Short Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 4.57 TAO at 195.37$ per unit. Take profit: 190.995 (2.24 %) & Stop Loss: 197.12 (0.9 %)
17 Aug 2026 at 05:14:55
hyperliquid
TAO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
17 Aug 2026 05:14
→ 07:05
· 1 hour
Position
Entry 195.37$
Qty 4.5714 TAO
Size 893.1228$ (margin 100$) (leverage 9)
Risk Setup
TP 190.995 (+2.24%)
TP $ 20$
SL 197.12 (-0.9%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.90%
/ -8$
MAE -1.18%
MFE +0.40%
0.5R
expires
17 Aug 17:14
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 72081)
#31 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 17/08/2026 05:00
score du 17/08/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2991
Quality Score
0.509
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
17/08 05:01
17/08 05:01
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#31 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#31 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.15×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.69×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.03×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 17/08 05:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 17/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 17/08 04:00 Score : +4 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1588
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.92
Snapshot évalué :
17/08 05:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.5085
Score SMA
0.5102
Rank
#31
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2991
Rank Norm SMA
0.3840
Calculé le
17/08/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4301 | r1h: -0.892% · r4h: -1.037% · r1d: -0.42% · r3d: -2.31% · ema21_slope: -0.0086% · dist_ema21: -0.659% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4197 | rs_1h: -0.668% · rs_4h: -0.789% · rs_1d: -0.89% · rs_3d: -2.99% · beta_24h: 1.725 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4526 | rvol_20: 1.24× · zscore_50: 0.663 · trend: 17.77% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5604 | ADX: 14.9 (weak) · Chop: 46.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.594% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.896%
(1.7500)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.399% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.399% | 0.5R | -1.136% | 1.3R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.399% | 0.5R | -1.147% | 1.3R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.399% | 0.5R | -1.182% | 1.3R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.399% | 0.5R | -1.182% | 1.3R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.984% | 3.3R | -1.182% | 1.3R | 2.5× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.6
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 29% | early | — | — | 0.61 | bear_high | -4.20% | +0.15 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
40%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | — | 0.67 | range_medium | -0.54% | -0.28 | 17/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_medium |
48%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.53 | range_low | +0.14% | -0.09 | 17/08 04:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | normal | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | near 0.5ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.23% | -0.07 | 17/08 04:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 20b | — | 1.673×ATR | p0 | -0.161×ATR | p7 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 14b | — | 2.018×ATR | p3 | -0.707×ATR | p55 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 6b | — | 2.651×ATR | p49 | -0.944×ATR | p61 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 4.592×ATR | p86 | -2.176×ATR | p98 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8314
- reason: down_bo width=1.75×ATR dur=46b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 197.11999453
- tp_price: 190.99501369
- atr:
- score: 0.83144114597557
- expires_at: 2026-08-17T21:14:48.181985
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83144114597557
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.009
- obi_top10 : -0.009
- micro_price : 195.06854551
- spread_pct : 0.005127
- mid_price : 195.065
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0443
- obi_top5_std : 0.0198
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7030
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
197.99
- balance_zone_bottom:
196.025
- balance_zone_mid:
197.0075
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786795200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786957200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.7468
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
46
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8314
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786953600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
196.025
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7609
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.5823
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
18
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
11
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 1.12494526 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
46
inside_close_ratio
0.7609
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5823
Signaux confirmants (19)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:14 | 195.37000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 05:20 | 195.16000000 | -0.107% |
| 3 | 05:27 | 195.16000000 | -0.107% |
| 4 | 05:33 | 195.16000000 | -0.107% |
| 5 | 05:38 | 194.92000000 | -0.23% |
| 6 | 05:44 | 194.92000000 | -0.23% |
| 7 | 05:50 | 194.72000000 | -0.333% |
| 8 | 05:56 | 194.72000000 | -0.333% |
| 9 | 06:04 | 194.72000000 | -0.333% |
| 10 | 06:09 | 195.09000000 | -0.143% |
| 11 | 06:15 | 195.09000000 | -0.143% |
| 12 | 06:21 | 194.96000000 | -0.21% |
| 13 | 06:27 | 194.96000000 | -0.21% |
| 14 | 06:33 | 194.96000000 | -0.21% |
| 15 | 06:38 | 195.58000000 | +0.107% |
| 16 | 06:44 | 195.58000000 | +0.107% |
| 17 | 06:50 | 195.93000000 | +0.287% |
| 18 | 06:56 | 195.93000000 | +0.287% |
| 19 | 07:04 | 195.93000000 | +0.287% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7030ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
83%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.009
avg -0.044
± 0.020
OBI Top 10
-0.009
Microstructure
Mid Price
195.0650
Micro Price
195.0685
Spread
0.0051%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 195.37 | 197.12 | 190.995 | 2.5 | 275.19 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 195.37
- Stop Loss: 197.12
- Take Profit: 190.995
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 197.12 - 195.37 = 1.75
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 195.37 - 190.995 = 4.375
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.375 / 1.75 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 893.1228 | 100 | 4.5714 | 9.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 1.75
Taille de position = 8 / 1.75 = 4.57
Taille de position USD = 4.57 x 195.37 = 892.84
Donc, tu peux acheter 4.57 avec un stoploss a 197.12
Avec un position size USD de 892.84$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 4.57 x 1.75 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 4.57 x 4.375 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 4.57
- Taille de position USD 892.84
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.24 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.9 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.90 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1005 % | 122.86 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 195.37 | 197.12 | 190.995 | 2.5 | 275.19 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 195.37
- Stop Loss: 197.12
- Take Profit: 190.995
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 197.12 - 195.37 = 1.75
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 195.37 - 190.995 = 4.375
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.375 / 1.75 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 190.995
[entry_price] => 195.37
[stop_loss] => 197.295
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 11:05:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 190.995
[entry_price] => 195.37
[stop_loss] => 197.47
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-17 11:05:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.896%
(1.7500)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.399% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.399% | 0.5R | -1.136% | 1.3R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.399% | 0.5R | -1.147% | 1.3R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.399% | 0.5R | -1.182% | 1.3R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.399% | 0.5R | -1.182% | 1.3R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.984% | 3.3R | -1.182% | 1.3R | 2.5× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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