Short Trade on JUP (CatchTheWave)
With 12219.9 JUP at 0.185$ per unit. Take profit: 0.184 (0.7 %) & Stop Loss: 0.186 (0.38 %)
Short Trade on JUP (CatchTheWave)
With 12219.9 JUP at 0.185$ per unit. Take profit: 0.184 (0.7 %) & Stop Loss: 0.186 (0.38 %)
Position
Entry 0.1853$
Qty 12219.897 JUP
Size 2264.7135$ (margin 100$) (leverage 23)
Risk Setup
TP 0.184 (+0.7%)
TP $ 15.89$
SL 0.186 (-0.38%)
SL $ 8.55$
RR 1.86
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2869
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 1.82×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_medium Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 07/08 03:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.343432 15m : 0.456157 |
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : bull_medium_confirmed 5m_regime : bull_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 06/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 07/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 07/08 02:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5123 | r1h: 1.457% · r4h: 1.955% · r1d: -1.54% · r3d: -4.27% · ema21_slope: -0.0889% · dist_ema21: 1.108% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5463 | rs_1h: 1.415% · rs_4h: 2.002% · rs_1d: -0.78% · rs_3d: -5.35% · beta_24h: 1.342 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7004 | rvol_20: 2.94× · zscore_50: 0.612 · trend: 2.00% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6741 | ADX: 32.8 (trend) · Chop: 50.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.855% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.119% | 0.3R | -1.204% | 3.2R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.119% | 0.3R | -1.204% | 3.2R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.119% | 0.3R | -1.284% | 3.4R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.198% | 3.2R | -1.284% | 3.4R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.547% | 6.7R | -1.284% | 3.4R | 2.0× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.65 | bear_high | -3.92% | -0.54 | 06/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | normal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.57 | range_high | +0.45% | -0.65 | 07/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | — | — | 0.65 | range_low | +0.25% | +0.17 | 07/08 02:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bull_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | — | range_low | -0.14% | +0.22 | 07/08 02:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 36b | — | 7.577×ATR | p95 | -0.789×ATR | p66 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 30b | — | 5.547×ATR | p93 | -0.448×ATR | p45 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 7b | — | 3.276×ATR | p67 | +1.693×ATR | p96 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 4b | — | 6.084×ATR | p100 | +2.541×ATR | p98 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
64297.4
0.000366003
64321
0.343432
64453.9
-0.00206222
64321
0.456157
64083.3
0.00300619
64276
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0.506
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0.7407
0.3072
-8.0725
3.5792
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:14 | 0.18533000 | +0.016% |
| 2 | 03:20 | 0.18515000 | -0.081% |
| 3 | 03:26 | 0.18546000 | +0.086% |
| 4 | 03:33 | 0.18537000 | +0.038% |
| 5 | 03:38 | 0.18606000 | +0.41% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 02:40:00 | 0.1816 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 03:05:00 | 0.18087 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 03:20:00 | 0.18087 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 03:35:00 | 0.1817 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 04:00:00 | 0.1803 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 05:00:00 | 0.18142 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 05:30:00 | 0.17961 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 06:25:00 | 0.18483 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 06:50:00 | 0.18428 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 07:10:00 | 0.18547 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 16:15:00 | 0.18219 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 17:00:00 | 0.18417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 19:30:00 | 0.18091 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 21:45:00 | 0.18252 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 23:15:00 | 0.17942 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 02:00:00 | 0.18029 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 03:30:00 | 0.1817 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 04:00:00 | 0.1803 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 05:30:00 | 0.17961 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 07:00:00 | 0.18547 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 20:00:00 | 0.19162 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-05 01:00:00 | 0.18673 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 11:00:00 | 0.18569 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 20:00:00 | 0.19029 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 02:00:00 | 0.18625 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 13:00:00 | 0.18063 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 17:00:00 | 0.18417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 23:00:00 | 0.17942 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 05:00:00 | 0.17961 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 06:00:00 | 0.18503 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1853 | 0.186 | 0.184 | 1.86 | 0.2261 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.186 - 0.1853 = 0.00070000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1853 - 0.184 = 0.0013
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0013 / 0.00070000000000001 = 1.8571
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2264.7135 | 100 | 12219.897 | 23.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00070000000000001 = 11428.57
Taille de position USD = 11428.57 x 0.1853 = 2117.71
Donc, tu peux acheter 11428.57 avec un stoploss a 0.186
Avec un position size USD de 2117.71$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 11428.57 x 0.00070000000000001 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 11428.57 x 0.0013 = 14.86
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 14.86$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.7 % | 15.89 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.38 % | 8.55 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.56 $ | -0.38 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4101 % | 108.55 % | 4 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1853 | 0.186 | 0.184 | 1.86 | 0.2261 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.186 - 0.1853 = 0.00070000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1853 - 0.184 = 0.0013
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0013 / 0.00070000000000001 = 1.8571
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.119% | 0.3R | -1.204% | 3.2R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.119% | 0.3R | -1.204% | 3.2R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.119% | 0.3R | -1.284% | 3.4R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.198% | 3.2R | -1.284% | 3.4R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.547% | 6.7R | -1.284% | 3.4R | 2.0× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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