Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 9017.84 XPL at 0.0736$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07141 (3 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07451 (1.21 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 04:22:06
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 04:22
→ 05:05
· 42 minutes
Position
Entry 0.07362$
Qty 9017.8441 XPL
Size 663.9207$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07141 (+3%)
TP $ 19.93$
SL 0.07451 (-1.21%)
SL $ 8.03$
RR 2.48
Status
loss
PnL
-1.21%
/ -8.03$
MAE -5.17%
MFE +0.01%
0.0R
expires
14 Aug 16:21
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 68976)
#41 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 04:00
score du 14/08/2026 04:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1489
Quality Score
0.437
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 04:17
14/08 04:17
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#41 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.21 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#41 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.21 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.48×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.87×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.11×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 3 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 14/08 04:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 14/08 03:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.80
Transition risk :
0.20
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.63
Snapshot évalué : 14/08 04:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4366
Score SMA
0.4755
Rank
#41
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1489
Rank Norm SMA
0.2695
Calculé le
14/08/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4134 | r1h: -0.131% · r4h: -0.836% · r1d: -1.98% · r3d: -7.09% · ema21_slope: -0.0221% · dist_ema21: -1.122% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4293 | rs_1h: -0.208% · rs_4h: -0.360% · rs_1d: -0.71% · rs_3d: -5.48% · beta_24h: 0.881 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1573 | rvol_20: 0.10× · zscore_50: -0.641 · trend: -53.34% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4919 | ADX: 21.9 (weak) · Chop: 61.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.837% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.209%
(0.0009)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -1.218% | 1.0R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -1.218% | 1.0R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -2.755% | 2.3R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -5.168% | 4.3R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.008% | 0.0R | -5.168% | 4.3R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -5.848% | 4.8R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.01
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.50 | bear_high | -4.90% | -0.77 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | near -1.9ATR | — | 0.41 | bear_medium | -1.59% | -0.47 | 14/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.40 | bear_low | -1.23% | -0.05 | 14/08 03:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | normal | bear_low |
49%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | near -2.3ATR | — | 0.42 | range_low | -0.71% | -0.04 | 14/08 03:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 41b | — | 8.534×ATR | p91 | -1.022×ATR | p50 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 14b | — | 3.44×ATR | p65 | -1.261×ATR | p77 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 9b | — | 2.873×ATR | p65 | -1.539×ATR | p80 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 8b | — | 2.677×ATR | p35 | -1.698×ATR | p83 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8487
- reason: down_bo width=2.59×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.07451013
- tp_price: 0.07140517
- atr:
- score: 0.84869438424616
- expires_at: 2026-08-14T20:21:58.769974
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84869438424616
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0355
- obi_top10 : 0.1988
- micro_price : 0.07369348
- spread_pct : 0.01357
- mid_price : 0.073695
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0749
- ask_wall_size : 1231712
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0392
- obi_top5_std : 0.057
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7081
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.075218
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.073684
- balance_zone_mid:
0.074451
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786579200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786694400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.5942
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
33
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8487
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786690800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.073684
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7879
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1032
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00059133 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
33
inside_close_ratio
0.7879
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1032
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:22 | 0.07362300 | +0.004% |
| 2 | 04:28 | 0.07362300 | +0.004% |
| 3 | 04:34 | 0.07362300 | +0.004% |
| 4 | 04:51 | 0.07361600 | -0.005% |
| 5 | 04:57 | 0.07361600 | -0.005% |
| 6 | 05:05 | 0.07361600 | -0.005% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7081ms
Confidence avant OB :
85%
→
85%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.036
avg -0.039
± 0.057
OBI Top 10
0.199
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0737
Micro Price
0.0737
Spread
0.0136%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0749
Size
1,231,712.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07362 | 0.07451 | 0.07141 | 2.48 | 0.08237 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07362
- Stop Loss: 0.07451
- Take Profit: 0.07141
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07451 - 0.07362 = 0.00089
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07362 - 0.07141 = 0.00221
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00221 / 0.00089 = 2.4831
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 663.9207 | 100 | 9017.8441 | 7.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00089
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00089 = 8988.76
Taille de position USD = 8988.76 x 0.07362 = 661.75
Donc, tu peux acheter 8988.76 avec un stoploss a 0.07451
Avec un position size USD de 661.75$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 8988.76 x 0.00089 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 8988.76 x 0.00221 = 19.87
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.87$
Résumé
- Taille de position 8988.76
- Taille de position USD 661.75
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.87
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4831
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3 % | 19.93 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.21 % | 8.03 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.03 $ | -1.21 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2184 % | 100.79 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07362 | 0.07451 | 0.07141 | 2.48 | 0.08237 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07362
- Stop Loss: 0.07451
- Take Profit: 0.07141
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07451 - 0.07362 = 0.00089
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07362 - 0.07141 = 0.00221
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00221 / 0.00089 = 2.4831
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.07141
[entry_price] => 0.07362
[stop_loss] => 0.074599
[rr_ratio] => 2.26
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-14 10:35:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.07141
[entry_price] => 0.07362
[stop_loss] => 0.074688
[rr_ratio] => 2.07
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-14 11:05:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.07141
[entry_price] => 0.07362
[stop_loss] => 0.074777
[rr_ratio] => 1.91
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-14 11:05:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.07141
[entry_price] => 0.07362
[stop_loss] => 0.074955
[rr_ratio] => 1.66
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-14 11:10:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.209%
(0.0009)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -1.218% | 1.0R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -1.218% | 1.0R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -2.755% | 2.3R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -5.168% | 4.3R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.008% | 0.0R | -5.168% | 4.3R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.008% | 0.0R | -5.848% | 4.8R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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