Short Trade on PENGU (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 58360.08 PENGU at 0.00602$ per unit. Take profit: 0.005681 (5.69 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006161 (2.27 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 16:09:59
hyperliquid
PENGU
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 16:09
→ 04:05
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.006024$
Qty 58360.0817 PENGU
Size 351.5611$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.005681 (+5.69%)
TP $ 20.02$
SL 0.006161 (-2.27%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.60%
/ -2.1$
MAE -1.21%
MFE +1.74%
0.8R
expires
07 Aug 04:09
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60793)
#37 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 16:00
score du 06/08/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5516
Quality Score
0.455
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 16:02
06/08 16:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#37 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.27 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#37 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.27 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.02×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.75×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.69×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 06/08 16:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 06/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 06/08 15:00 Score : +4 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.57
Transition risk :
0.43
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.74
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 16:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4554
Score SMA
0.5675
Rank
#37
/ 50
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5516
Rank Norm SMA
0.7671
Calculé le
06/08/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4112 | r1h: -0.968% · r4h: -1.533% · r1d: -1.85% · r3d: -2.03% · ema21_slope: -0.0490% · dist_ema21: -1.809% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3952 | rs_1h: -0.965% · rs_4h: -1.208% · rs_1d: -1.22% · rs_3d: -2.90% · beta_24h: 2.242 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2015 | rvol_20: 0.52× · zscore_50: -0.281 · trend: -37.48% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6199 | ADX: 19.5 (weak) · Chop: 43.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.055% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.274%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.681% | 0.3R | -0.100% | 0.0R | 6.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.743% | 0.8R | -0.100% | 0.0R | 17.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.743% | 0.8R | -0.100% | 0.0R | 17.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.743% | 0.8R | -0.100% | 0.0R | 17.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.743% | 0.8R | -1.212% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.743% | 0.8R | -1.212% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 6.31
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | near -0.7ATR | — | 0.74 | bear_high | -3.79% | +0.24 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | range_high |
33%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.67 | range_high | +0.60% | -0.27 | 06/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.55 | range_low | +0.40% | -0.30 | 06/08 15:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | fading | compression | bear_medium |
60%
|
noisy_chop 56% | late | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.57 | range_low | -0.27% | -0.17 | 06/08 15:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 33b | — | 2.483×ATR | p0 | +0.077×ATR | p6 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 2.239×ATR | p16 | -0.427×ATR | p44 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 2.638×ATR | p51 | -1.345×ATR | p92 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 9b | — | 5.428×ATR | p81 | -1.784×ATR | p94 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7263
- reason: down_bo width=1.69×ATR dur=28b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 0.00616108
- tp_price: 0.00568131
- atr:
- score: 0.82629694344824
- expires_at: 2026-08-07T08:09:52.039369
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82629694344824
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.163
- obi_top10 : 0.0789
- micro_price : 0.00602289
- spread_pct : 0.033212
- mid_price : 0.006023
- bid_wall_price : 0.006
- bid_wall_size : 33941292
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.00604
- ask_wall_size : 30920894
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1627
- obi_top5_std : 0.0002
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7064
- aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.0062065
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.0061035
- balance_zone_mid:
0.006155
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785949200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786046400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.6948
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
28
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8263
