Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_pullback_v1)
With 100000 PENGU at 0.00594$ per unit. Take profit: 0.005886 (0.91 %) & Stop Loss: 0.00602 (1.35 %)
17 Aug 2026 at 05:15:11
hyperliquid
PENGU
SHORT
momentum_pullback_v1
hyperliquid
17 Aug 2026 05:15
→ 17:00
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.00594$
Qty 100000 PENGU
Size 594$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 0.005886 (+0.91%)
TP $ 5.4$
SL 0.00602 (-1.35%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.68
Status
loss
PnL
-1.35%
/ -8$
MAE -1.38%
MFE +0.62%
0.5R
expires
17 Aug 17:15
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 72085)
#42 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 17/08/2026 05:00
score du 17/08/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2351
Quality Score
0.466
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
17/08 05:02
17/08 05:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#42 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.35 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#42 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.35 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.10×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.04×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.57×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 17/08 05:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 16/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 17/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 17/08 04:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1588
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.92
Snapshot évalué :
17/08 05:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
17/08/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.4656
Score SMA
0.4932
Rank
#42
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2351
Rank Norm SMA
0.3074
Calculé le
17/08/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3994 | r1h: -1.131% · r4h: -0.469% · r1d: -1.02% · r3d: -3.93% · ema21_slope: -0.0566% · dist_ema21: -0.521% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4006 | rs_1h: -0.907% · rs_4h: -0.220% · rs_1d: -1.49% · rs_3d: -4.61% · beta_24h: 2.228 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1816 | rvol_20: 0.19× · zscore_50: -0.438 · trend: -41.92% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7288 | ADX: 31.4 (trend) · Chop: 42.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.774% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.347%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.219% | 0.2R | -0.185% | 0.1R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.404% | 0.3R | -0.505% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.404% | 0.3R | -0.623% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.623% | 0.5R | -1.296% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.623% | 0.5R | -1.381% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.02
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.73 | bear_high | -4.20% | +0.04 | 16/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.57 | range_medium | -0.54% | -0.35 | 17/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_medium |
51%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | — | 0.46 | range_low | +0.14% | -0.16 | 17/08 04:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | range_low |
39%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near -0.6ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.23% | -0.03 | 17/08 04:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 3.099×ATR | p17 | -0.611×ATR | p31 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 41b | — | 8.452×ATR | p100 | -0.987×ATR | p59 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 8b | — | 2.509×ATR | p36 | -0.433×ATR | p28 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 3.329×ATR | p58 | -0.988×ATR | p61 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_pullback_v1 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.00602
- tp_price: 0.00588606
- atr: 2.157E-5
- expires_at: 2026-08-17T21:15:11+00:00
Details
- rank: 41
- total: 46
- score: 0.3994
- avg_rank_8h: 38.1
- rank_velocity: 2.9
- pullback_depth_atr: 5.1
- trigger_price: 0.00597
- fip_24h: 0
- confidence: 0.889
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00594 | 0.00602 | 0.005886 | 0.68 | 0.007694 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.00594
- Stop Loss: 0.00602
- Take Profit: 0.005886
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.00602 - 0.00594 = 8.0E-5
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.00594 - 0.005886 = 5.4E-5
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.4E-5 / 8.0E-5 = 0.675
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 594 | 100 | 100000 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 8.0E-5
Taille de position = 8 / 8.0E-5 = 100000
Taille de position USD = 100000 x 0.00594 = 594
Donc, tu peux acheter 100000 avec un stoploss a 0.00602
Avec un position size USD de 594$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 100000 x 8.0E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 100000 x 5.4E-5 = 5.4
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 5.4$
Résumé
- Taille de position 100000
- Taille de position USD 594
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 5.4
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.675
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.91 % | 5.4 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.35 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.35 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3805 % | 102.5 % | 14 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00594 | 0.00602 | 0.005886 | 0.68 | 0.007694 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.00594
- Stop Loss: 0.00602
- Take Profit: 0.005886
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.00602 - 0.00594 = 8.0E-5
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.00594 - 0.005886 = 5.4E-5
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.4E-5 / 8.0E-5 = 0.675
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.347%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.219% | 0.2R | -0.185% | 0.1R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.404% | 0.3R | -0.505% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.404% | 0.3R | -0.623% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.623% | 0.5R | -1.296% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.623% | 0.5R | -1.381% | 1.0R | 0.5× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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