Short Trade on ONDO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1331.04 ONDO at 0.325$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3099 (4.62 %) & Stop Loss: 0.331 (1.88 %)
19 Aug 2026 at 00:26:05
hyperliquid
ONDO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
19 Aug 2026 00:26
→ 10:05
· 9 hours
Position
Entry 0.3249$
Qty 1331.0395 ONDO
Size 432.5213$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3099 (+4.62%)
TP $ 19.97$
SL 0.331 (-1.88%)
SL $ 8.12$
RR 2.46
Status
loss
PnL
-1.88%
/ -8.12$
MAE -7.72%
MFE +0.85%
0.5R
expires
19 Aug 12:25
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 74580)
#24 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 19/08/2026 00:00
score du 19/08/2026 00:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3866
Quality Score
0.498
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#24 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#24 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.16×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.32×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.32×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
19/08 00:16
19/08 00:16
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 18/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 19/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 19/08 00:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1631
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
— |
compression
0 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.90
Transition risk :
0.10
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.94
Snapshot évalué :
19/08 00:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
18/08/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3027
Score SMA
—
Rank
#44
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
—
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
18/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2417 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.68% · r3d: -2.00% · ema21_slope: -0.6513% · dist_ema21: -6.116% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3965 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.49% · rs_3d: -4.70% · beta_24h: 1.247 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1304 | rvol_20: 0.01× · zscore_50: -1.043 · trend: -66.75% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4643 | ADX: 17.2 (weak) · Chop: 60.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.3539 | ATR%: 4.938% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
19/08/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4983
Score SMA
0.5081
Rank
#24
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3866
Rank Norm SMA
0.4517
Calculé le
19/08/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4748 | r1h: 0.782% · r4h: -0.055% · r1d: -1.30% · r3d: 0.25% · ema21_slope: -0.0883% · dist_ema21: -0.626% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5103 | rs_1h: 0.788% · rs_4h: 0.532% · rs_1d: -1.57% · rs_3d: -1.68% · beta_24h: 1.175 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1567 | rvol_20: 0.40× · zscore_50: -0.854 · trend: -39.74% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6461 | ADX: 21.6 (weak) · Chop: 42.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.819% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
19/08/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4463
Score SMA
0.4480
Rank
#31
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2553
Rank Norm SMA
0.3005
Calculé le
19/08/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4338 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.264% · r1d: -1.35% · r3d: 0.14% · ema21_slope: -0.0067% · dist_ema21: -1.693% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4405 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.213% · rs_1d: -1.50% · rs_3d: -1.80% · beta_24h: 0.964 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1160 | rvol_20: 0.03× · zscore_50: -1.570 · trend: -34.51% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5524 | ADX: 16.5 (weak) · Chop: 48.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.567% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.878%
(0.0061)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.443% | 0.2R | -0.129% | 0.1R | 3.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.850% | 0.5R | -0.129% | 0.1R | 6.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.850% | 0.5R | -0.246% | 0.1R | 3.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.850% | 0.5R | -0.533% | 0.3R | 1.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.850% | 0.5R | -7.719% | 4.1R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.850% | 0.5R | -9.384% | 5.0R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.82
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.62 | bear_high | -2.62% | -0.99 | 18/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | near -1.3ATR | — | 0.50 | range_medium | +0.59% | -0.14 | 19/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.49 | range_low | +0.64% | -0.14 | 19/08 00:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_low |
49%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.60 | range_low | -0.11% | +0.01 | 19/08 00:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 20b | — | 6.495×ATR | p81 | -1.655×ATR | p80 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 3.428×ATR | p42 | -1.021×ATR | p56 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 1.218×ATR | p0 | -1.036×ATR | p59 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 1.394×ATR | p0 | -0.189×ATR | p11 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8505
