Observation #15578

← Research Observations / #15578

🪙 ARB page 📊 Market Context

🪙 ARB

Market snapshot at

2026-10-04 00:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

23:00–00:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

00:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

01:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$0.201540

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $10,851,878

Synced: 10-04 01:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-03 23:00) Next (10-04 01:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · ARB — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_expansion

Environmenttrend_expansion

Participationbtc_led_risk_on

Leadershipbtc

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.4108

evaluated_at: 2026-10-03 23:46:01 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate0.001250%

Annualized10.95%

Premium-0.00037130

Settled at: 2026-10-04 00:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)118,584,047.20

OI (USD)$23,902,986

Mark price$0.201570

Funding next0.001250%

Day vol (USD)$10,756,553

Snapshot at: 2026-10-03 23:55:03

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h -0.104%

Change 4h +0.150%

Change 24h -1.889%

Z-score 7d 0.07

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.000593%

Avg 24h 0.001189%

Percentile 7d 2.4% bottom

Percentile 30d 3.1%

Δ 4h -0.000657%

🔀 Price × OI

↑↑ Price ↑ · OI ↑

Price Δ 4h +0.134%

Divergence -0.13

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

2.189

OI / Vol z-7d

0.87

OI momentum 4h

+1.508%

Funding +ratio 24h

100.0%

Sign streak

+27 crowded

Time: 2026-10-03 23:00:00 OI observed: 22:55:05 (5min ago) Funding at: 23:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (4) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #217291	fresh	4h	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.620	expansion	bull_high	70%	noisy_chop 39%	early 10b 0.3ATR	—	—	0.32	82%	↓ -0.61	above_value	+0.03	—	#114241	0.58	bull_high	+13.15%	+1.00	02/10 20:00 upd 03/10 20:17	↗
4h #218605	fresh	0s	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.518	compression	range_high	37%	noisy_chop 35%	early 8b 0.0ATR	—	—	0.64	14%	↔ -0.05	above_value	+0.15	—	#114834	0.34	bull_high	+2.05%	-0.16	03/10 20:00 upd 04/10 00:11	↗
1h anchor #218604	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.615	compression	range_high	42%	noisy_chop 38%	early 3b 0.5ATR	near -0.6ATR	near -0.6ATR	0.15	1%	↓ -0.79	above_value	+0.15	—	#114834	0.52	range_low	+0.25%	+0.23	03/10 23:00 upd 04/10 00:11	↗
15m #218541	fresh	0s	↑ up	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.645	normal	range_medium	44%	noisy_chop 41%	early 4b 0.5ATR	—	near 0.2ATR	0.06	1%	↓ -0.70	above_value	-0.14	—	#114704	0.61	range_low	+0.02%	+0.08	03/10 23:45 upd 04/10 00:00	↗
5m	—	—	Pas de snapshot

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #176000	fresh	2026-10-03 23:00	0s	0.474	0.522	33/66	2026-10-04 00:00	2026-10-04 00:35
4h #176065	fresh	2026-10-03 20:00	0s	0.447	0.469	47/66	2026-10-04 00:00	2026-10-04 00:37
1d #175736	fresh	2026-10-02 20:00	4h	0.483	0.651	49/66	2026-10-03 20:00	2026-10-03 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #114769	fresh	2026-10-03 23:45	0s	$0.201229	$0.203564	$0.200205	hvn	0.36	3.89
7d #114834	fresh	2026-10-03 23:00	0s	$0.201214	$0.213592	$0.196953	hvn	0.15	7.61
30d #114899	fresh	2026-10-03 20:00	0s	$0.221355	$0.231482	$0.160060	value	-3.30	11.65

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.195290 → $0.196437	0.59%	1.33	0.83	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.005103	+5.91
below	$0.204301 → $0.205120	0.40%	0.95	0.87	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.002761	-3.20

Prix observé : $0.201540. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.188430 → $0.191677	1.71%	1.48	0.84	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.009863	+4.51
below	$0.216027 → $0.219273	1.49%	1.48	0.78	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.014487	-6.63
below	$0.231448 → $0.237130	2.43%	2.60	0.78	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.029908	-13.68

Prix observé : $0.201540. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.128080 → $0.132344	3.27%	0.70	0.66	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.069196	+11.29
above	$0.184578 → $0.188842	2.28%	0.70	0.38	reversion	—	↑ $0.012698	+2.07
below	$0.235746 → $0.256000	8.24%	3.30	0.63	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.034206	-5.58

Prix observé : $0.201540. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
4h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
12h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1d	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T03:46:01+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 839,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T04:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T03:55:03+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 297,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T03:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}