Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 445434.3 PENGU at 0.00629$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006331 (0.57 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006277 (0.29 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 445434.3 PENGU at 0.00629$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006331 (0.57 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006277 (0.29 %)
Position
Entry 0.006295$
Qty 445434.2984 PENGU
Size 2804.0089$ (margin 100$) (leverage 28)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006331 (+0.57%)
TP $ 16.04$
SL 0.006277 (-0.29%)
SL $ 8.02$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.8727
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.46×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.52×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 08/08 19:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.105675 15m : 0.107912 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : range_medium 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 07/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 08/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 08/08 18:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5830 | r1h: -0.488% · r4h: -0.331% · r1d: 5.35% · r3d: 1.87% · ema21_slope: 0.1758% · dist_ema21: 1.042% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5540 | rs_1h: -0.422% · rs_4h: -0.224% · rs_1d: 5.21% · rs_3d: 1.33% · beta_24h: 3.179 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2232 | rvol_20: 0.38× · zscore_50: -0.568 · trend: -4.24% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8570 | ADX: 47.6 (trend) · Chop: 43.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.909% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.413% | 1.4R | -0.445% | 1.6R | 0.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.906% | 3.2R | -0.445% | 1.6R | 2.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.906% | 3.2R | -0.763% | 2.7R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.906% | 3.2R | -0.890% | 3.1R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.255% | 4.4R | -0.890% | 3.1R | 1.4× | 144 |
computed 2 weeks ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.74 | bear_high | -2.76% | +0.21 | 07/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | — | near -0.5ATR | 0.66 | bull_medium | +1.20% | +0.26 | 08/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion | bull_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | — | 0.57 | range_low | +0.54% | +0.35 | 08/08 18:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_medium |
61%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.41 | range_low | -0.02% | +0.06 | 08/08 18:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 35b | — | 1.979×ATR | p0 | +0.569×ATR | p57 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 12b | — | 3.543×ATR | p65 | +1.081×ATR | p88 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 1b | — | 1.459×ATR | p0 | +0.311×ATR | p33 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 3.962×ATR | p77 | -0.84×ATR | p71 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
65028.1
-0.00178574
64912
0.105675
64979
-0.00103159
64912
0.107912
64706.3
0.00317837
64912
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0.006417
198
0.7456
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1
0.5585
0.5057
0.6725
0.7803
0.5879
0.7972
0.1994
0.1296
1
1.0289
2.4117
0.5
0.5
1
1
1
0.5266
0.3487
6.2124
0.55
1.7241
4.3763
2.4117
0.6566
0.3394
0.84
0.1145
0.4934
0.475
0.9437
0.7972
-1.7187
6.7556
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:04 | 0.00629500 | 0% |
| 2 | 19:09 | 0.00629600 | +0.016% |
| 3 | 19:15 | 0.00628400 | -0.175% |
| 4 | 19:21 | 0.00628900 | -0.095% |
| 5 | 19:27 | 0.00627700 | -0.286% |
Market Structure Score: 2
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 16:50:00 | 0.006278 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 17:35:00 | 0.006321 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 18:05:00 | 0.006284 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 18:25:00 | 0.006284 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 18:45:00 | 0.006404 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 19:30:00 | 0.006322 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 19:35:00 | 0.006366 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 21:00:00 | 0.006417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 22:10:00 | 0.00635 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 22:55:00 | 0.006293 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 06:15:00 | 0.006312 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 09:30:00 | 0.006167 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 11:45:00 | 0.00624 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 12:15:00 | 0.00624 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 13:00:00 | 0.006202 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 15:00:00 | 0.006343 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 16:45:00 | 0.006278 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 18:45:00 | 0.006404 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 21:00:00 | 0.006417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 22:45:00 | 0.006293 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 13:00:00 | 0.005991 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 00:00:00 | 0.006372 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 07:00:00 | 0.006328 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 13:00:00 | 0.00608 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 15:00:00 | 0.006206 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 21:00:00 | 0.005919 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 06:00:00 | 0.006097 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 17:00:00 | 0.005948 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 06:00:00 | 0.006312 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 21:00:00 | 0.006417 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006295 | 0.006277 | 0.006331 | 2 | 0.009389 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006277 - 0.006295 = -1.8000000000001E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006295 - 0.006331 = -3.6E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -3.6E-5 / -1.8000000000001E-5 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2804.0089 | 100 | 445434.2984 | 28.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -1.8000000000001E-5 = -444444.44
Taille de position USD = -444444.44 x 0.006295 = -2797.78
Donc, tu peux acheter -444444.44 avec un stoploss a 0.006277
Avec un position size USD de -2797.78$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -444444.44 x -1.8000000000001E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -444444.44 x -3.6E-5 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.57 % | 16.04 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.29 % | 8.02 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.02 $ | -0.29 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4448 % | 155.58 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006295 | 0.006277 | 0.006331 | 2 | 0.009389 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006277 - 0.006295 = -1.8000000000001E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006295 - 0.006331 = -3.6E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -3.6E-5 / -1.8000000000001E-5 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.413% | 1.4R | -0.445% | 1.6R | 0.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.906% | 3.2R | -0.445% | 1.6R | 2.0× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.906% | 3.2R | -0.763% | 2.7R | 1.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.906% | 3.2R | -0.890% | 3.1R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.255% | 4.4R | -0.890% | 3.1R | 1.4× | 144 |
computed 2 weeks ago
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