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786039200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.0061035
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6786
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.3081
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 6.078E-5 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
28
inside_close_ratio
0.6786
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
1.3081
Signaux confirmants (49)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.00602400 | 0% |
| 2 | 16:16 | 0.00602400 | 0% |
| 3 | 16:21 | 0.00601400 | -0.166% |
| 4 | 16:27 | 0.00601400 | -0.166% |
| 5 | 16:34 | 0.00601400 | -0.166% |
| 6 | 16:39 | 0.00600300 | -0.349% |
| 7 | 16:46 | 0.00600300 | -0.349% |
| 8 | 16:51 | 0.00601500 | -0.149% |
| 9 | 16:57 | 0.00601500 | -0.149% |
| 10 | 17:04 | 0.00601500 | -0.149% |
| 11 | 17:21 | 0.00594200 | -1.361% |
| 12 | 17:27 | 0.00594200 | -1.361% |
| 13 | 17:34 | 0.00594200 | -1.361% |
| 14 | 17:39 | 0.00594600 | -1.295% |
| 15 | 17:46 | 0.00594600 | -1.295% |
| 16 | 17:51 | 0.00598400 | -0.664% |
| 17 | 17:57 | 0.00598400 | -0.664% |
| 18 | 18:04 | 0.00598400 | -0.664% |
| 19 | 18:10 | 0.00598200 | -0.697% |
| 20 | 18:16 | 0.00598200 | -0.697% |
| 21 | 18:21 | 0.00598400 | -0.664% |
| 22 | 18:28 | 0.00598400 | -0.664% |
| 23 | 18:34 | 0.00598400 | -0.664% |
| 24 | 18:39 | 0.00597900 | -0.747% |
| 25 | 18:46 | 0.00597900 | -0.747% |
| 26 | 18:52 | 0.00596400 | -0.996% |
| 27 | 18:57 | 0.00596400 | -0.996% |
| 28 | 19:05 | 0.00596400 | -0.996% |
| 29 | 19:22 | 0.00597800 | -0.764% |
| 30 | 19:28 | 0.00597800 | -0.764% |
| 31 | 19:34 | 0.00597800 | -0.764% |
| 32 | 19:39 | 0.00596700 | -0.946% |
| 33 | 19:46 | 0.00596700 | -0.946% |
| 34 | 19:51 | 0.00596800 | -0.93% |
| 35 | 19:57 | 0.00596800 | -0.93% |
| 36 | 20:04 | 0.00596800 | -0.93% |
| 37 | 20:09 | 0.00600600 | -0.299% |
| 38 | 20:16 | 0.00600600 | -0.299% |
| 39 | 21:09 | 0.00600300 | -0.349% |
| 40 | 21:15 | 0.00600300 | -0.349% |
| 41 | 21:21 | 0.00600200 | -0.365% |
| 42 | 21:27 | 0.00600200 | -0.365% |
| 43 | 21:34 | 0.00600200 | -0.365% |
| 44 | 21:39 | 0.00600200 | -0.365% |
| 45 | 21:45 | 0.00600200 | -0.365% |
| 46 | 21:51 | 0.00599700 | -0.448% |
| 47 | 21:57 | 0.00599700 | -0.448% |
| 48 | 22:04 | 0.00599700 | -0.448% |
| 49 | 22:09 | 0.00599800 | -0.432% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7064ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
73%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.163
avg 0.163
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.079
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0060
Micro Price
0.0060
Spread
0.0332%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0060
Size
33,941,292.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0060
Size
30,920,894.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006024 | 0.006161 | 0.005681 | 2.5 | 0.007216 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.006024
- Stop Loss: 0.006161
- Take Profit: 0.005681
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006161 - 0.006024 = 0.000137
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006024 - 0.005681 = 0.000343
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000343 / 0.000137 = 2.5036
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 351.5611 | 100 | 58360.0817 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.000137
Taille de position = 8 / 0.000137 = 58394.16
Taille de position USD = 58394.16 x 0.006024 = 351.77
Donc, tu peux acheter 58394.16 avec un stoploss a 0.006161
Avec un position size USD de 351.77$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 58394.16 x 0.000137 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 58394.16 x 0.000343 = 20.03
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.03$
Résumé
- Taille de position 58394.16
- Taille de position USD 351.77
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.03
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5036
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.69 % | 20.02 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.27 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -2.1 $ | -0.60 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2118 % | 53.28 % | 12 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006024 | 0.006161 | 0.005681 | 2.5 | 0.007216 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.006024
- Stop Loss: 0.006161
- Take Profit: 0.005681
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006161 - 0.006024 = 0.000137
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006024 - 0.005681 = 0.000343
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000343 / 0.000137 = 2.5036
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.274%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.681% | 0.3R | -0.100% | 0.0R | 6.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.743% | 0.8R | -0.100% | 0.0R | 17.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.743% | 0.8R | -0.100% | 0.0R | 17.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.743% | 0.8R | -0.100% | 0.0R | 17.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.743% | 0.8R | -1.212% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.743% | 0.8R | -1.212% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.