Short Trade on JUP (BosPullback)
With 4096.51 JUP at 0.169$ per unit. Take profit: 0.164 (2.9 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1708 (1.12 %)
Short Trade on JUP (BosPullback)
With 4096.51 JUP at 0.169$ per unit. Take profit: 0.164 (2.9 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1708 (1.12 %)
Position
Entry 0.1689$
Qty 4096.5139 JUP
Size 691.8193$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 0.164 (+2.9%)
TP $ 20.07$
SL 0.1708 (-1.12%)
SL $ 7.78$
RR 2.58
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4169
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.60×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 0.60×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 13/08 23:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
1H_regime : bear_medium 15m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 13/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 13/08 22:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4322 | r1h: 0.082% · r4h: -0.129% · r1d: -0.44% · r3d: -6.74% · ema21_slope: -0.0461% · dist_ema21: -0.095% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4513 | rs_1h: 0.188% · rs_4h: -0.098% · rs_1d: -0.41% · rs_3d: -5.93% · beta_24h: 1.098 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1788 | rvol_20: 0.52× · zscore_50: -0.773 · trend: -29.24% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5937 | ADX: 29.2 (trend) · Chop: 56.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.672% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.497% | 0.4R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 3.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.515% | 0.5R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 3.8× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +2.078% | 1.9R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 15.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.262% | 2.0R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 16.6× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.463% | 2.2R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 18.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.463% | 2.2R | -0.853% | 0.8R | 2.9× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | — | — | 0.65 | bear_high | -4.59% | -0.67 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.53 | bear_medium | -0.78% | -0.55 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | — | — | 0.49 | range_low | -0.56% | -0.03 | 13/08 22:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | near -0.1ATR | — | range_low | -0.03% | -0.04 | 13/08 22:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 43b | — | 9.874×ATR | p94 | -2.086×ATR | p92 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 27b | — | 6.661×ATR | p96 | -1.451×ATR | p79 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 10b | — | 2.611×ATR | p53 | -0.143×ATR | p7 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 16b | — | 1.723×ATR | p7 | +0.069×ATR | p5 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
0.17073
144
0.2891
0.5695
0.368
0.2515
0.4633
0.589
0.5025
0.5649
0.3322
0.0246
0.5436
0.0962
-0.0424
-0.0941
0
-0.9792
-2.8104
0.45
0.55
-1
11
1
0.4969
0.4329
4.5538
0.55
0.589
2.6822
-2.8104
0.4973
0.2306
0
-0.2631
0.4626
0.4491
0.5804
0.0962
-20.3549
2.1677
1
1
1
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0.16699
0.17073
0.17073
0.16699
0.16815
0.16699
0.16757
0.4913
0.17334
0.17046
0.1719
0.6782
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:08 | 0.16888000 | -0.012% |
| 2 | 23:14 | 0.16886000 | -0.024% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1689 | 0.1708 | 0.164 | 2.58 | 0.2376 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1708 - 0.1689 = 0.0019
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1689 - 0.164 = 0.0049
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0049 / 0.0019 = 2.5789
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 691.8193 | 100 | 4096.5139 | 7.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0019 = 4210.53
Taille de position USD = 4210.53 x 0.1689 = 711.16
Donc, tu peux acheter 4210.53 avec un stoploss a 0.1708
Avec un position size USD de 711.16$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 4210.53 x 0.0019 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 4210.53 x 0.0049 = 20.63
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.63$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.9 % | 20.07 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.12 % | 7.78 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.78 $ | -1.12 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1368 % | 101.06 % | 19 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1689 | 0.1708 | 0.164 | 2.58 | 0.2376 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1708 - 0.1689 = 0.0019
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1689 - 0.164 = 0.0049
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0049 / 0.0019 = 2.5789
Array
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)
Array
(
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.497% | 0.4R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 3.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.515% | 0.5R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 3.8× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +2.078% | 1.9R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 15.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.262% | 2.0R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 16.6× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.463% | 2.2R | -0.136% | 0.1R | 18.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.463% | 2.2R | -0.853% | 0.8R | 2.9× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
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