Short Trade on BCH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 3.45 BCH at 211.19$ per unit. Take profit: 205.3861 (2.75 %) & Stop Loss: 213.5115 (1.1 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 07:09:03
hyperliquid
BCH
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 07:09
→ 11:40
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 211.19$
Qty 3.446 BCH
Size 727.7573$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 205.3861 (+2.75%)
TP $ 20$
SL 213.5115 (-1.1%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.10%
/ -8$
MAE -1.78%
MFE +0.27%
0.3R
expires
06 Aug 19:08
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60331)
#23 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 07:00
score du 06/08/2026 07:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7301
Quality Score
0.480
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 07:00
06/08 07:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#23 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.10 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#23 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.10 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.30×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.13×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.05×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 06/08 07:00 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 06/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 06/08 06:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.57
Transition risk :
0.43
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.49
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 07:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4798
Score SMA
0.5402
Rank
#23
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7301
Rank Norm SMA
0.7025
Calculé le
06/08/2026 07:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4606 | r1h: -0.123% · r4h: -1.461% · r1d: -0.41% · r3d: 0.76% · ema21_slope: 0.0010% · dist_ema21: -0.908% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4418 | rs_1h: -0.021% · rs_4h: -1.096% · rs_1d: -1.28% · rs_3d: -2.22% · beta_24h: 1.720 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2274 | rvol_20: 0.30× · zscore_50: -0.666 · trend: 3.85% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5714 | ADX: 19.6 (weak) · Chop: 49.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.657% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.099%
(2.3215)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.204% | 0.2R | -0.284% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.242% | 0.2R | -0.379% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.270% | 0.3R | -0.942% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.270% | 0.3R | -1.780% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.270% | 0.3R | -1.780% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.270% | 0.3R | -2.405% | 2.2R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.67
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 32% | mid | — | — | 0.66 | bear_high | -3.31% | -0.35 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.65 | bull_high | +0.96% | -0.22 | 06/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | range_medium |
38%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.51 | bull_low | +0.83% | -0.11 | 06/08 06:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_low |
44%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | near -1.9ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.02% | -0.11 | 06/08 06:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 27b | — | 4.51×ATR | p67 | +0.119×ATR | p15 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.894×ATR | p0 | -0.543×ATR | p58 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 2.614×ATR | p35 | -1.296×ATR | p89 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 4.955×ATR | p84 | -1.027×ATR | p77 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8088
- reason: down_bo width=2.11×ATR dur=60b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 213.51154306
- tp_price: 205.38614234
- atr:
- score: 0.80882594360629
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T23:08:56.110274
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.80882594360629
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0934
- obi_top10 : 0.0573
- micro_price : 211.24955882
- spread_pct : 0.009468
- mid_price : 211.25
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 215
- ask_wall_size : 3421.57
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0693
- obi_top5_std : 0.0137
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6855
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
214.795
- balance_zone_bottom:
211.96
- balance_zone_mid:
213.3775
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785801600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786014000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.115
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
60
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8088
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786010400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
211.96
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7167
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.5744
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
14
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 1.34043064 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
60
inside_close_ratio
0.7167
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5744
Signaux confirmants (27)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:09 | 211.19000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 07:14 | 211.19000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 07:20 | 211.25000000 | +0.028% |
| 4 | 07:26 | 211.25000000 | +0.028% |
| 5 | 07:32 | 211.25000000 | +0.028% |
| 6 | 07:38 | 211.69000000 | +0.237% |
| 7 | 07:44 | 211.69000000 | +0.237% |
| 8 | 07:50 | 211.74000000 | +0.26% |
| 9 | 07:56 | 211.74000000 | +0.26% |
| 10 | 08:02 | 211.74000000 | +0.26% |
| 11 | 08:08 | 211.66000000 | +0.223% |
| 12 | 08:14 | 211.66000000 | +0.223% |
| 13 | 08:20 | 211.34000000 | +0.071% |
| 14 | 08:26 | 211.34000000 | +0.071% |
| 15 | 08:32 | 211.34000000 | +0.071% |
| 16 | 08:38 | 211.53000000 | +0.161% |
| 17 | 08:44 | 211.53000000 | +0.161% |
| 18 | 08:50 | 211.48000000 | +0.137% |
| 19 | 08:56 | 211.48000000 | +0.137% |
| 20 | 09:02 | 211.48000000 | +0.137% |
| 21 | 09:08 | 211.26000000 | +0.033% |
| 22 | 09:14 | 211.26000000 | +0.033% |
| 23 | 09:20 | 211.17000000 | -0.009% |
| 24 | 09:26 | 211.17000000 | -0.009% |
| 25 | 09:32 | 211.17000000 | -0.009% |
| 26 | 09:37 | 211.62000000 | +0.204% |
| 27 | 09:43 | 211.62000000 | +0.204% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6855ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.093
avg 0.069
± 0.014
OBI Top 10
0.057
Microstructure
Mid Price
211.2500
Micro Price
211.2496
Spread
0.0095%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
215.0000
Size
3,421.57
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 211.19 | 213.5115 | 205.3861 | 2.5 | 219.83 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 211.19
- Stop Loss: 213.5115
- Take Profit: 205.3861
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 213.5115 - 211.19 = 2.3215
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 211.19 - 205.3861 = 5.8039
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.8039 / 2.3215 = 2.5001
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 727.7573 | 100 | 3.446 | 7.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 2.3215
Taille de position = 8 / 2.3215 = 3.45
Taille de position USD = 3.45 x 211.19 = 728.61
Donc, tu peux acheter 3.45 avec un stoploss a 213.5115
Avec un position size USD de 728.61$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3.45 x 2.3215 = 8.01
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.01$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3.45 x 5.8039 = 20.02
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3.45
- Taille de position USD 728.61
- Perte potentielle 8.01
- Gain potentiel 20.02
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5001
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.75 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.1 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.10 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2122 % | 110.28 % | 8 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 211.19 | 213.5115 | 205.3861 | 2.5 | 219.83 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 211.19
- Stop Loss: 213.5115
- Take Profit: 205.3861
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 213.5115 - 211.19 = 2.3215
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 211.19 - 205.3861 = 5.8039
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.8039 / 2.3215 = 2.5001
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 205.3861
[entry_price] => 211.19
[stop_loss] => 213.74365
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-06 15:40:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 205.3861
[entry_price] => 211.19
[stop_loss] => 213.9758
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-06 15:45:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 205.3861
[entry_price] => 211.19
[stop_loss] => 214.20795
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-06 16:45:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 205.3861
[entry_price] => 211.19
[stop_loss] => 214.67225
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-06 17:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.099%
(2.3215)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.204% | 0.2R | -0.284% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.242% | 0.2R | -0.379% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.270% | 0.3R | -0.942% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.270% | 0.3R | -1.780% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.270% | 0.3R | -1.780% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.270% | 0.3R | -2.405% | 2.2R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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