Observation #12314

← Research Observations / #12314

🪙 XPL page 📊 Market Context

🪙 XPL

Market snapshot at

2026-10-02 05:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

04:00–05:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

05:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

06:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$0.096446

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $23,826,149

Synced: 10-02 06:02 +1h

← Prev (10-02 04:00) Next (10-02 06:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · XPL — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_expansion

Environmenttrend_expansion

Participationmixed_dispersion

Leadershipalts

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.6611

evaluated_at: 2026-10-02 04:46:06 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate0.001250%

Annualized10.95%

Premium-0.00008304

Settled at: 2026-10-02 05:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)909,950,204.00

OI (USD)$87,629,115

Mark price$0.096301

Funding next0.001250%

Day vol (USD)$24,787,984

Snapshot at: 2026-10-02 04:55:05

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h +0.052%

Change 4h -1.225%

Change 24h -1.740%

Z-score 7d 0.01

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.001250%

Avg 24h 0.001250%

Percentile 7d 67.3%

Percentile 30d 76.4%

Δ 4h 0.000000%

🔀 Price × OI

↓↓ Price ↓ · OI ↓

Price Δ 4h -2.468%

Divergence -0.30

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

3.556

OI / Vol z-7d

1.93

OI momentum 4h

-2.289%

Funding +ratio 24h

100.0%

Sign streak

+365 crowded

Time: 2026-10-02 04:00:00 OI observed: 03:55:05 (5min ago) Funding at: 04:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (4) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197694	fresh	9h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.665	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 39%	early 6b 0.0ATR	—	near -0.2ATR	0.81	88%	↑ +0.84	below_value	-8.06	—	#105827	0.54	bull_high	+13.92%	+0.54	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:26	↗
4h #200863	fresh	1h	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.614	compression	range_high	36%	noisy_chop 36%	early 9b 0.0ATR	—	—	0.74	62%	↓ -0.24	above_value	+0.06	—	#107227	0.48	bull_high	+4.12%	-0.36	02/10 00:00 upd 02/10 04:17	↗
1h anchor #201243	fresh	0s	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.618	compression	bear_high	53%	noisy_chop 33%	early 4b -0.2ATR	—	near -0.2ATR	0.93	33%	↓ -0.40	above_value	-0.17	—	#107461	0.47	bull_medium	+2.38%	-0.21	02/10 04:00 upd 02/10 05:11	↗
15m #201166	fresh	0s	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.588	expansion	range_high	37%	noisy_chop 38%	mid 3b -1.2ATR	—	—	0.95	54%	↔ -0.10	above_value	+0.06	—	#107227	0.65	bull_low	+1.45%	-0.18	02/10 04:45 upd 02/10 05:03	↗
5m	—	—	Pas de snapshot

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #171812	fresh	2026-10-02 04:00	0s	0.410	0.407	75/77	2026-10-02 05:00	2026-10-02 05:37
4h #171732	fresh	2026-10-02 00:00	1h	0.362	0.441	77/78	2026-10-02 04:00	2026-10-02 04:39
1d #170959	fresh	2026-09-30 20:00	9h	0.450	0.585	65/77	2026-10-01 20:00	2026-10-01 20:21

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #107383	fresh	2026-10-02 04:45	0s	$0.097028	$0.097786	$0.094901	value	-0.75	3.70
7d #107461	fresh	2026-10-02 04:00	0s	$0.096719	$0.111564	$0.092841	hvn	-0.17	11.39
30d #107305	fresh	2026-10-02 00:00	1h	$0.095188	$0.110166	$0.084314	hvn	0.55	6.12

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.093190 → $0.093826	0.68%	0.82	0.81	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.002620	+3.36
below	$0.098226 → $0.099057	0.84%	1.07	0.69	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.001780	-2.29

Prix observé : $0.096446. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.090434 → $0.093376	3.20%	1.79	0.70	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.003070	+1.87
below	$0.102203 → $0.103272	1.04%	0.65	0.55	reversion	✓	↓ $0.005757	-3.51
below	$0.118518 → $0.122530	3.33%	2.44	0.75	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.022072	-13.43

Prix observé : $0.096446. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.076517 → $0.080621	5.22%	0.97	0.73	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.015825	+3.74
below	$0.117963 → $0.125760	6.40%	1.84	0.73	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.021517	-5.09

Prix observé : $0.096446. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
4h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
12h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1d	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-02T08:46:06+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 834,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-02T09:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-02T08:55:05+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 295,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-02T08:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}