- reason: down_bo width=2.31×ATR dur=27b phase=extending
- stop_price: 0.33096034
- tp_price: 0.30992416
- atr:
- score: 0.85045866140041
- expires_at: 2026-08-19T16:25:58.117199
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.85045866140041
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0196
- obi_top10 : -0.0024
- micro_price : 0.32520063
- spread_pct : 0.03075
- mid_price : 0.32525
- bid_wall_price : 0.324
- bid_wall_size : 1897069.2
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.326
- ask_wall_size : 2831078.18
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0201
- obi_top5_std : 0.003
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6986
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.33365
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.32776
- balance_zone_mid:
0.330705
- balance_zone_start_time:
1787018400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1787112000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3068
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
27
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8505
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1787086800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.32776
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7037
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
7
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.1005
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
2
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00255336 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
27
inside_close_ratio
0.7037
bars_since_breakout
7
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1005
Signaux confirmants (25)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:26 | 0.32495000 | +0.015% |
| 2 | 00:32 | 0.32495000 | +0.015% |
| 3 | 00:38 | 0.32494000 | +0.012% |
| 4 | 00:44 | 0.32494000 | +0.012% |
| 5 | 00:50 | 0.32470000 | -0.062% |
| 6 | 00:56 | 0.32470000 | -0.062% |
| 7 | 01:02 | 0.32470000 | -0.062% |
| 8 | 01:08 | 0.32443000 | -0.145% |
| 9 | 01:14 | 0.32443000 | -0.145% |
| 10 | 01:20 | 0.32416000 | -0.228% |
| 11 | 01:26 | 0.32416000 | -0.228% |
| 12 | 01:32 | 0.32416000 | -0.228% |
| 13 | 02:50 | 0.32421000 | -0.212% |
| 14 | 02:56 | 0.32421000 | -0.212% |
| 15 | 03:03 | 0.32421000 | -0.212% |
| 16 | 03:08 | 0.32448000 | -0.129% |
| 17 | 03:14 | 0.32448000 | -0.129% |
| 18 | 03:20 | 0.32482000 | -0.025% |
| 19 | 03:26 | 0.32482000 | -0.025% |
| 20 | 03:32 | 0.32482000 | -0.025% |
| 21 | 03:38 | 0.32499000 | +0.028% |
| 22 | 03:44 | 0.32499000 | +0.028% |
| 23 | 03:50 | 0.32504000 | +0.043% |
| 24 | 03:56 | 0.32504000 | +0.043% |
| 25 | 04:03 | 0.32504000 | +0.043% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6986ms
Confidence avant OB :
85%
→
85%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.020
avg -0.020
± 0.003
OBI Top 10
-0.002
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.3253
Micro Price
0.3252
Spread
0.0308%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.3240
Size
1,897,069.20
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.3260
Size
2,831,078.18
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3249 | 0.331 | 0.3099 | 2.46 | 0.4086 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3249
- Stop Loss: 0.331
- Take Profit: 0.3099
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.331 - 0.3249 = 0.0061
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3249 - 0.3099 = 0.015
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.015 / 0.0061 = 2.459
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 432.5213 | 100 | 1331.0395 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0061
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0061 = 1311.48
Taille de position USD = 1311.48 x 0.3249 = 426.1
Donc, tu peux acheter 1311.48 avec un stoploss a 0.331
Avec un position size USD de 426.1$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1311.48 x 0.0061 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1311.48 x 0.015 = 19.67
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.67$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1311.48
- Taille de position USD 426.1
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.67
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.459
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.62 % | 19.97 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.88 % | 8.12 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.12 $ | -1.88 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9791 % | 105.41 % | 20 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3249 | 0.331 | 0.3099 | 2.46 | 0.4086 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3249
- Stop Loss: 0.331
- Take Profit: 0.3099
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.331 - 0.3249 = 0.0061
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3249 - 0.3099 = 0.015
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.015 / 0.0061 = 2.459
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.878%
(0.0061)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.443% | 0.2R | -0.129% | 0.1R | 3.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.850% | 0.5R | -0.129% | 0.1R | 6.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.850% | 0.5R | -0.246% | 0.1R | 3.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.850% | 0.5R | -0.533% | 0.3R | 1.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.850% | 0.5R | -7.719% | 4.1R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.850% | 0.5R | -9.384% | 5.0R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
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