Short Trade on AAVE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 5.42 AAVE at 87.053$ per unit. Take profit: 83.3637 (4.24 %) & Stop Loss: 88.5287 (1.7 %)
18 Aug 2026 at 19:07:38
hyperliquid
AAVE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
18 Aug 2026 19:07
→ 04:35
· 9 hours
Position
Entry 87.053$
Qty 5.4211 AAVE
Size 471.9203$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 83.3637 (+4.24%)
TP $ 20$
SL 88.5287 (-1.7%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.70%
/ -8$
MAE -1.78%
MFE +0.12%
0.1R
expires
19 Aug 07:07
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 74236)
#13 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 18/08/2026 19:00
score du 18/08/2026 19:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7269
Quality Score
0.504
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#13 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#13 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.31×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.49×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.69×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
18/08 19:00
18/08 19:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 17/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 18/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 18/08 18:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1626
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bull
— |
expansion
-1 |
| Tactical |
bull
— |
expansion
-1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.83
Transition risk :
0.17
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.65
Snapshot évalué :
18/08 19:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3796
Score SMA
—
Rank
#30
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
17/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3890 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.13% · r3d: 3.45% · ema21_slope: -0.2982% · dist_ema21: -0.676% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5092 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.04% · rs_3d: 1.34% · beta_24h: 1.844 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.0913 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -1.630 · trend: -72.70% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3105 | ADX: 14.2 (weak) · Chop: 76.3 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7077 | ATR%: 3.877% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.5039
Score SMA
0.5142
Rank
#13
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7269
Rank Norm SMA
0.4995
Calculé le
18/08/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4228 | r1h: -1.086% · r4h: -2.651% · r1d: -1.64% · r3d: 0.95% · ema21_slope: 0.0356% · dist_ema21: -1.533% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3621 | rs_1h: -1.140% · rs_4h: -2.454% · rs_1d: -2.19% · rs_3d: -1.43% · beta_24h: 0.798 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4249 | rvol_20: 1.36× · zscore_50: 0.173 · trend: 7.42% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6773 | ADX: 24.7 (weak) · Chop: 41.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.719% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
18/08/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5018
Score SMA
0.4957
Rank
#17
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6383
Rank Norm SMA
0.6281
Calculé le
18/08/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5201 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.16% · r3d: 3.75% · ema21_slope: 0.1062% · dist_ema21: 1.530% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5109 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.074% · rs_1d: 0.04% · rs_3d: 1.34% · beta_24h: 1.535 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1310 | rvol_20: 0.02× · zscore_50: -1.313 · trend: -36.14% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6126 | ADX: 21.0 (weak) · Chop: 45.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.230% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.695%
(1.4757)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.627% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.056% | 0.0R | -0.627% | 0.4R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.117% | 0.1R | -0.627% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.117% | 0.1R | -1.230% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.117% | 0.1R | -1.776% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.117% | 0.1R | -12.057% | 7.1R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.14
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | near -1.7ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -2.51% | -0.69 | 17/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | near 0.5ATR | near -0.3ATR | 0.51 | bull_medium | +1.06% | -0.09 | 18/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | range_medium |
36%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.63 | bull_low | +1.24% | -0.14 | 18/08 18:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion_after_compression | bear_low_confirmed |
44%
|
ranging_calm 56% | late | — | — | — | range_low | +0.36% | -0.22 | 18/08 18:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 22b | — | 3.698×ATR | p40 | -0.167×ATR | p13 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 26b | — | 2.756×ATR | p16 | +0.302×ATR | p21 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 8b | — | 4.291×ATR | p85 | -2.326×ATR | p97 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 15b | — | 8.338×ATR | p100 | -4.359×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8333
- reason: down_bo width=2.72×ATR dur=31b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 88.52872364
- tp_price: 83.36369091
- atr:
- score: 0.83326368935293
- expires_at: 2026-08-19T11:07:30.423736
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83326368935293
