Short Trade on ETH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.99 ETH at 1873.1$ per unit. Take profit: 1852.9575 (1.08 %) & Stop Loss: 1881.157 (0.43 %)
16 Aug 2026 at 18:12:30
hyperliquid
ETH
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
16 Aug 2026 18:12
→ 21:00
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 1873.1$
Qty 0.9929 ETH
Size 1859.8478$ (margin 100$) (leverage 19)
Risk Setup
TP 1852.9575 (+1.08%)
TP $ 20$
SL 1881.157 (-0.43%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.43%
/ -8$
MAE -2.02%
MFE +0.23%
0.6R
expires
17 Aug 06:12
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 71612)
#26 / 36
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 16/08/2026 18:00
score du 16/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5508
Quality Score
0.531
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
264.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
16/08 18:00
16/08 18:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#26 / 36
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.43 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#26 / 36
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.43 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.14×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.76×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 6.89×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | late | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low_confirmed rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 18:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 15/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) 16/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 17:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1577
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué :
16/08 18:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
16/08/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.5310
Score SMA
0.4721
Rank
#26
/ 36
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5508
Rank Norm SMA
0.2837
Calculé le
16/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4698 | r1h: -0.399% · r4h: -0.573% · r1d: -0.58% · r3d: -0.74% · ema21_slope: 0.0020% · dist_ema21: -0.429% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4853 | rs_1h: -0.205% · rs_4h: -0.220% · rs_1d: -0.23% · rs_3d: 0.15% · beta_24h: 1.411 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4358 | rvol_20: 1.18× · zscore_50: 0.491 · trend: 20.53% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7007 | ADX: 24.1 (weak) · Chop: 25.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7647 | ATR%: 0.229% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.430%
(8.0570)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -0.219% | 0.5R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -0.219% | 0.5R | 1.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -1.255% | 2.9R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -1.805% | 4.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.235% | 0.6R | -2.023% | 4.7R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -2.221% | 5.2R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.13
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 28% | late | — | — | 0.91 | bear_high | -4.94% | +0.06 | 15/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | range_medium |
38%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | near 0.2ATR | 0.86 | bear_medium | -1.18% | +0.07 | 16/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | range_low |
32%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.82 | range_low | -0.54% | -0.01 | 16/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | range_low |
35%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.76 | range_low | -0.25% | -0.02 | 16/08 18:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | late | 51b | — | 8.087×ATR | p92 | +0.055×ATR | p4 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 19b | — | 1.861×ATR | p0 | -0.187×ATR | p13 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 3.397×ATR | p72 | -1.98×ATR | p94 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 2b | — | 2.053×ATR | p24 | -2.398×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8309
- reason: down_bo width=2.26×ATR dur=53b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1881.15700334
- tp_price: 1852.95749165
- atr:
- score: 0.83090278726699
- expires_at: 2026-08-17T10:12:23.226562
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83090278726699
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.1319
- obi_top10 : -0.1319
- micro_price : 1876.49211657
- spread_pct : 0.000533
- mid_price : 1876.495
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0496
- obi_top5_std : 0.0535
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7011
- aggregation_tick : 10
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1885.6
- balance_zone_bottom:
1875.85
- balance_zone_mid:
1880.725
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786730400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786917600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2569
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
53
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8309
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786914000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1875.85
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9245
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.6366
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_medium
- atr_entry : 4.32003341 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
53
inside_close_ratio
0.9245
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.6366
Signaux confirmants (7)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:12 | 1873.10000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:36 | 1872.80000000 | -0.016% |
| 3 | 18:42 | 1872.80000000 | -0.016% |
| 4 | 18:48 | 1872.60000000 | -0.027% |
| 5 | 18:54 | 1872.60000000 | -0.027% |
| 6 | 19:00 | 1872.60000000 | -0.027% |
| 7 | 19:06 | 1875.10000000 | +0.107% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7011ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
83%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.132
avg -0.050
± 0.054
OBI Top 10
-0.132
Microstructure
Mid Price
1,876.4950
Micro Price
1,876.4921
Spread
0.0005%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1873.1 | 1881.157 | 1852.9575 | 2.5 | 2697.7 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1873.1
- Stop Loss: 1881.157
- Take Profit: 1852.9575
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1881.157 - 1873.1 = 8.057
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1873.1 - 1852.9575 = 20.1425
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 20.1425 / 8.057 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1859.8478 | 100 | 0.9929 | 19.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 8.057
Taille de position = 8 / 8.057 = 0.99
Taille de position USD = 0.99 x 1873.1 = 1854.37
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.99 avec un stoploss a 1881.157
Avec un position size USD de 1854.37$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.99 x 8.057 = 7.98
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.98$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.99 x 20.1425 = 19.94
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.94$
Résumé
- Taille de position 0.99
- Taille de position USD 1854.37
- Perte potentielle 7.98
- Gain potentiel 19.94
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.08 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.43 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.43 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9289 % | 215.97 % | 10 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1873.1 | 1881.157 | 1852.9575 | 2.5 | 2697.7 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1873.1
- Stop Loss: 1881.157
- Take Profit: 1852.9575
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1881.157 - 1873.1 = 8.057
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1873.1 - 1852.9575 = 20.1425
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 20.1425 / 8.057 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 1852.9575
[entry_price] => 1873.1
[stop_loss] => 1881.9627
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 1852.9575
[entry_price] => 1873.1
[stop_loss] => 1882.7684
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 1852.9575
[entry_price] => 1873.1
[stop_loss] => 1883.5741
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 1852.9575
[entry_price] => 1873.1
[stop_loss] => 1885.1855
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 01:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.430%
(8.0570)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -0.219% | 0.5R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -0.219% | 0.5R | 1.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -1.255% | 2.9R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -1.805% | 4.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.235% | 0.6R | -2.023% | 4.7R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.235% | 0.6R | -2.221% | 5.2R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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