Short Trade on BTC (CatchTheWave)
With 0.049 BTC at 83844$ per unit. Take profit: 83518.0763 (0.39 %) & Stop Loss: 84006.9618 (0.19 %)
Short Trade on BTC (CatchTheWave)
With 0.049 BTC at 83844$ per unit. Take profit: 83518.0763 (0.39 %) & Stop Loss: 84006.9618 (0.19 %)
Position
Entry 83844$
Qty 0.04909 BTC
Size 4116.0069$ (margin 100$) (leverage 41)
Risk Setup
TP 83518.0763 (+0.39%)
TP $ 16$
SL 84006.9618 (-0.19%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6999
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.44×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.05×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 3.43×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (+1) 24/09 15:01 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
1H_regime : range_medium 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 28/09 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 29/09 01:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
| Strategic | bull | expansion | 0.90 | -2 |
| Operational | range | range | 0.25 | 0 |
| Tactical | bear | transition | 0.55 | +1 |
| Micro | range | range | 0.25 |
| 15m | 48.6% |
| 1h | 80.0% |
| 4h | 97.1% |
| 24h | 38.6% |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 48.6% | +0.00% |
| 4h | 87.1% | +1.98% |
| 24h | 34.3% | -0.75% |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6624 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.16% · r3d: -0.72% · ema21_slope: 0.5574% · dist_ema21: 2.479% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5000 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3306 | rvol_20: 0.99× · zscore_50: -0.010 · trend: -10.91% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8592 | ADX: 43.1 (trend) · Chop: 36.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.742% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4959 | r1h: 0.277% · r4h: 0.441% · r1d: 0.31% · r3d: -0.59% · ema21_slope: -0.0201% · dist_ema21: 0.053% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5000 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1690 | rvol_20: 0.49× · zscore_50: -0.586 · trend: -43.95% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5512 | ADX: 22.0 (weak) · Chop: 54.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.539% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4951 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.509% · r1d: -0.32% · r3d: -1.04% · ema21_slope: -0.0386% · dist_ema21: -0.922% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5000 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2711 | rvol_20: 0.90× · zscore_50: -0.632 · trend: -12.80% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4778 | ADX: 12.7 (weak) · Chop: 54.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.998% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.027% | 0.1R | -0.389% | 2.0R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.066% | 0.3R | -0.584% | 3.0R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.153% | 0.8R | -0.584% | 3.0R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.153% | 0.8R | -0.809% | 4.2R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.176% | 6.1R | -0.809% | 4.2R | 1.5× | 144 |
computed 30 minutes ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bull_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 35% | mid | near -0.1ATR | — | — | — | — | — | 28/09 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | — | — | — | — | — | 29/09 01:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | fading | expansion | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | near -1.5ATR | — | — | — | — | 29/09 02:15 |
| 5m | ↑ up | range | range | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | range_low |
34%
|
noisy_chop 53% | late | — | near 0.3ATR | — | — | — | — | 29/09 02:35 |
| TF | Direction | Regime | Tradability | Move | PAQ | Momentum | Near S/D | RVOL | Vol zone | POC dist | LVN | VP ref | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
166785 |
↑ up | bull_high |
61%
|
early 13b 0.8ATR | noisy_chop 37% | 0.601 |
— — |
0.99 | value | -1.20 ATR | inside | #92593 |
27/09 20:00
upd 28/09 20:15
|
|
4h
168712 |
↓ down | bull_high |
56%
|
mid 3b -1.1ATR | noisy_chop 35% | 0.630 |
near -0.1ATR — |
0.78 | below_value | -2.39 ATR | — | #93225 |
28/09 20:00
upd 29/09 00:05
|
|
1h
anchor
169663 |
↔ neutral | bear_medium |
58%
|
mid 12b -0.5ATR | noisy_chop 39% | 0.652 |
— — |
0.17 | value | -1.96 ATR | — | #93667 |
29/09 01:00
upd 29/09 02:05
|
|
15m
169859 |
↔ neutral | range_low |
38%
|
late 3b 2.8ATR | noisy_chop 43% | 0.469 |
— near -1.5ATR |
1.01 | value | -1.44 ATR | — | #93843 |
29/09 02:15
upd 29/09 02:30
|
|
5m
169938 |
↑ up | range_low |
34%
|
late 12b 2.1ATR | noisy_chop 53% | 0.694 |
— near 0.3ATR |
0.43 | value | -1.44 ATR | — | #93843 |
29/09 02:35
upd 29/09 02:40
|
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 13b | — | 3.737×ATR | p40 | +0.827×ATR | p45 |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 3b | — | 0.397×ATR | p0 | -1.13×ATR | p61 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 12b | — | 2.99×ATR | p59 | -0.533×ATR | p31 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 3b | — | 4.552×ATR | p94 | +2.81×ATR | p98 |
| 5m | ↑ up | late | 12b | — | 7.796×ATR | p100 | +2.079×ATR | p83 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
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[1] => Array
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[0] => 2026-09-26 08:00:00
[1] => 84321
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[0] => 2026-09-26 13:00:00
[1] => 83819
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[1] => 84978
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[6] => Array
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[1] => 82551
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[7] => Array
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[2] => L
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[9] => Array
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[1] => 83915
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[detected_trend] => range
[features] => Array
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[ms_trend_state] => 0
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.023833641184532
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 1.4057438476043
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 5
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 1.4299182903834
[ms_bos_up] => 0
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[1] => Array
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[0] => 2026-09-28 18:45:00
[1] => 84044
[2] => H
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[2] => Array
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[0] => 2026-09-28 19:30:00
[1] => 83050
[2] => L
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[3] => Array
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[0] => 2026-09-28 21:00:00
[1] => 83630
[2] => H
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[4] => Array
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[0] => 2026-09-28 22:00:00
[1] => 83050
