Observation #16183

← Research Observations / #16183

🪙 ARB page 📊 Market Context

🪙 ARB

Market snapshot at

2026-10-04 09:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

08:00–09:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

09:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

10:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$0.199940

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $6,582,174

Synced: 10-04 10:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-04 08:00) Next (10-04 10:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · ARB — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_expansion

Environmenttrend_expansion

Participationbtc_led_risk_on

Leadershipbtc

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.3778

evaluated_at: 2026-10-04 08:45:58 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate-0.000965%

Annualized-8.46%

Premium-0.00057723

Settled at: 2026-10-04 09:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)118,989,985.40

OI (USD)$23,795,617

Mark price$0.199980

Funding next-0.000844%

Day vol (USD)$7,406,224

Snapshot at: 2026-10-04 08:55:05

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h -0.375%

Change 4h +0.125%

Change 24h -3.325%

Z-score 7d -0.12

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.001250%

Avg 24h 0.001198%

Percentile 7d 100.0% top

Percentile 30d 90.6%

Δ 4h 0.000000%

🔀 Price × OI

↓↑ Price ↓ · OI ↑

Price Δ 4h -0.195%

Divergence -0.25

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

3.108

OI / Vol z-7d

2.58 extrême

OI momentum 4h

-0.553%

Funding +ratio 24h

100.0%

Sign streak

+36 crowded

Time: 2026-10-04 08:00:00 OI observed: 07:55:04 (5min ago) Funding at: 08:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (4) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #217291	fresh	13h	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.620	expansion	bull_high	70%	noisy_chop 39%	early 10b 0.3ATR	—	—	0.32	82%	↓ -0.61	above_value	+0.03	—	#114241	0.58	bull_high	+13.15%	+1.00	02/10 20:00 upd 03/10 20:17	↗
4h #221383	fresh	1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.508	compression	range_high	37%	noisy_chop 35%	early 10b -0.4ATR	—	—	0.46	7%	↓ -0.40	value	-1.19	—	#116039	0.34	bull_high	+2.53%	-0.42	04/10 04:00 upd 04/10 08:11	↗
1h anchor #221780	fresh	0s	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	0.490	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 36%	mid 12b -0.4ATR	near -1.5ATR	near 0.1ATR	1.18	31%	↓ -0.24	above_value	-0.92	—	#116242	0.54	range_low	+0.52%	-0.07	04/10 08:00 upd 04/10 09:08	↗
15m #221720	fresh	0s	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.380	normal	range_medium	42%	noisy_chop 44%	mid 5b -0.6ATR	—	—	2.10	77%	↑ +0.62	value	-1.19	—	#116039	0.54	range_low	+0.17%	-0.12	04/10 08:45 upd 04/10 09:00	↗
5m	—	—	Pas de snapshot

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #176808	fresh	2026-10-04 08:00	0s	0.508	0.478	40/67	2026-10-04 09:00	2026-10-04 09:35
4h #176737	fresh	2026-10-04 04:00	1h	0.399	0.400	65/68	2026-10-04 08:00	2026-10-04 08:37
1d #175736	fresh	2026-10-02 20:00	13h	0.483	0.651	49/66	2026-10-03 20:00	2026-10-03 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #116174	fresh	2026-10-04 08:45	0s	$0.201410	$0.203471	$0.200237	between	-1.82	4.01
7d #116242	fresh	2026-10-04 08:00	0s	$0.201767	$0.210852	$0.196935	hvn	-0.92	6.97
30d #116106	fresh	2026-10-04 04:00	1h	$0.221355	$0.231482	$0.161126	value	-3.66	12.63

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.197510 → $0.198588	0.54%	1.34	0.84	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.001352	+1.68
below	$0.204296 → $0.205120	0.40%	1.02	0.86	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.004356	-5.41

Prix observé : $0.199940. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.188430 → $0.191523	1.63%	1.55	0.85	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.008417	+4.21
below	$0.216264 → $0.218970	1.24%	1.35	0.80	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.016324	-8.17
below	$0.229021 → $0.234820	2.50%	2.90	0.88	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.029081	-14.56

Prix observé : $0.199940. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.128080 → $0.132344	3.27%	0.77	0.66	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.067596	+12.13
above	$0.184578 → $0.188842	2.28%	0.77	0.37	reversion	—	↑ $0.011098	+1.99
below	$0.235746 → $0.256000	8.24%	3.63	0.63	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.035806	-6.43

Prix observé : $0.199940. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
4h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
12h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1d	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T12:45:58+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 842,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T13:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T12:55:05+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 295,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}