Short Trade on AVAX (CatchTheWave)
With 749.21 AVAX at 6.479$ per unit. Take profit: 6.4571 (0.33 %) & Stop Loss: 6.4892 (0.17 %)
Short Trade on AVAX (CatchTheWave)
With 749.21 AVAX at 6.479$ per unit. Take profit: 6.4571 (0.33 %) & Stop Loss: 6.4892 (0.17 %)
Position
Entry 6.4785$
Qty 749.2082 AVAX
Size 4853.7452$ (margin 100$) (leverage 49)
Risk Setup
TP 6.4571 (+0.33%)
TP $ 16.03$
SL 6.4892 (-0.17%)
SL $ 8.02$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4554
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.24×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.20×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 07/08 21:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.469949 15m : 0.741765 |
1H_regime : range_medium 15m_regime : bull_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 07/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 07/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 07/08 21:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4650 | r1h: 0.011% · r4h: -0.203% · r1d: 0.27% · r3d: -3.47% · ema21_slope: -0.0224% · dist_ema21: -0.103% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4506 | rs_1h: 0.034% · rs_4h: -0.096% · rs_1d: -0.64% · rs_3d: -4.89% · beta_24h: 1.040 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5648 | rvol_20: 2.22× · zscore_50: 0.498 · trend: -7.51% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5830 | ADX: 19.3 (weak) · Chop: 47.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.543% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 144 |
computed 3 weeks ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | near -0.1ATR | 0.79 | bear_high | -3.08% | -0.09 | 07/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late | — | — | 0.63 | bull_high | +1.18% | -0.49 | 07/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near 0.2ATR | near -0.2ATR | 0.59 | bull_low | +0.82% | -0.02 | 07/08 21:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | range_low |
37%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | — | near 0.1ATR | 0.58 | range_low | +0.16% | +0.04 | 07/08 21:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 7b | — | 1.386×ATR | p0 | -0.25×ATR | p29 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 24b | — | 5.8×ATR | p95 | -0.188×ATR | p21 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 0.544×ATR | p2 | +0.506×ATR | p56 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 6b | — | 3.826×ATR | p77 | +1.811×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
64834.4
0.000856712
64890
0.469949
64743.5
0.00219976
64886
0.741765
64412.5
0.00727286
64881
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6.4152
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8
0.9474
0.5198
0.5887
3.688
0.6
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1.4375
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0.8243
0.3231
0.04
-0.1164
0.4945
0.5012
0.5519
0.2029
-14.8598
3.7814
1
0
1
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 19:20:00 | 6.4522 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 19:50:00 | 6.4358 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 20:35:00 | 6.4342 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 21:40:00 | 6.4703 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 22:55:00 | 6.4175 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 23:15:00 | 6.4397 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 23:30:00 | 6.42 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 23:55:00 | 6.4307 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 00:05:00 | 6.4152 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 01:35:00 | 6.4845 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 09:15:00 | 6.4723 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 10:30:00 | 6.4278 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 12:30:00 | 6.5137 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 14:45:00 | 6.4054 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 16:00:00 | 6.457 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 17:15:00 | 6.3569 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 19:15:00 | 6.4522 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 21:30:00 | 6.4703 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 00:00:00 | 6.4152 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 01:30:00 | 6.4825 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 13:00:00 | 6.5356 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 20:00:00 | 6.6988 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 02:00:00 | 6.6115 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 05:00:00 | 6.7027 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 10:00:00 | 6.3559 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 17:00:00 | 6.5038 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 05:00:00 | 6.3687 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 12:00:00 | 6.5137 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 17:00:00 | 6.3569 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 01:00:00 | 6.4825 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4785 | 6.4892 | 6.4571 | 2 | 7.2897 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4892 - 6.4785 = 0.0107
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.4785 - 6.4571 = 0.021400000000001
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.021400000000001 / 0.0107 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4853.7452 | 100 | 749.2082 | 49.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0107 = 747.66
Taille de position USD = 747.66 x 6.4785 = 4843.72
Donc, tu peux acheter 747.66 avec un stoploss a 6.4892
Avec un position size USD de 4843.72$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 747.66 x 0.0107 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 747.66 x 0.021400000000001 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.33 % | 16.03 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.17 % | 8.02 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.02 $ | -0.17 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6933 % | 1025 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4785 | 6.4892 | 6.4571 | 2 | 7.2897 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 6.4892 - 6.4785 = 0.0107
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 6.4785 - 6.4571 = 0.021400000000001
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.021400000000001 / 0.0107 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.693% | 10.3R | 0.0× | 144 |
computed 3 weeks ago
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