Short Trade on BTC (CatchTheWave)
With 0.065 BTC at 63210$ per unit. Take profit: 62964.3668 (0.39 %) & Stop Loss: 63332.8166 (0.19 %)
Short Trade on BTC (CatchTheWave)
With 0.065 BTC at 63210$ per unit. Take profit: 62964.3668 (0.39 %) & Stop Loss: 63332.8166 (0.19 %)
Position
Entry 63210$
Qty 0.06514 BTC
Size 4117.3582$ (margin 100$) (leverage 41)
Risk Setup
TP 62964.3668 (+0.39%)
TP $ 16$
SL 63332.8166 (-0.19%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6051
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.63×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.76×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.82×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 21:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
1H_regime : range_low 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+2) 16/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 21:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4893 | r1h: 0.040% · r4h: -0.216% · r1d: -0.26% · r3d: -1.02% · ema21_slope: -0.0026% · dist_ema21: -0.183% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5000 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9913 | rvol_20: 2.95× · zscore_50: 2.981 · trend: 151.77% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6670 | ADX: 20.0 (weak) · Chop: 21.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.6674 | ATR%: 0.200% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.188% | 1.0R | 1.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.365% | 1.9R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.552% | 2.8R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.752% | 3.9R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.854% | 4.4R | 0.4× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | near 0.0ATR | — | — | — | — | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_medium |
57%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late | near -0.8ATR | — | — | — | — | — | 16/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | range_low |
34%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16/08 21:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | range_low |
29%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | — | near 0.0ATR | — | — | — | — | 16/08 21:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 27b | — | 3.571×ATR | p29 | -0.915×ATR | p53 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 1.838×ATR | p0 | -1.592×ATR | p85 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 2b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | +0.057×ATR | p5 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 4b | — | 3.565×ATR | p64 | +1.193×ATR | p57 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
Array
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[right_window] => 5
[recent_pivots] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-14 22:00:00
[1] => 62778
[2] => L
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[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-15 03:00:00
[1] => 63176
[2] => H
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[2] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-15 09:00:00
[1] => 62890
[2] => L
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[3] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-15 15:00:00
[1] => 63112
[2] => H
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[4] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-15 21:00:00
[1] => 63144
[2] => H
)
[5] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 01:00:00
[1] => 62977
[2] => L
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[6] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 10:00:00
[1] => 62942
[2] => L
)
[7] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 16:00:00
[1] => 63368
[2] => H
)
[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 22:00:00
[1] => 62678
[2] => L
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-17 01:00:00
[1] => 63222
[2] => H
)
)
[detected_trend] => downtrend
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => -1
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.094903672772136
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 0.77220077220077
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 3
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 0.86792814065541
[ms_bos_up] => 0
[ms_bos_down] => 1
[ms_choch_up] => 0
[ms_choch_down] => 0
)
)
Array
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[left_window] => 5
[right_window] => 5
[recent_pivots] => Array
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[0] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 09:00:00
[1] => 63052
[2] => H
)
[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 10:00:00
[1] => 62942
[2] => L
)
[2] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 11:45:00
[1] => 62956
[2] => L
)
[3] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 16:30:00
[1] => 63368
[2] => H
)
[4] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 18:00:00
[1] => 63090
[2] => L
)
[5] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 19:30:00
[1] => 63207
[2] => H
)
[6] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 22:30:00
[1] => 62678
[2] => L
)
[7] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 23:00:00
[1] => 62982
[2] => H
)
[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-17 00:30:00
[1] => 62730
[2] => L
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-17 01:30:00
[1] => 63222
[2] => H
)
)
[detected_trend] => uptrend
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => 1
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.098067128531207
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 0.68547744300972
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 4
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 0.7843137254902
[ms_bos_up] => 1
[ms_bos_down] => 0
[ms_choch_up] => 1
[ms_choch_down] => 0
)
)
Array
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[left_window] => 5
[right_window] => 5
[recent_pivots] => Array
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[0] => Array
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[0] => 2026-08-16 19:40:00
[1] => 63207
[2] => H
)
[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 19:55:00
[1] => 63062
[2] => L
)
[2] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 21:15:00
[1] => 63059
[2] => H
)
[3] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 21:40:00
