.9034
0.7049
-2.2302
5.326
1
0
1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:21 | 0.00617400 | 0% |
| 2 | 05:27 | 0.00616300 | -0.178% |
| 3 | 05:33 | 0.00616600 | -0.13% |
| 4 | 05:39 | 0.00617300 | -0.016% |
| 5 | 05:45 | 0.00614800 | -0.421% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 04:30:00 | 0.006246 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 04:50:00 | 0.006191 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 05:15:00 | 0.006249 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 05:50:00 | 0.006216 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 07:10:00 | 0.006252 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 07:35:00 | 0.006328 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 08:20:00 | 0.006292 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 08:35:00 | 0.006247 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 08:55:00 | 0.006294 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 09:20:00 | 0.006164 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 15:30:00 | 0.006189 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-05 17:30:00 | 0.006207 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-05 18:30:00 | 0.006127 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 20:30:00 | 0.006208 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-05 21:30:00 | 0.006136 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 00:15:00 | 0.006372 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 02:15:00 | 0.006149 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 04:00:00 | 0.006156 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 07:30:00 | 0.006328 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 09:15:00 | 0.006178 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 08:00:00 | 0.00601 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-03 14:00:00 | 0.006219 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 00:00:00 | 0.006087 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 02:00:00 | 0.006231 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 16:00:00 | 0.00603 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 21:00:00 | 0.00618 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-05 00:00:00 | 0.005994 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 13:00:00 | 0.005991 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 00:00:00 | 0.006372 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 07:00:00 | 0.006328 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006174 | 0.006141 | 0.006239 | 1.97 | 0.006826 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006141 - 0.006174 = -3.3E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006174 - 0.006239 = -6.5E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -6.5E-5 / -3.3E-5 = 1.9697
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1519.2864 | 100 | 246078.1298 | 15.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -3.3E-5 = -242424.24
Taille de position USD = -242424.24 x 0.006174 = -1496.73
Donc, tu peux acheter -242424.24 avec un stoploss a 0.006141
Avec un position size USD de -1496.73$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -242424.24 x -3.3E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -242424.24 x -6.5E-5 = 15.76
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.76$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.05 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.53 % | 8.12 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.12 $ | -0.53 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5507 % | 103.03 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006174 | 0.006141 | 0.006239 | 1.97 | 0.006826 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006141 - 0.006174 = -3.3E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006174 - 0.006239 = -6.5E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -6.5E-5 / -3.3E-5 = 1.9697
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.016% | 0.0R | -0.858% | 1.6R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.016% | 0.0R | -1.361% | 2.6R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.016% | 0.0R | -1.523% | 2.9R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.518% | 1.0R | -1.523% | 2.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.518% | 1.0R | -3.839% | 7.2R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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