Observation #31024

← Research Observations / #31024

🪙 BTC page 📊 Market Context

🪙 BTC

Market snapshot at

2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

15:00–16:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

16:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

17:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$82,833.00

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $2,103,286,569

Synced: 10-12 17:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-12 15:00) Next (10-12 17:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · BTC — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_consolidation

Environmenttrend_consolidation

Participationbtc_led_risk_on

Leadershipbtc

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.1667

evaluated_at: 2026-10-12 15:46:10 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate0.001250%

Annualized10.95%

Premium-0.00037399

Settled at: 2026-10-12 16:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)38,324.55

OI (USD)$3,171,432,902

Mark price$82,752.00

Funding next0.001250%

Day vol (USD)$1,949,754,573

Snapshot at: 2026-10-12 15:55:03

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h +0.213%

Change 4h -0.221%

Change 24h +1.034%

Z-score 7d 0.31

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.000504%

Avg 24h 0.000915%

Percentile 7d 29.8%

Percentile 30d 14.9%

Δ 4h -0.000723%

🔀 Price × OI

↑↓ Price ↑ · OI ↓

Price Δ 4h +0.178%

Divergence 0.61

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

1.635

OI / Vol z-7d

-0.33

OI momentum 4h

+1.121%

Funding +ratio 24h

100.0%

Sign streak

+28 crowded

Time: 2026-10-12 15:00:00 OI observed: 14:55:05 (5min ago) Funding at: 15:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (5) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #290123	fresh	20h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	grind	0.639	compression	bull_high	61%	noisy_chop 36%	early 20b 0.3ATR	—	—	0.54	19%	↓ -0.33	value	+3.23	—	#145984	—	—	—	—	10/10 20:00 upd 11/10 20:15	↗
4h #298033	fresh	0s	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.397	compression	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 39%	mid 3b -1.3ATR	—	—	0.87	29%	↑ +0.39	above_value	-1.58	inside	#149395	—	—	—	—	12/10 12:00 upd 12/10 16:05	↗
1h anchor #298032	fresh	0s	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.615	volatile_reversal	range_medium	29%	noisy_chop 35%	late 12b -0.8ATR	—	—	0.51	35%	↔ -0.03	above_value	-1.58	—	#149395	—	—	—	—	12/10 15:00 upd 12/10 16:05	↗
15m #297967	fresh	0s	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.383	compression	range_low	38%	noisy_chop 40%	mid 4b 1.1ATR	—	near -1.0ATR	1.34	77%	↔ +0.05	above_value	-1.58	—	#149395	—	—	—	—	12/10 15:45 upd 12/10 16:00	↗
5m #297966	fresh	0s	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.505	expansion	range_low	39%	noisy_chop 46%	late 8b 2.5ATR	—	near 0.1ATR	2.96	87%	↑ +0.58	above_value	-1.58	—	#149395	—	—	—	—	12/10 15:55 upd 12/10 16:00	↗

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #195776	fresh	2026-10-12 15:00	0s	0.548	0.503	30/80	2026-10-12 16:00	2026-10-12 16:35
4h #195856	fresh	2026-10-12 12:00	0s	0.523	0.489	34/80	2026-10-12 16:00	2026-10-12 16:37
1d #193882	fresh	2026-10-10 20:00	20h	0.531	0.595	40/73	2026-10-11 20:00	2026-10-11 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #149477	fresh	2026-10-12 15:45	0s	$83,605.00	$84,297.89	$82,809.47	value	-4.23	8.15
7d #149558	fresh	2026-10-12 15:00	0s	$83,010.25	$84,300.38	$81,878.09	hvn	-0.46	6.28
30d #149639	fresh	2026-10-12 12:00	0s	$84,067.17	$87,052.07	$81,291.73	value	-2.52	8.93

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$82,262.00 → $82,398.87	0.17%	0.75	0.74	continuation_down	✓	↑ $434.13	+2.38
below	$83,014.77 → $83,254.28	0.29%	1.31	0.65	reversion	✓	↓ $181.77	-0.99
below	$84,178.13 → $84,315.00	0.16%	0.75	0.61	continuation_up	✓	↓ $1,345.13	-7.36

Prix observé : $82,833.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$80,351.00 → $80,719.61	0.46%	0.96	0.74	continuation_down	✓	↑ $2,113.39	+5.48
below	$84,405.69 → $85,353.54	1.12%	2.46	0.86	continuation_up	✓	↓ $1,572.69	-4.07
below	$86,406.71 → $86,670.00	0.30%	0.68	0.79	continuation_up	✓	↓ $3,573.71	-9.26

Prix observé : $82,833.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$74,903.00 → $75,321.93	0.56%	0.65	0.63	continuation_down	✓	↑ $7,511.07	+11.64
above	$78,359.20 → $80,453.87	2.64%	3.25	0.76	continuation_down	✓	↑ $2,379.13	+3.69
below	$86,947.33 → $87,471.00	0.60%	0.81	0.76	continuation_up	✓	↓ $4,114.33	-6.38

Prix observé : $82,833.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	computed	16:05	16:20	+0.15%	+0.33×	+0.44×	0.00×	15m	5m	High first	0.66	0.00%	+0.15%	52.18%	0.20%	$35.18M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
1h	computed	16:05	17:05	+0.05%	+0.11×	+0.55×	0.00×	50m	5m	High first	0.09	0.00%	+0.05%	23.50%	0.25%	$125.99M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
4h	computed	16:05	20:05	-1.42%	-3.12×	+0.55×	-3.14×	50m	4h	High first	0.39	0.00%	-1.42%	33.36%	1.68%	$643.89M	— / —	17:45 / 18:55	—	100%
12h	computed	16:05	04:05	+1.21%	+2.65×	+2.97×	-5.04×	11h35m	4h50m	Low first	0.10	0.00%	+1.21%	38.57%	3.66%	$1.99B	23:30 / 01:10	17:45 / 18:55	—	100%
1d	computed	16:05	16:05	+0.42%	+0.92×	+3.24×	-5.04×	12h10m	4h50m	Low first	0.02	0.00%	+0.42%	38.66%	3.78%	$3.21B	23:30 / 01:10	17:45 / 18:55	—	100%

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-12T19:46:10+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 830,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-12T20:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-12T19:55:03+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 297,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-12T19:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}