Short Trade on AAVE (CatchTheWave)
With 31.82 AAVE at 86.747$ per unit. Take profit: 86.2442 (0.58 %) & Stop Loss: 86.9984 (0.29 %)
Short Trade on AAVE (CatchTheWave)
With 31.82 AAVE at 86.747$ per unit. Take profit: 86.2442 (0.58 %) & Stop Loss: 86.9984 (0.29 %)
Position
Entry 86.747$
Qty 31.8203 AAVE
Size 2760.3186$ (margin 100$) (leverage 28)
Risk Setup
TP 86.2442 (+0.58%)
TP $ 16$
SL 86.9984 (-0.29%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4849
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.77×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.30×ATR |
| 1d | near | -2.75×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 21:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.64852 15m : 0.50596 |
1H_regime : range_medium 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 16/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 16/08 21:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4737 | r1h: -0.015% · r4h: -0.558% · r1d: -0.23% · r3d: -2.74% · ema21_slope: 0.0052% · dist_ema21: -0.363% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4766 | rs_1h: -0.055% · rs_4h: -0.342% · rs_1d: 0.03% · rs_3d: -1.73% · beta_24h: 2.442 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3372 | rvol_20: 0.99× · zscore_50: 0.004 · trend: -5.62% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6784 | ADX: 22.2 (weak) · Chop: 39.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.527% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.526% | 1.8R | -0.010% | 0.0R | 50.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.526% | 1.8R | -0.273% | 0.9R | 1.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.526% | 1.8R | -0.273% | 0.9R | 1.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.231% | 4.3R | -0.273% | 0.9R | 4.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.231% | 4.3R | -0.361% | 1.2R | 3.4× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | near -2.7ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -5.25% | -0.89 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -1.3ATR | — | 0.50 | bear_medium | -1.07% | -0.07 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | range_medium |
33%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | near 0.1ATR | 0.62 | range_low | -0.33% | +0.08 | 16/08 21:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | fading | volatile_reversal | range_low |
31%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.47 | range_low | +0.29% | -0.00 | 16/08 21:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 21b | — | 4.86×ATR | p75 | -1.37×ATR | p73 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 15b | — | 1.438×ATR | p0 | -0.37×ATR | p22 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 2.631×ATR | p49 | +0.419×ATR | p30 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 4b | — | 4.749×ATR | p75 | +2.568×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
62990.9
0.00243011
63144
0.64852
63026.5
0.00211695
63160
0.50596
63131.9
0.000476445
63162
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85.274
196
0.4247
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0.964
0.5786
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0.6667
0.8487
0.523
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3
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0.5183
0.5196
4.2913
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1.194
5.072
0.523
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0.3208
0.94
0.8475
0.5918
0.6008
0
0.3312
-6.3317
3.1362
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21:37 | 86.74700000 | 0% |
| 2 | 21:43 | 86.70400000 | -0.05% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 18:25:00 | 86.447 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 19:30:00 | 86.966 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 22:00:00 | 85.274 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 22:20:00 | 86.009 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 22:40:00 | 85.71 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 23:20:00 | 86.065 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 23:40:00 | 85.791 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 00:00:00 | 86.067 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 00:35:00 | 85.604 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 01:30:00 | 86.9 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 07:30:00 | 86.083 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 10:30:00 | 85.637 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 12:15:00 | 86.351 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 13:15:00 | 85.599 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 16:15:00 | 87.274 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 18:15:00 | 86.447 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 19:30:00 | 86.966 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 22:00:00 | 85.274 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 00:30:00 | 85.604 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 01:30:00 | 86.9 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 14:00:00 | 85.033 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 16:00:00 | 86.883 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 22:00:00 | 85.257 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 09:00:00 | 87.231 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 12:00:00 | 86.062 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 16:00:00 | 87.187 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 13:00:00 | 85.599 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 16:00:00 | 87.274 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 22:00:00 | 85.274 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 01:00:00 | 86.9 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86.747 | 86.9984 | 86.2442 | 2 | 175.85 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 86.9984 - 86.747 = 0.2514
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 86.747 - 86.2442 = 0.50279999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.50279999999999 / 0.2514 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2760.3186 | 100 | 31.8203 | 28.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.2514 = 31.82
Taille de position USD = 31.82 x 86.747 = 2760.29
Donc, tu peux acheter 31.82 avec un stoploss a 86.9984
Avec un position size USD de 2760.29$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 31.82 x 0.2514 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 31.82 x 0.50279999999999 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.58 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.29 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 16 $ | 0.58 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.2732 % | 94.27 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86.747 | 86.9984 | 86.2442 | 2 | 175.85 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 86.9984 - 86.747 = 0.2514
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 86.747 - 86.2442 = 0.50279999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.50279999999999 / 0.2514 = 2
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[result] => win
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Array
(
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.526% | 1.8R | -0.010% | 0.0R | 50.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.526% | 1.8R | -0.273% | 0.9R | 1.9× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.526% | 1.8R | -0.273% | 0.9R | 1.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.231% | 4.3R | -0.273% | 0.9R | 4.5× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.231% | 4.3R | -0.361% | 1.2R | 3.4× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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