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Short Trade on NIL

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18 Aug 2026 at 10:10:04 hyperliquid

Short Trade on NIL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 2025.59 NIL at 0.0465$ per unit. Take profit: 0.04531 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.05042 (8.5 %)

NIL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 18 Aug 2026 10:10 → 12:45 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.04647$

Qty 2025.5882 NIL

Size 94.1352$ (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.04531 (+2.5%)

TP $ 2.35$

SL 0.05042 (-8.5%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.29

Status win PnL +2.50% / +2.35$ MAE -1.31% MFE +4.95% 0.6R expires 18 Aug 16:10

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 73735)
#48 / 48 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 10:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4515

Quality Score
0.386
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 10:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 73735)
#48 / 48 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 10:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4515

Quality Score
0.386
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#48 / 48 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-1
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
8.50 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#48 / 48 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
8.50 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near 0.13×ATR
4h clear 1.93×ATR
1d clear —
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d — — OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
1.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 10:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

18/08 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

18/08 09:00

Score : -1 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1617
range compression range_bound
Strategic range

—

compression

0

Operational range

—

compression

0

Tactical bull

—

expansion

-1

Micro —

—

MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.83
Transition risk : 0.17
Score contribution (this trade) -1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.90
Snapshot évalué : 18/08 10:00 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 18/08/2026 10:00
Score brut
0.3858
Score SMA
0.5494
Rank
#48 / 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4515
Rank Norm SMA
0.5812
Calculé le
18/08/2026 10:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3445 r1h: -2.450% · r4h: -8.887% · r1d: -2.94% · r3d: -5.76% · ema21_slope: -0.0253% · dist_ema21: -5.465%
Force Relative 25% 0.1661 rs_1h: -2.381% · rs_4h: -8.890% · rs_1d: -3.75% · rs_3d: -7.54% · beta_24h: 1.350
Volume 20% 0.4174 rvol_20: 0.91× · zscore_50: 0.235 · trend: 52.58%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5269 ADX: 19.6 (weak) · Chop: 55.1 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.7840 ATR%: 3.648% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 18/08/2026 08:00
Score brut
0.3913
Score SMA
—
Rank
#48 / 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
18/08/2026 08:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5306 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.415% · r1d: -3.32% · r3d: -5.30% · ema21_slope: 0.3146% · dist_ema21: -2.518%
Force Relative 25% 0.4702 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.395% · rs_1d: -3.55% · rs_3d: -7.27% · beta_24h: 0.193
Volume 20% 0.1665 rvol_20: 0.02× · zscore_50: -0.947 · trend: -27.81%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5419 ADX: 41.3 (trend) · Chop: 75.6 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 7.436% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -8.500% (0.0040)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.278% 0.2R -1.306% 0.2R 1.0× 12
2h +1.872% 0.2R -1.306% 0.2R 1.4× 24
4h +3.652% 0.4R -1.306% 0.2R 2.8× 48
6h ★ +4.945% 0.6R -1.306% 0.2R 3.8× 72
8h +4.945% 0.6R -1.306% 0.2R 3.8× 96
12h +6.873% 0.8R -1.306% 0.2R 5.3× 144

computed 2 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.89
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d —
4h ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
54%
noisy_chop 40% early — — 0.24 range_medium +0.50% -0.91 18/08 08:00
1h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate balanced normal bear_high_confirmed
54%
noisy_chop 43% mid near 0.1ATR — 0.00 bull_low +0.79% -0.06 18/08 09:00
15m ↓ down transition bullish_transition moderate fading expansion_after_compression bear_high
50%
choppy 49% late near -1.1ATR — — range_low +0.16% -0.73 18/08 09:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
4h ↑ up early 14b — 0.843×ATR p0 -0.19×ATR p15
1h ↓ down mid 3b — 2.892×ATR p52 -1.841×ATR p79
15m ↓ down late 13b — 7.079×ATR p93 -3.218×ATR p97

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.05042247
  2. tp_price: 0.04531118
  3. atr: 0.00157979
  4. expires_at: 2026-08-18T20:10:04+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 47
  2. total: 49
  3. score: 0.3445
  4. delta_2h: -0.067
  5. extension_atr: -0.83
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.4515
  9. confidence: 0.958

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.04647 0.05042 0.04531 0.29 0.08839
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.04647
  • Stop Loss: 0.05042
  • Take Profit: 0.04531

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.05042 - 0.04647 = 0.00395

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.04647 - 0.04531 = 0.00116

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00116 / 0.00395 = 0.2937

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
94.1352 94.1352 2025.5882 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00395

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00395 = 2025.32

Taille de position USD = 2025.32 x 0.04647 = 94.12

Donc, tu peux acheter 2025.32 avec un stoploss a 0.05042

Avec un position size USD de 94.12$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 2025.32 x 0.00395 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 2025.32 x 0.00116 = 2.35

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.35$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 2025.32
  • Taille de position USD 94.12
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 2.35
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.2937

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.5 % 2.35 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
8.5 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
2.35 $ 2.50
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.3062 % 15.37 % 5
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.04647 0.05042 0.04531 0.29 0.08839
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.04647
  • Stop Loss: 0.05042
  • Take Profit: 0.04531

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.05042 - 0.04647 = 0.00395

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.04647 - 0.04531 = 0.00116

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00116 / 0.00395 = 0.2937

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -8.500% (0.0040)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.278% 0.2R -1.306% 0.2R 1.0× 12
2h +1.872% 0.2R -1.306% 0.2R 1.4× 24
4h +3.652% 0.4R -1.306% 0.2R 2.8× 48
6h ★ +4.945% 0.6R -1.306% 0.2R 3.8× 72
8h +4.945% 0.6R -1.306% 0.2R 3.8× 96
12h +6.873% 0.8R -1.306% 0.2R 5.3× 144

computed 2 months ago

Commentaires

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