Short Trade on KAITO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 338.24 KAITO at 0.435$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3759 (13.59 %) & Stop Loss: 0.4586 (5.43 %)
13 Aug 2026 at 17:22:26
hyperliquid
KAITO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
13 Aug 2026 17:22
→ 05:20
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.435$
Qty 338.2436 KAITO
Size 147.1292$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3759 (+13.59%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.4586 (-5.43%)
SL $ 7.98$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+5.77%
/ +8.49$
MAE -1.15%
MFE +8.75%
1.6R
expires
14 Aug 05:22
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 68481)
#49 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 13/08/2026 17:00
score du 13/08/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1119
Quality Score
0.384
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
7.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
13/08 17:16
13/08 17:16
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#49 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#49 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.43 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | 0.00×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 13/08 17:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high_confirmed (+3) 12/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 13/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 13/08 16:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.80
Transition risk :
0.20
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.63
Snapshot évalué : 13/08 17:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.3843
Score SMA
0.3699
Rank
#49
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1119
Rank Norm SMA
0.0427
Calculé le
13/08/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1908 | r1h: 0.822% · r4h: -6.449% · r1d: -5.48% · r3d: -35.37% · ema21_slope: -0.3433% · dist_ema21: -5.037% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2183 | rs_1h: 0.800% · rs_4h: -6.888% · rs_1d: -5.20% · rs_3d: -34.22% · beta_24h: 0.249 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3079 | rvol_20: 1.24× · zscore_50: -0.485 · trend: -33.19% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7768 | ADX: 39.2 (trend) · Chop: 44.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9440 | ATR%: 3.168% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -5.425%
(0.0236)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.186% | 0.0R | -1.140% | 0.2R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.761% | 0.1R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +3.299% | 0.6R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 2.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +5.979% | 1.1R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 5.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +8.754% | 1.6R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 7.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +10.345% | 1.9R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 9.0× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 3.17
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
52%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.36 | bear_high | -5.12% | -1.00 | 12/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
choppy 50% | late | — | — | -0.02 | bear_medium | -1.03% | -1.00 | 13/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | bear_trend | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | -0.06 | bear_medium | -0.79% | -0.21 | 13/08 16:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 54% | mid | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.05 | range_low | -0.18% | -0.45 | 13/08 16:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 15b | — | 7.786×ATR | p83 | -3.051×ATR | p100 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 73b | — | 25.849×ATR | p100 | -3.368×ATR | p95 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 3.529×ATR | p80 | -1.723×ATR | p70 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 1b | — | 1.644×ATR | p3 | -1.291×ATR | p60 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7347
- reason: down_bo width=2.39×ATR dur=31b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.45863159
- tp_price: 0.37585101
- atr:
- score: 0.73474757272127
- expires_at: 2026-08-14T09:22:18.624560
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.73474757272127
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0882
- obi_top10 : -0.0361
- micro_price : 0.43669299
- spread_pct : 0.068713
- mid_price : 0.43675
- bid_wall_price : 0.434
- bid_wall_size : 155157.96
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.44
- ask_wall_size : 162004.08
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0924
- obi_top5_std : 0.0113
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7084
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.47311
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.44151
- balance_zone_mid:
0.45731
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786546800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786654800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3911
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
31
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7347
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786644000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.44151
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8387
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
3
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.4941
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.01321595 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
31
inside_close_ratio
0.8387
bars_since_breakout
3
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4941
Signaux confirmants (28)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:22 | 0.43498000 | -0.005% |
| 2 | 17:28 | 0.43498000 | -0.005% |
| 3 | 17:34 | 0.43498000 | -0.005% |
| 4 | 17:40 | 0.43781000 | +0.646% |
| 5 | 17:46 | 0.43781000 | +0.646% |
| 6 | 17:52 | 0.43931000 | +0.991% |
| 7 | 17:58 | 0.43931000 | +0.991% |
| 8 | 18:05 | 0.43931000 | +0.991% |
| 9 | 18:10 | 0.43798000 | +0.685% |
| 10 | 18:16 | 0.43798000 | +0.685% |
| 11 | 18:22 | 0.43864000 | +0.837% |
| 12 | 18:28 | 0.43864000 | +0.837% |
| 13 | 18:34 | 0.43864000 | +0.837% |
| 14 | 18:39 | 0.43658000 | +0.363% |
| 15 | 18:46 | 0.43658000 | +0.363% |
| 16 | 18:52 | 0.43779000 | +0.641% |
| 17 | 18:58 | 0.43779000 | +0.641% |
| 18 | 19:05 | 0.43779000 | +0.641% |
| 19 | 19:10 | 0.43492000 | -0.018% |
| 20 | 19:16 | 0.43492000 | -0.018% |
| 21 | 19:22 | 0.43355000 | -0.333% |
| 22 | 19:28 | 0.43355000 | -0.333% |
| 23 | 19:34 | 0.43355000 | -0.333% |
| 24 | 19:40 | 0.43195000 | -0.701% |
| 25 | 19:46 | 0.43195000 | -0.701% |
| 26 | 19:52 | 0.43076000 | -0.975% |
| 27 | 19:58 | 0.43076000 | -0.975% |
| 28 | 20:05 | 0.43076000 | -0.975% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7084ms
Confidence avant OB :
73%
→
73%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.088
avg -0.092
± 0.011
OBI Top 10
-0.036
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.4368
Micro Price
0.4367
Spread
0.0687%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.4340
Size
155,157.96
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.4400
Size
162,004.08
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.435 | 0.4586 | 0.3759 | 2.5 | 0.3045 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.435
- Stop Loss: 0.4586
- Take Profit: 0.3759
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4586 - 0.435 = 0.0236
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.435 - 0.3759 = 0.0591
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0591 / 0.0236 = 2.5042
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147.1292 | 100 | 338.2436 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0236
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0236 = 338.98
Taille de position USD = 338.98 x 0.435 = 147.46
Donc, tu peux acheter 338.98 avec un stoploss a 0.4586
Avec un position size USD de 147.46$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 338.98 x 0.0236 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 338.98 x 0.0591 = 20.03
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.03$
Résumé
- Taille de position 338.98
- Taille de position USD 147.46
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.03
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5042
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 13.59 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.43 % | 7.98 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 8.49 $ | 5.77 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1471 % | 21.14 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.435 | 0.4586 | 0.3759 | 2.5 | 0.3045 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.435
- Stop Loss: 0.4586
- Take Profit: 0.3759
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4586 - 0.435 = 0.0236
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.435 - 0.3759 = 0.0591
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0591 / 0.0236 = 2.5042
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -5.425%
(0.0236)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.186% | 0.0R | -1.140% | 0.2R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.761% | 0.1R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +3.299% | 0.6R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 2.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +5.979% | 1.1R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 5.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +8.754% | 1.6R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 7.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +10.345% | 1.9R | -1.147% | 0.2R | 9.0× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
Commentaires
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