Short Trade on TAO (CatchTheWave)
With 14.4 TAO at 197.42$ per unit. Take profit: 196.3085 (0.56 %) & Stop Loss: 197.9757 (0.28 %)
Short Trade on TAO (CatchTheWave)
With 14.4 TAO at 197.42$ per unit. Take profit: 196.3085 (0.56 %) & Stop Loss: 197.9757 (0.28 %)
Position
Entry 197.42$
Qty 14.3951 TAO
Size 2841.8813$ (margin 100$) (leverage 28)
Risk Setup
TP 196.3085 (+0.56%)
TP $ 16$
SL 197.9757 (-0.28%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4600
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.31×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.59×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.95×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 16/08 22:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.648432 15m : 0.505683 |
1H_regime : range_medium 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 16/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 16/08 22:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5036 | r1h: 0.450% · r4h: 0.347% · r1d: -0.05% · r3d: -4.16% · ema21_slope: -0.0057% · dist_ema21: -0.066% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4631 | rs_1h: -0.034% · rs_4h: -0.119% · rs_1d: -0.27% · rs_3d: -3.56% · beta_24h: 1.121 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6043 | rvol_20: 1.87× · zscore_50: 0.891 · trend: 44.60% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6026 | ADX: 20.0 (weak) · Chop: 46.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.510% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.208% | 0.7R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.208% | 0.7R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.491% | 1.8R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.434% | 5.1R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 2.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.434% | 5.1R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 2.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 30% | early | — | — | 0.61 | bear_high | -5.25% | +0.22 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | — | — | 0.67 | bear_medium | -1.20% | -0.22 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion | range_medium |
41%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near 0.3ATR | near 0.1ATR | 0.52 | range_low | -0.26% | +0.04 | 16/08 22:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | normal | range_low |
35%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | near -0.1ATR | 0.46 | range_low | +0.17% | +0.05 | 16/08 22:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 20b | — | 1.611×ATR | p0 | -0.265×ATR | p11 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 12b | — | 2.054×ATR | p7 | -0.828×ATR | p66 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 5b | — | 2.402×ATR | p46 | +0.12×ATR | p6 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.81×ATR | p20 | +1.025×ATR | p58 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63015.4
0.00357976
63241
0.648432
63035.1
0.00361454
63263
0.505683
63140.8
0.00239331
63292
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[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
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194.45
194
0.4576
0.6694
0.3156
0.2105
0.4017
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0.0925
0.5303
0.3254
0.88
0.5973
0.3458
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-0.0368
0.6667
0.6471
0.1547
0.4
0.6
-1
5
1
0.579
0.7299
3.7123
0.55
2.3919
4.59
0.1547
0
0.3157
0.8
0.4054
0.4749
0.5757
0
0.3458
-7.2004
3.8054
1
0
0
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 21:40:00 | 194.45 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 22:20:00 | 196.48 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 22:35:00 | 195.72 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 23:00:00 | 196.56 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 23:20:00 | 195.63 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 00:00:00 | 196.3 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 00:35:00 | 195.31 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 01:05:00 | 197.15 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 02:05:00 | 196.08 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 02:30:00 | 197.68 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 11:30:00 | 196.69 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 12:30:00 | 196.12 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 15:30:00 | 197.89 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 17:30:00 | 196.51 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 19:30:00 | 197.99 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 20:30:00 | 197.99 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 21:30:00 | 194.45 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 23:00:00 | 196.56 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-17 00:30:00 | 195.31 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 02:30:00 | 197.68 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 02:00:00 | 205.56 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 14:00:00 | 193.04 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 02:00:00 | 201.51 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 12:00:00 | 196.33 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 15:00:00 | 198.64 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 22:00:00 | 198.64 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 06:00:00 | 195.25 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-16 19:00:00 | 197.99 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-16 21:00:00 | 194.45 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-17 02:00:00 | 197.68 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 197.42 | 197.9757 | 196.3085 | 2 | 261.88 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 197.9757 - 197.42 = 0.5557
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 197.42 - 196.3085 = 1.1115
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.1115 / 0.5557 = 2.0002
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2841.8813 | 100 | 14.3951 | 28.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.5557 = 14.4
Taille de position USD = 14.4 x 197.42 = 2842.85
Donc, tu peux acheter 14.4 avec un stoploss a 197.9757
Avec un position size USD de 2842.85$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 14.4 x 0.5557 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 14.4 x 1.1115 = 16.01
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16.01$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.56 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.28 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.28 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4508 % | 160.14 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 197.42 | 197.9757 | 196.3085 | 2 | 261.88 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 197.9757 - 197.42 = 0.5557
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 197.42 - 196.3085 = 1.1115
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.1115 / 0.5557 = 2.0002
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(
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.208% | 0.7R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.208% | 0.7R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.491% | 1.8R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.434% | 5.1R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 2.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.434% | 5.1R | -0.628% | 2.2R | 2.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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