Short Trade on JUP (CatchTheWave)
With 10951.4 JUP at 0.184$ per unit. Take profit: 0.183 (0.76 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1852 (0.43 %)
Short Trade on JUP (CatchTheWave)
With 10951.4 JUP at 0.184$ per unit. Take profit: 0.183 (0.76 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1852 (0.43 %)
Position
Entry 0.1844$
Qty 10951.4031 JUP
Size 2019.9863$ (margin 100$) (leverage 20)
Risk Setup
TP 0.183 (+0.76%)
TP $ 15.33$
SL 0.1852 (-0.43%)
SL $ 8.76$
RR 1.75
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1800
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 1.82×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_medium Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 07/08 02:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.34466 15m : 0.453293 |
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : bull_low_confirmed 5m_regime : bull_low_confirmed |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 06/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 07/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 07/08 02:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3813 | r1h: -0.469% · r4h: -0.408% · r1d: -3.73% · r3d: -6.78% · ema21_slope: -0.1158% · dist_ema21: -0.976% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3780 | rs_1h: -0.498% · rs_4h: -0.182% · rs_1d: -2.78% · rs_3d: -7.52% · beta_24h: 1.127 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2642 | rvol_20: 1.00× · zscore_50: -0.246 · trend: -52.07% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6627 | ADX: 36.0 (trend) · Chop: 55.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.775% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.065% | 0.2R | -0.900% | 2.1R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.065% | 0.2R | -1.697% | 3.9R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.065% | 0.2R | -1.779% | 4.1R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.407% | 0.9R | -1.779% | 4.1R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.072% | 4.8R | -1.779% | 4.1R | 1.2× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.65 | bear_high | -3.92% | -0.54 | 06/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | normal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.57 | range_high | +0.45% | -0.65 | 07/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | near -0.5ATR | 0.66 | range_low | +0.32% | +0.02 | 07/08 02:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bull_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | — | range_low | -0.08% | +0.20 | 07/08 02:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 36b | — | 7.577×ATR | p95 | -0.789×ATR | p66 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 30b | — | 5.547×ATR | p93 | -0.448×ATR | p45 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 7b | — | 1.837×ATR | p15 | +0.34×ATR | p35 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 3b | — | 6.067×ATR | p100 | +3.31×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
64297.7
0.000735639
64345
0.34466
64468.4
-0.00245798
64310
0.453293
64091
0.00346255
64313
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-7.6639
3.0148
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:38 | 0.18445000 | +0.027% |
| 2 | 02:44 | 0.18448000 | +0.043% |
| 3 | 02:50 | 0.18428000 | -0.065% |
| 4 | 02:56 | 0.18480000 | +0.217% |
| 5 | 03:03 | 0.18467000 | +0.146% |
| 6 | 03:08 | 0.18507000 | +0.363% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 01:10:00 | 0.18031 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 02:10:00 | 0.18029 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 02:40:00 | 0.1816 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 03:05:00 | 0.18087 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 03:20:00 | 0.18087 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 03:35:00 | 0.1817 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 04:00:00 | 0.1803 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 05:00:00 | 0.18142 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 05:30:00 | 0.17961 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 06:25:00 | 0.18483 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 16:15:00 | 0.18219 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 17:00:00 | 0.18417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 19:30:00 | 0.18091 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 21:45:00 | 0.18252 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 23:15:00 | 0.17942 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 02:00:00 | 0.18029 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 03:30:00 | 0.1817 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 04:00:00 | 0.1803 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 05:30:00 | 0.17961 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 06:15:00 | 0.18483 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 20:00:00 | 0.19162 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-05 01:00:00 | 0.18673 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 11:00:00 | 0.18569 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 20:00:00 | 0.19029 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 02:00:00 | 0.18625 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 13:00:00 | 0.18063 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 17:00:00 | 0.18417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 23:00:00 | 0.17942 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 05:00:00 | 0.17961 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 06:00:00 | 0.18483 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1844 | 0.1852 | 0.183 | 1.75 | 0.2271 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1852 - 0.1844 = 0.0008
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1844 - 0.183 = 0.0014
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0014 / 0.0008 = 1.75
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019.9863 | 100 | 10951.4031 | 20.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0008 = 10000
Taille de position USD = 10000 x 0.1844 = 1844
Donc, tu peux acheter 10000 avec un stoploss a 0.1852
Avec un position size USD de 1844$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 10000 x 0.0008 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 10000 x 0.0014 = 14
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 14$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.76 % | 15.33 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.43 % | 8.76 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.76 $ | -0.43 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5803 % | 133.77 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1844 | 0.1852 | 0.183 | 1.75 | 0.2271 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1852 - 0.1844 = 0.0008
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1844 - 0.183 = 0.0014
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0014 / 0.0008 = 1.75
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.065% | 0.2R | -0.900% | 2.1R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.065% | 0.2R | -1.697% | 3.9R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.065% | 0.2R | -1.779% | 4.1R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.407% | 0.9R | -1.779% | 4.1R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.072% | 4.8R | -1.779% | 4.1R | 1.2× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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