Short Trade on XPL (CatchTheWave)
With 16185.81 XPL at 0.076$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07502 (1.29 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0765 (0.66 %)
Short Trade on XPL (CatchTheWave)
With 16185.81 XPL at 0.076$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07502 (1.29 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0765 (0.66 %)
Position
Entry 0.076$
Qty 16185.8131 XPL
Size 1230.1865$ (margin 100$) (leverage 12)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07502 (+1.29%)
TP $ 15.86$
SL 0.0765 (-0.66%)
SL $ 8.09$
RR 1.96
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4753
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.73×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.09×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.36×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 06/08 15:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.522502 15m : 0.307674 |
1H_regime : range_high 15m_regime : bull_medium_confirmed 5m_regime : bull_medium_confirmed |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 06/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 06/08 15:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3997 | r1h: -1.267% · r4h: -0.159% · r1d: -2.80% · r3d: -2.43% · ema21_slope: -0.1122% · dist_ema21: 0.037% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4124 | rs_1h: -0.968% · rs_4h: 0.386% · rs_1d: -2.22% · rs_3d: -3.30% · beta_24h: 1.265 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2359 | rvol_20: 0.56× · zscore_50: -0.181 · trend: -20.66% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6960 | ADX: 35.1 (trend) · Chop: 50.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.410% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.001% | 1.5R | -0.750% | 1.1R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.092% | 1.7R | -0.750% | 1.1R | 1.5× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.684% | 2.6R | -0.750% | 1.1R | 2.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.684% | 2.6R | -1.950% | 3.0R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.684% | 2.6R | -5.075% | 7.7R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
49%
|
noisy_chop 33% | late | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.51 | bear_high | -3.79% | -0.86 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -1.1ATR | — | 0.41 | range_high | +0.60% | -0.32 | 06/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | range_high |
42%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid | — | near -1.4ATR | 0.53 | range_low | +0.40% | +0.17 | 06/08 15:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion | bull_medium_confirmed |
64%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.37 | range_low | -0.26% | +0.18 | 06/08 15:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 33b | — | 6.936×ATR | p85 | -0.292×ATR | p27 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 1.651×ATR | p0 | -0.141×ATR | p17 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 1b | — | 1.536×ATR | p2 | +1.129×ATR | p84 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 4b | — | 2.881×ATR | p64 | +1.011×ATR | p77 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
64534.9
-0.00233976
64384
0.522502
64635.1
-0.0037929
64390
0.307674
64094.5
0.00457824
64388
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0.6667
1.0614
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1
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0.4262
1.5987
0.3309
0.6472
0.2128
0.92
0.3549
0.596
0.5696
0.4283
0.5158
-3.4144
3.6379
1
0
1
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 12:45:00 | 0.073598 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 13:25:00 | 0.072912 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 13:40:00 | 0.073796 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 14:15:00 | 0.0733 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 14:55:00 | 0.075 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 15:50:00 | 0.074846 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 16:10:00 | 0.073848 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 17:50:00 | 0.075901 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 18:50:00 | 0.074241 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 19:45:00 | 0.076052 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 06:15:00 | 0.073242 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 07:30:00 | 0.073966 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 08:30:00 | 0.072006 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 11:45:00 | 0.073884 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 13:15:00 | 0.072912 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 14:45:00 | 0.075 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 16:00:00 | 0.073848 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 17:45:00 | 0.075901 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 18:45:00 | 0.074241 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 19:45:00 | 0.076052 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 19:00:00 | 0.076282 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 06:00:00 | 0.078269 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-04 14:00:00 | 0.076177 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-04 19:00:00 | 0.079029 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-05 01:00:00 | 0.077722 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 05:00:00 | 0.079925 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-05 13:00:00 | 0.076298 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 21:00:00 | 0.074439 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 03:00:00 | 0.07169 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 19:00:00 | 0.075938 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.076 | 0.0765 | 0.07502 | 1.96 | 0.08423 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0765 - 0.076 = 0.0005
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.076 - 0.07502 = 0.00097999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00097999999999999 / 0.0005 = 1.96
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1230.1865 | 100 | 16185.8131 | 12.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0005 = 16000
Taille de position USD = 16000 x 0.076 = 1216
Donc, tu peux acheter 16000 avec un stoploss a 0.0765
Avec un position size USD de 1216$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 16000 x 0.0005 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 16000 x 0.00097999999999999 = 15.68
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.68$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.29 % | 15.86 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.66 % | 8.09 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.09 $ | -0.66 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.75 % | 114 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.076 | 0.0765 | 0.07502 | 1.96 | 0.08423 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0765 - 0.076 = 0.0005
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.076 - 0.07502 = 0.00097999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00097999999999999 / 0.0005 = 1.96
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.001% | 1.5R | -0.750% | 1.1R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.092% | 1.7R | -0.750% | 1.1R | 1.5× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.684% | 2.6R | -0.750% | 1.1R | 2.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.684% | 2.6R | -1.950% | 3.0R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.684% | 2.6R | -5.075% | 7.7R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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