Long Trade on ETH

Previous Trade Next Trade

29 Sep 2026 at 03:11:42 hyperliquid

Long Trade on ETH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 0.27 ETH at 2703.4$ per unit. Take profit: 2777.8034 (2.75 %) & Stop Loss: 2673.6386 (1.1 %)

ETH LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Sep 2026 03:11 → 11:25 · 8 hours

Position

Entry 2703.4$

Qty 0.2688 ETH

Size 726.6874$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)

Risk Setup

TP 2777.8034 (+2.75%)

TP $ 20$

SL 2673.6386 (-1.1%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -1.10% / -8$ MAE -0.00% MFE +1.19% 1.1R expires 29 Sep 15:11

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 164124)

#21 / 87 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 03:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7431

Quality Score

0.540

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

77 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

1.23B $

volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 03:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#21 / 87 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

77 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

1.10 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#21 / 87 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

77 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

1.10 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.07×ATR
4h	clear	1.56×ATR
1d	clear	4.27×ATR

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	early	OK
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : +2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : +2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 28/09 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_medium (+1) 29/09 02:00 Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

28/09 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_medium (+1)

29/09 02:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4341

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	+2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	transition	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) +2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 77.6%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : broad_risk_on

Leadership : alts

% Positive (universe)

15m	47.1%
1h	94.3%
4h	95.7%
24h	41.4%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	60.0%	-0.02%
4h	84.3%	+2.29%
24h	38.6%	-0.71%

Dispersion : 0.221

Universe : 70 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 29/09 03:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.6071

Score SMA

0.5941

Rank

#35 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.6136

Rank Norm SMA

0.3973

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6816	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.04% · r3d: -0.07% · ema21_slope: 0.6256% · dist_ema21: 3.462%
Force Relative	25%	0.5352	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.20% · rs_3d: 0.65% · beta_24h: 0.976
Volume	20%	0.3098	rvol_20: 0.95× · zscore_50: -0.035 · trend: -19.99%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8237	ADX: 43.9 (trend) · Chop: 43.4 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.8329	ATR%: 3.501% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 03:00

Score brut

0.5404

Score SMA

0.5186

Rank

#21 / 87

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.7431

Rank Norm SMA

0.4207

Calculé le

29/09/2026 03:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5636	r1h: 1.140% · r4h: 1.832% · r1d: 2.18% · r3d: 0.81% · ema21_slope: 0.0016% · dist_ema21: 1.091%
Force Relative	25%	0.5514	rs_1h: 0.459% · rs_4h: 0.576% · rs_1d: 1.17% · rs_3d: 0.69% · beta_24h: 1.266
Volume	20%	0.2892	rvol_20: 0.74× · zscore_50: 0.052 · trend: -14.89%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5043	ADX: 15.1 (weak) · Chop: 53.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 0.733% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 00:00

Score brut

0.5234

Score SMA

0.5251

Rank

#28 / 88

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.6119

Rank Norm SMA

0.3188

Calculé le

29/09/2026 00:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4977	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.907% · r1d: 0.52% · r3d: -0.85% · ema21_slope: -0.0296% · dist_ema21: -0.618%
Force Relative	25%	0.5063	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.398% · rs_1d: 0.84% · rs_3d: 0.19% · beta_24h: 1.266
Volume	20%	0.4117	rvol_20: 1.39× · zscore_50: -0.179 · trend: 11.13%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4348	ADX: 14.1 (weak) · Chop: 60.8 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.274% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.101% (29.7614)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.592%	0.5R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+1.187%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+1.187%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	48
8h	+1.724%	1.6R	-0.474%	0.4R	3.6×	96

computed 22 minutes ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1.89

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	normal	bull_high	62%	noisy_chop 39%	early	—	—	0.91	bull_high	+12.96%	+0.17	27/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	compression	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 33%	early	—	—	0.84	bull_high	+1.23%	+0.01	28/09 20:00
1h	↔ neutral	range	range	strong	balanced	expansion_after_compression	bull_medium	59%	noisy_chop 43%	mid	—	near -0.1ATR	0.85	range_medium	+0.15%	+0.07	29/09 02:00
15m	↔ neutral	range	range	strong	fading	expansion	bull_low	47%	noisy_chop 45%	late	—	—	0.93	range_low	+0.63%	+0.04	29/09 02:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 166789	↑ up	bull_high	62%	early 13b 0.9ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.629	— —	0.95	above_value	-0.04 ATR	—	#92594	27/09 20:00 upd 28/09 20:16
4h 168715	↔ neutral	bull_high	57%	early 2b -0.5ATR	noisy_chop 33%	0.606	— —	1.39	value	-1.32 ATR	—	#93404	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 00:12
1h anchor 170110	↔ neutral	bull_medium	59%	mid 4b 1.4ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.520	— near -0.1ATR	0.74	value	+0.82 ATR	—	#94020	29/09 02:00 upd 29/09 03:09
15m 170032	↔ neutral	bull_low	47%	late 5b 3.2ATR	noisy_chop 45%	0.356	— —	1.47	above_value	-0.75 ATR	—	#93844	29/09 02:45 upd 29/09 03:00
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	13b	—	3.534×ATR	p9	+0.918×ATR	p48
4h	↓ down	early	2b	—	1.635×ATR	p0	-0.503×ATR	p41
1h	↑ up	mid	4b	—	2.732×ATR	p57	+1.428×ATR	p66
15m	↑ up	late	5b	—	5.563×ATR	p100	+3.218×ATR	p100