[1] => 62737
[2] => L
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[4] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 22:40:00
[1] => 62678
[2] => L
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[5] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 23:00:00
[1] => 62982
[2] => H
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[6] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-16 23:25:00
[1] => 62798
[2] => L
)
[7] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-17 00:00:00
[1] => 62910
[2] => H
)
[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-17 00:35:00
[1] => 62730
[2] => L
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-17 01:30:00
[1] => 63222
[2] => H
)
)
[detected_trend] => range
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => 0
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.018980734554427
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 0.76518412242946
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 1
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 12
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 0.7843137254902
[ms_bos_up] => 1
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[ms_choch_down] => 0
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62982
197
0.4581
0.6873
0.391
0.2253
0.5267
0.4406
0.3896
0.6664
0.328
0.988
0.6409
0.3254
-0.0504
-0.0286
0.6667
0.7549
0.5334
0.4
0.6
-1
3
1
0.5495
0.6941
6.035
0.5
0.4406
2.659
0.5334
0.6432
0.3425
0.98
1.7341
0.5797
0.6257
0
0.3254
-7.2997
3.5204
1
0
1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21:36 | 63210.00000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 21:42 | 63183.00000000 | -0.043% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 19:40:00 | 63207 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 19:55:00 | 63062 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 21:15:00 | 63059 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 21:40:00 | 62737 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 22:40:00 | 62678 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 23:00:00 | 62982 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 23:25:00 | 62798 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 00:00:00 | 62910 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 00:35:00 | 62730 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 01:30:00 | 63222 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 09:00:00 | 63052 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 10:00:00 | 62942 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 11:45:00 | 62956 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 16:30:00 | 63368 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 18:00:00 | 63090 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 19:30:00 | 63207 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 22:30:00 | 62678 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 23:00:00 | 62982 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 00:30:00 | 62730 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 01:30:00 | 63222 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 22:00:00 | 62778 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 03:00:00 | 63176 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 09:00:00 | 62890 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 15:00:00 | 63112 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 21:00:00 | 63144 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 01:00:00 | 62977 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 10:00:00 | 62942 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 16:00:00 | 63368 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 22:00:00 | 62678 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 01:00:00 | 63222 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63210 | 63332.8166 | 62964.3668 | 2 | 84268 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63332.8166 - 63210 = 122.8166
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 63210 - 62964.3668 = 245.6332
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 245.6332 / 122.8166 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4117.3582 | 100 | 0.06514 | 41.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 122.8166 = 0.07
Taille de position USD = 0.07 x 63210 = 4424.7
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.07 avec un stoploss a 63332.8166
Avec un position size USD de 4424.7$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.07 x 122.8166 = 8.6
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.6$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.07 x 245.6332 = 17.19
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 17.19$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.39 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.19 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.19 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3654 % | 188.06 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63210 | 63332.8166 | 62964.3668 | 2 | 84268 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63332.8166 - 63210 = 122.8166
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 63210 - 62964.3668 = 245.6332
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 245.6332 / 122.8166 = 2
Array
(
)
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 62964.3668
[entry_price] => 63210
[stop_loss] => 63345.09826
[rr_ratio] => 1.82
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 62964.3668
[entry_price] => 63210
[stop_loss] => 63357.37992
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
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[take_profit] => 62964.3668
[entry_price] => 63210
[stop_loss] => 63369.66158
[rr_ratio] => 1.54
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 62964.3668
[entry_price] => 63210
[stop_loss] => 63394.2249
[rr_ratio] => 1.33
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 02:50:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.188% | 1.0R | 1.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.365% | 1.9R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.552% | 2.8R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.752% | 3.9R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.339% | 1.7R | -0.854% | 4.4R | 0.4× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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