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0804
- obi_top10 : 0.0771
- micro_price : 87.06397436
- spread_pct : 0.011486
- mid_price : 87.065
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 88
- ask_wall_size : 2865
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1173
- obi_top5_std : 0.0208
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7030
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
89.319
- balance_zone_bottom:
87.613
- balance_zone_mid:
88.466
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786986000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787094000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7199
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
31
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8333
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787090400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
87.613
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8065
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.8928
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
11
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.62723637 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
31
inside_close_ratio
0.8065
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.8928
Signaux confirmants (51)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:07 | 87.05300000 | 0% |
| 2 | 19:13 | 87.05300000 | 0% |
| 3 | 19:19 | 87.32600000 | +0.314% |
| 4 | 19:25 | 87.32600000 | +0.314% |
| 5 | 19:31 | 87.32600000 | +0.314% |
| 6 | 19:37 | 87.57400000 | +0.598% |
| 7 | 19:43 | 87.57400000 | +0.598% |
| 8 | 19:49 | 87.54900000 | +0.57% |
| 9 | 19:55 | 87.54900000 | +0.57% |
| 10 | 20:02 | 87.54900000 | +0.57% |
| 11 | 20:07 | 87.30200000 | +0.286% |
| 12 | 20:13 | 87.30200000 | +0.286% |
| 13 | 20:19 | 87.12800000 | +0.086% |
| 14 | 20:25 | 87.12800000 | +0.086% |
| 15 | 20:31 | 87.12800000 | +0.086% |
| 16 | 20:37 | 87.33800000 | +0.327% |
| 17 | 20:43 | 87.33800000 | +0.327% |
| 18 | 20:49 | 87.34100000 | +0.331% |
| 19 | 20:55 | 87.34100000 | +0.331% |
| 20 | 21:02 | 87.34100000 | +0.331% |
| 21 | 21:07 | 87.24200000 | +0.217% |
| 22 | 21:13 | 87.24200000 | +0.217% |
| 23 | 21:19 | 87.44500000 | +0.45% |
| 24 | 21:25 | 87.44500000 | +0.45% |
| 25 | 21:32 | 87.44500000 | +0.45% |
| 26 | 21:37 | 87.48500000 | +0.496% |
| 27 | 21:43 | 87.48500000 | +0.496% |
| 28 | 21:49 | 87.43600000 | +0.44% |
| 29 | 21:55 | 87.43600000 | +0.44% |
| 30 | 22:02 | 87.43600000 | +0.44% |
| 31 | 22:07 | 87.06300000 | +0.011% |
| 32 | 22:13 | 87.06300000 | +0.011% |
| 33 | 22:19 | 87.21800000 | +0.19% |
| 34 | 22:25 | 87.21800000 | +0.19% |
| 35 | 22:32 | 87.21800000 | +0.19% |
| 36 | 22:37 | 87.11100000 | +0.067% |
| 37 | 22:43 | 87.11100000 | +0.067% |
| 38 | 22:49 | 87.19100000 | +0.159% |
| 39 | 22:55 | 87.19100000 | +0.159% |
| 40 | 23:02 | 87.19100000 | +0.159% |
| 41 | 23:07 | 87.20200000 | +0.171% |
| 42 | 23:13 | 87.20200000 | +0.171% |
| 43 | 23:19 | 87.40900000 | +0.409% |
| 44 | 23:25 | 87.40900000 | +0.409% |
| 45 | 23:31 | 87.40900000 | +0.409% |
| 46 | 23:37 | 87.45400000 | +0.461% |
| 47 | 23:43 | 87.45400000 | +0.461% |
| 48 | 23:49 | 87.55300000 | +0.574% |
| 49 | 23:55 | 87.55300000 | +0.574% |
| 50 | 00:02 | 87.55300000 | +0.574% |
| 51 | 01:07 | 87.43800000 | +0.442% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7030ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
83%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.080
avg 0.117
± 0.021
OBI Top 10
0.077
Microstructure
Mid Price
87.0650
Micro Price
87.0640
Spread
0.0115%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
88.0000
Size
2,865.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.053 | 88.5287 | 83.3637 | 2.5 | 133.91 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 87.053
- Stop Loss: 88.5287
- Take Profit: 83.3637
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 88.5287 - 87.053 = 1.4757
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 87.053 - 83.3637 = 3.6893
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 3.6893 / 1.4757 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 471.9203 | 100 | 5.4211 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 1.4757
Taille de position = 8 / 1.4757 = 5.42
Taille de position USD = 5.42 x 87.053 = 471.83
Donc, tu peux acheter 5.42 avec un stoploss a 88.5287
Avec un position size USD de 471.83$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 5.42 x 1.4757 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 5.42 x 3.6893 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 5.42
- Taille de position USD 471.83
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.24 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.7 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.70 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.7759 % | 104.76 % | 4 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.053 | 88.5287 | 83.3637 | 2.5 | 133.91 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 87.053
- Stop Loss: 88.5287
- Take Profit: 83.3637
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 88.5287 - 87.053 = 1.4757
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 87.053 - 83.3637 = 3.6893
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 3.6893 / 1.4757 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.695%
(1.4757)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.627% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.056% | 0.0R | -0.627% | 0.4R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.117% | 0.1R | -0.627% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.117% | 0.1R | -1.230% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.117% | 0.1R | -1.776% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.117% | 0.1R | -12.057% | 7.1R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.