Short Trade on XRP (CatchTheWave)
With 4526.94 XRP at 1.037$ per unit. Take profit: 1.0332 (0.34 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0385 (0.17 %)
Short Trade on XRP (CatchTheWave)
With 4526.94 XRP at 1.037$ per unit. Take profit: 1.0332 (0.34 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0385 (0.17 %)
Position
Entry 1.0367$
Qty 4526.9353 XRP
Size 4693.0738$ (margin 100$) (leverage 47)
Risk Setup
TP 1.0332 (+0.34%)
TP $ 15.84$
SL 1.0385 (-0.17%)
SL $ 8.15$
RR 1.94
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5918
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.21×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.20×ATR |
| 1d | near | -3.09×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 07/08 23:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.330023 15m : 0.644854 |
1H_regime : bear_medium 15m_regime : bull_low_confirmed 5m_regime : bull_low_confirmed |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 07/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 07/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 07/08 23:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4884 | r1h: 0.126% · r4h: 1.059% · r1d: 0.08% · r3d: -4.01% · ema21_slope: -0.0562% · dist_ema21: 0.375% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4757 | rs_1h: 0.116% · rs_4h: 0.997% · rs_1d: -0.74% · rs_3d: -4.87% · beta_24h: 1.186 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1268 | rvol_20: 0.18× · zscore_50: -1.099 · trend: -54.48% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6557 | ADX: 23.8 (weak) · Chop: 43.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.571% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.260% | 1.5R | -0.212% | 1.2R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.405% | 2.3R | -0.212% | 1.2R | 1.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.492% | 2.8R | -0.212% | 1.2R | 2.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.492% | 2.8R | -0.357% | 2.1R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.492% | 2.8R | -0.859% | 4.9R | 0.6× | 144 |
computed 3 weeks ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | near -3.1ATR | — | 0.86 | bear_high | -3.08% | -0.62 | 07/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.82 | bull_high | +1.23% | -0.50 | 07/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | grind | compression | bear_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | near -1.1ATR | 0.76 | bull_low | +0.89% | -0.03 | 07/08 23:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | strong | explosive | normal | bull_low_confirmed |
51%
|
ranging_calm 54% | late | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.62 | range_low | +0.29% | +0.16 | 07/08 23:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 18b | — | 4.812×ATR | p77 | -1.052×ATR | p86 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 0.773×ATR | p0 | +0.075×ATR | p10 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 10b | — | 4.035×ATR | p80 | +1.385×ATR | p90 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 20b | — | 7.905×ATR | p97 | +2.568×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
64908.5
0.0012552
64990
0.330023
64775.2
0.00331459
64990
0.644854
64400.8
0.00900868
64981
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4.2269
1
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0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:49 | 1.03670000 | 0% |
| 2 | 23:55 | 1.03760000 | +0.087% |
| 3 | 00:02 | 1.03860000 | +0.183% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 19:40:00 | 1.0254 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 20:25:00 | 1.0258 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 21:15:00 | 1.027 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 21:40:00 | 1.0216 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 22:35:00 | 1.0184 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 23:45:00 | 1.0232 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 00:00:00 | 1.0198 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 02:05:00 | 1.0311 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 02:30:00 | 1.0291 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 03:35:00 | 1.0381 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 05:30:00 | 1.0145 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 10:15:00 | 1.0368 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 11:45:00 | 1.0315 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 12:30:00 | 1.0421 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 14:15:00 | 1.0252 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 16:00:00 | 1.0299 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 17:00:00 | 1.012 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 21:15:00 | 1.027 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 22:30:00 | 1.0184 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 03:30:00 | 1.0381 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 13:00:00 | 1.0543 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 18:00:00 | 1.0726 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 04:00:00 | 1.0393 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 08:00:00 | 1.0574 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 15:00:00 | 1.0536 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 01:00:00 | 1.0385 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 05:00:00 | 1.0145 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 12:00:00 | 1.0421 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 17:00:00 | 1.012 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 03:00:00 | 1.0381 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0367 | 1.0385 | 1.0332 | 1.94 | 1.3897 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0385 - 1.0367 = 0.0018
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.0367 - 1.0332 = 0.0035000000000001
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0035000000000001 / 0.0018 = 1.9444
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4693.0738 | 100 | 4526.9353 | 47.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0018 = 4444.44
Taille de position USD = 4444.44 x 1.0367 = 4607.55
Donc, tu peux acheter 4444.44 avec un stoploss a 1.0385
Avec un position size USD de 4607.55$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 4444.44 x 0.0018 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 4444.44 x 0.0035000000000001 = 15.56
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.56$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.34 % | 15.84 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.17 % | 8.15 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.15 $ | -0.17 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.2122 % | 122.24 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0367 | 1.0385 | 1.0332 | 1.94 | 1.3897 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0385 - 1.0367 = 0.0018
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.0367 - 1.0332 = 0.0035000000000001
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0035000000000001 / 0.0018 = 1.9444
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.260% | 1.5R | -0.212% | 1.2R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.405% | 2.3R | -0.212% | 1.2R | 1.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.492% | 2.8R | -0.212% | 1.2R | 2.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.492% | 2.8R | -0.357% | 2.1R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.492% | 2.8R | -0.859% | 4.9R | 0.6× | 144 |
computed 3 weeks ago
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