Short Trade on AAVE (CatchTheWave)
With 45 AAVE at 86.755$ per unit. Take profit: 86.3994 (0.41 %) & Stop Loss: 86.9328 (0.2 %)
Short Trade on AAVE (CatchTheWave)
With 45 AAVE at 86.755$ per unit. Take profit: 86.3994 (0.41 %) & Stop Loss: 86.9328 (0.2 %)
Position
Entry 86.755$
Qty 44.9973 AAVE
Size 3903.7385$ (margin 100$) (leverage 39)
Risk Setup
TP 86.3994 (+0.41%)
TP $ 16$
SL 86.9328 (-0.2%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3719
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.38×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.17×ATR |
| 1d | near | -2.54×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 11:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.313594 15m : 0.406706 |
1H_regime : range_medium 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 15/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 16/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 16/08 11:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5094 | r1h: 0.595% · r4h: 0.957% · r1d: 0.04% · r3d: -2.35% · ema21_slope: -0.0262% · dist_ema21: 0.456% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5296 | rs_1h: 0.547% · rs_4h: 0.814% · rs_1d: -0.04% · rs_3d: -1.15% · beta_24h: 2.484 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7076 | rvol_20: 3.19× · zscore_50: 0.424 · trend: 9.53% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5439 | ADX: 25.1 (trend) · Chop: 58.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.449% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.163% | 0.8R | -0.400% | 2.0R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.163% | 0.8R | -0.598% | 2.9R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.355% | 1.7R | -0.598% | 2.9R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.707% | 8.3R | -0.598% | 2.9R | 2.9× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.707% | 8.3R | -0.598% | 2.9R | 2.9× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | near -2.5ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -5.14% | -0.82 | 15/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.49 | bear_medium | -1.15% | -0.16 | 16/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | range_medium |
38%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | near -0.8ATR | 0.60 | range_low | -0.30% | +0.01 | 16/08 11:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | range_low |
35%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | — | — | — | range_low | +0.09% | +0.09 | 16/08 11:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 20b | — | 4.558×ATR | p65 | -1.344×ATR | p72 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 26b | — | 3.558×ATR | p46 | -0.308×ATR | p19 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 2b | — | 2.837×ATR | p59 | +1.116×ATR | p67 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 10b | — | 5.452×ATR | p88 | +2.148×ATR | p91 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63027.2
0.000915966
63085
0.313594
63038.5
0.00073666
63085
0.406706
63251.2
-0.00262843
63085
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85.599
197
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0.4359
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0.4702
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0.3123
0.0298
-0.023
0.6667
1.0345
0.3315
0.35
0.65
-1
5
1
0.5743
0.5292
4.9136
0.55
1.0532
2.1475
0.3315
0.7574
0.2991
0.38
0.0633
0.4456
0.4802
0.6843
0.3123
-9.1414
4.1506
1
0
1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (4)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:19 | 86.75500000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:25 | 86.72000000 | -0.04% |
| 3 | 11:31 | 86.89500000 | +0.161% |
| 4 | 11:49 | 86.85000000 | +0.11% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 07:00:00 | 85.784 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 07:30:00 | 86.083 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 08:10:00 | 85.94 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 09:45:00 | 85.711 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 10:35:00 | 85.637 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 12:20:00 | 86.351 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 12:30:00 | 85.629 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 13:10:00 | 86.298 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 13:15:00 | 85.599 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 15:10:00 | 86.783 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 01:00:00 | 86.318 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 02:15:00 | 85.925 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 03:00:00 | 86.45 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 03:30:00 | 86.45 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 06:15:00 | 85.711 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 07:30:00 | 86.083 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 10:30:00 | 85.637 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 12:15:00 | 86.351 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 13:15:00 | 85.599 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 15:00:00 | 86.783 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 16:00:00 | 86.868 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-13 22:00:00 | 88.669 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 14:00:00 | 85.033 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 16:00:00 | 86.883 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 22:00:00 | 85.257 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 09:00:00 | 87.231 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 12:00:00 | 86.062 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 16:00:00 | 87.187 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 13:00:00 | 85.599 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 15:00:00 | 86.783 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86.755 | 86.9328 | 86.3994 | 2 | 182.37 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 86.9328 - 86.755 = 0.1778
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 86.755 - 86.3994 = 0.3556
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.3556 / 0.1778 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3903.7385 | 100 | 44.9973 | 39.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.1778 = 44.99
Taille de position USD = 44.99 x 86.755 = 3903.11
Donc, tu peux acheter 44.99 avec un stoploss a 86.9328
Avec un position size USD de 3903.11$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 44.99 x 0.1778 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 44.99 x 0.3556 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.41 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.2 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.20 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3066 % | 149.63 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86.755 | 86.9328 | 86.3994 | 2 | 182.37 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 86.9328 - 86.755 = 0.1778
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 86.755 - 86.3994 = 0.3556
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.3556 / 0.1778 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.163% | 0.8R | -0.400% | 2.0R | 0.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.163% | 0.8R | -0.598% | 2.9R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.355% | 1.7R | -0.598% | 2.9R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.707% | 8.3R | -0.598% | 2.9R | 2.9× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.707% | 8.3R | -0.598% | 2.9R | 2.9× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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