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.7697
reason: up_bo width=2.46×ATR dur=38b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(-0.10)
stop_price: 2673.63864684
tp_price: 2777.80338289
atr:
score: 0.86974154684415
expires_at: 2026-09-29T19:11:34.332165
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.86974154684415

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.2742
obi_top10 : -0.2742
micro_price : 2710.46944068
spread_pct : 0.000369
mid_price : 2710.465
bid_wall_price :
bid_wall_size :
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price :
ask_wall_size :
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : -0.2349
obi_top5_std : 0.0298
pressure_side : ask
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7071
aggregation_tick : 10
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
2698.75
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
2652.3
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
2675.525
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790532000
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790665200
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.4624
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
38
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.8697
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790661600
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
2698.75
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.7368
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.2465
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
10
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
9
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 18.86353158

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.7368

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.2465

Signaux confirmants (26)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	03:11	2703.40000000	0%
2	03:21	2703.40000000	0%
3	03:31	2703.40000000	0%
4	03:41	2713.10000000	+0.359%
5	03:51	2713.10000000	+0.359%
6	04:01	2713.10000000	+0.359%
7	04:15	2715.90000000	+0.462%
8	04:26	2715.90000000	+0.462%
9	04:36	2714.90000000	+0.425%
10	04:46	2714.90000000	+0.425%
11	04:55	2714.90000000	+0.425%
12	05:05	2705.80000000	+0.089%
13	05:15	2705.80000000	+0.089%
14	05:25	2705.80000000	+0.089%
15	05:34	2710.60000000	+0.266%
16	05:44	2710.60000000	+0.266%
17	05:53	2710.60000000	+0.266%
18	06:04	2710.60000000	+0.266%
19	06:16	2717.30000000	+0.514%
20	06:27	2717.30000000	+0.514%
21	06:37	2711.60000000	+0.303%
22	06:47	2711.60000000	+0.303%
23	06:57	2711.60000000	+0.303%
24	07:08	2716.90000000	+0.499%
25	07:18	2716.90000000	+0.499%
26	07:28	2716.90000000	+0.499%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↓ ask ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7071ms Confidence avant OB : 87% → 77%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.274

avg -0.235 ± 0.030

OBI Top 10 -0.274

Microstructure

Mid Price

2,710.4650

Micro Price

2,710.4694

Spread

0.0004%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
2703.4	2673.6386	2777.8034	2.5	2699.9

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 2703.4
Stop Loss: 2673.6386
Take Profit: 2777.8034

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 2673.6386 - 2703.4 = -29.7614
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 2703.4 - 2777.8034 = -74.4034
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -74.4034 / -29.7614 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
726.6874	100	0.2688	7.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -29.7614

Taille de position = 8 / -29.7614 = -0.27

Taille de position USD = -0.27 x 2703.4 = -729.92

Donc, tu peux acheter -0.27 avec un stoploss a 2673.6386

Avec un position size USD de -729.92$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -0.27 x -29.7614 = 8.04

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.04$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -0.27 x -74.4034 = 20.09

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.09$

Résumé

Taille de position -0.27
Taille de position USD -729.92
Perte potentielle 8.04
Gain potentiel 20.09
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.75 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
1.1 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-1.10

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.1689 %	106.18 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
2703.4	2673.6386	2777.8034	2.5	2699.9

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 2703.4
Stop Loss: 2673.6386
Take Profit: 2777.8034

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 2673.6386 - 2703.4 = -29.7614
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 2703.4 - 2777.8034 = -74.4034
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -74.4034 / -29.7614 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.101% (29.7614)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.592%	0.5R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	12
2h	+1.187%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	24
4h	+1.187%	1.1R	-0.000%	0.0R	—	48
8h	+1.724%	1.6R	-0.474%	0.4R	3.6×	96

computed 22 minutes ago

Commentaires

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