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[5] => Array
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[1] => 83596
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[1] => 82732
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[7] => Array
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[1] => 82830
[2] => L
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[8] => Array
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[1] => 82924
[2] => L
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[9] => Array
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[1] => 83920
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[detected_trend] => uptrend
[features] => Array
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[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.0011916110581506
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 1.1998938787323
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 4
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 1.2010998022285
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[1] => Array
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[1] => 83115
[2] => H
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[2] => Array
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[1] => 82851
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[3] => Array
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[4] => Array
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[7] => Array
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[1] => 83040
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[1] => 82924
[2] => L
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[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 2
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 13
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82732
194
0.6209
0.5339
0.4012
0.2621
0.515
0.9005
0.2435
0.5503
0.6875
0.6415
0.6025
0.493
-0.0189
-0.0343
0.6667
1.1248
0.5589
0.65
0.35
1
13
1
0.4757
0.3701
3.4962
0.65
0.9005
3.1483
0.5589
0.352
0.2153
0.66
0.0682
0.5303
0.6048
0.6719
0.493
-3.106
3.0206
1
0
1
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 01:35:00 | 82732 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 02:20:00 | 83115 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 02:35:00 | 82851 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 03:15:00 | 82830 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 03:25:00 | 83178 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 04:05:00 | 82985 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 04:20:00 | 83258 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 04:45:00 | 83040 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 05:35:00 | 82924 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 06:30:00 | 83920 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 17:15:00 | 84370 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-28 18:45:00 | 84044 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-28 19:30:00 | 83050 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-28 21:00:00 | 83630 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-28 22:00:00 | 83050 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-28 23:00:00 | 83596 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 01:30:00 | 82732 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 03:15:00 | 82830 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 05:30:00 | 82924 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 06:30:00 | 83920 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 02:00:00 | 84111 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-26 08:00:00 | 84321 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-26 13:00:00 | 83819 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-26 20:00:00 | 83797 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-27 13:00:00 | 85138 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-28 00:00:00 | 84978 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-28 14:00:00 | 82551 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-28 17:00:00 | 84370 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 01:00:00 | 82732 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 06:00:00 | 83915 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83844 | 84006.9618 | 83518.0763 | 2 | 83439 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 84006.9618 - 83844 = 162.9618
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 83844 - 83518.0763 = 325.9237
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 325.9237 / 162.9618 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4116.0069 | 100 | 0.04909 | 41.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 162.9618 = 0.05
Taille de position USD = 0.05 x 83844 = 4192.2
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.05 avec un stoploss a 84006.9618
Avec un position size USD de 4192.2$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.05 x 162.9618 = 8.15
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.15$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.05 x 325.9237 = 16.3
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16.3$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.39 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.19 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.19 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.235 % | 120.88 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83844 | 84006.9618 | 83518.0763 | 2 | 83439 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 84006.9618 - 83844 = 162.9618
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 83844 - 83518.0763 = 325.9237
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 325.9237 / 162.9618 = 2
Array
(
)
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 83518.0763
[entry_price] => 83844
[stop_loss] => 84023.25798
[rr_ratio] => 1.82
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-09-29 07:15:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 83518.0763
[entry_price] => 83844
[stop_loss] => 84039.55416
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-09-29 07:15:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
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[take_profit] => 83518.0763
[entry_price] => 83844
[stop_loss] => 84055.85034
[rr_ratio] => 1.54
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-09-29 07:35:00+00
[result] => loss
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[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 83518.0763
[entry_price] => 83844
[stop_loss] => 84088.4427
[rr_ratio] => 1.33
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-09-29 07:35:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.027% | 0.1R | -0.389% | 2.0R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.066% | 0.3R | -0.584% | 3.0R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.153% | 0.8R | -0.584% | 3.0R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.153% | 0.8R | -0.809% | 4.2R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.176% | 6.1R | -0.809% | 4.2R | 1.5× | 144 |
computed 30 minutes ago
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