Short Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 5789.13 ARB at 0.209$ per unit. Take profit: 0.2067 (1.34 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2109 (0.67 %)
Short Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 5789.13 ARB at 0.209$ per unit. Take profit: 0.2067 (1.34 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2109 (0.67 %)
Position
Entry 0.2095$
Qty 5789.1309 ARB
Size 1212.6493$ (margin 100$) (leverage 12)
Risk Setup
TP 0.2067 (+1.34%)
TP $ 16.21$
SL 0.2109 (-0.67%)
SL $ 8.1$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2394
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 3.09×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 3.03×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.04×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.620588 15m : 0.745714 |
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : bull_high 5m_regime : bull_medium_confirmed |
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 29/09 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/09 05:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
| Strategic | bull | expansion | 0.90 | -2 |
| Operational | range | range | 0.25 | 0 |
| Tactical | range | transition | 0.25 | 0 |
| Micro | range | range | 0.25 |
| 15m | 59.1% |
| 1h | 56.1% |
| 4h | 83.3% |
| 24h | 77.3% |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 62.1% | +0.06% |
| 4h | 81.8% | +1.24% |
| 24h | 53.0% | +1.63% |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6190 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -10.77% · r3d: -10.92% · ema21_slope: 3.0132% · dist_ema21: 5.510% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3768 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -9.61% · rs_3d: -10.20% · beta_24h: 1.744 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3952 | rvol_20: 0.99× · zscore_50: 0.491 · trend: 13.31% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.9226 | ADX: 50.7 (trend) · Chop: 31.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 11.076% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5489 | r1h: 1.541% · r4h: 4.564% · r1d: 1.42% · r3d: -4.99% · ema21_slope: -0.2025% · dist_ema21: 2.318% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5697 | rs_1h: 1.084% · rs_4h: 3.586% · rs_1d: -0.50% · rs_3d: -5.27% · beta_24h: 3.009 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1635 | rvol_20: 0.45× · zscore_50: -0.734 · trend: -40.69% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6164 | ADX: 26.0 (trend) · Chop: 50.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.143% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5237 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 3.822% · r1d: -1.30% · r3d: -7.64% · ema21_slope: -0.3789% · dist_ema21: -4.306% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4314 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 2.733% · rs_1d: -2.52% · rs_3d: -7.47% · beta_24h: 3.878 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2735 | rvol_20: 0.92× · zscore_50: -0.494 · trend: -20.39% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6438 | ADX: 22.0 (weak) · Chop: 43.1 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.3648 | ATR%: 4.906% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.850% | 1.3R | -0.797% | 1.2R | 1.1× | 12 |
computed 17 minutes ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
69%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | 0.59 | bull_high | +12.96% | +0.88 | 27/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | — | 0.33 | bull_high | +2.28% | -0.78 | 29/09 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | — | near -0.8ATR | 0.27 | range_medium | +0.44% | -0.08 | 29/09 05:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | strong | fading | compression | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | — | near -0.4ATR | 0.67 | range_low | +0.71% | +0.42 | 29/09 06:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Regime | Tradability | Move | PAQ | Momentum | Near S/D | RVOL | Vol zone | POC dist | LVN | VP ref | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
166824 |
↑ up | bull_high |
69%
|
early 5b 0.4ATR | noisy_chop 40% | 0.620 |
— — |
0.99 | below_value | -3.59 ATR | — | #92602 |
27/09 20:00
upd 28/09 20:18
|
|
4h
170555 |
↔ neutral | bull_high |
51%
|
mid 11b -0.9ATR | noisy_chop 39% | 0.507 |
— — |
0.92 | below_value | -3.19 ATR | — | #94203 |
29/09 00:00
upd 29/09 04:14
|
|
1h
anchor
171461 |
↓ down | bear_high |
61%
|
mid 8b 1.1ATR | noisy_chop 43% | 0.370 |
— near -0.8ATR |
0.45 | below_value | -2.26 ATR | — | #94636 |
29/09 05:00
upd 29/09 06:10
|
|
15m
171548 |
↑ up | bull_high |
57%
|
late 21b 2.8ATR | noisy_chop 49% | 0.347 |
— near -0.4ATR |
0.54 | below_value | -2.26 ATR | — | #94636 |
29/09 06:00
upd 29/09 06:15
|
|
5m
|
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade | ||||||||||||
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 5b | — | 2.417×ATR | p0 | +0.383×ATR | p15 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 11b | — | 3.311×ATR | p50 | -0.88×ATR | p36 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 8b | — | 3.673×ATR | p79 | +1.139×ATR | p69 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 21b | — | 7.172×ATR | p100 | +2.82×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
83646.8
0.00602714
84151
0.620588
83399.5
0.00900998
84151
0.745714
83843.9
0.00373384
84157
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0.19185
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0.2915
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0.355
1
0.2244
0.4549
0.3086
0.0708
0.5411
0.364
0.0631
-0.0447
0.3333
1.1652
-0.2723
0.45
0.55
-1
9
1
0.5722
0.3969
3.5274
0.75
1.953
3.4267
-0.2723
0.322
0.2871
0.02
-0.2118
0.4087
0.5713
0.594
0.364
-7.4014
4.2353
1
1
0
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 04:05:00 | 0.19589 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 04:20:00 | 0.1999 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 04:50:00 | 0.19578 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 05:25:00 | 0.19929 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 07:00:00 | 0.1999 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 07:30:00 | 0.20505 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 08:05:00 | 0.20308 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 08:20:00 | 0.2067 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 08:45:00 | 0.20371 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 10:15:00 | 0.2098 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 12:00:00 | 0.21272 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-28 15:15:00 | 0.20016 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-28 17:15:00 | 0.20888 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-28 19:30:00 | 0.19955 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-28 22:00:00 | 0.197 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 00:30:00 | 0.20273 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 01:15:00 | 0.19185 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 04:15:00 | 0.1999 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 04:45:00 | 0.19578 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 10:15:00 | 0.2098 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 14:00:00 | 0.21693 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-25 22:00:00 | 0.23119 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-26 09:00:00 | 0.21703 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-26 16:00:00 | 0.23117 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-26 20:00:00 | 0.21781 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-27 08:00:00 | 0.23713 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-27 15:00:00 | 0.219 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-27 20:00:00 | 0.23482 | ↑ High |
| 2026-09-29 01:00:00 | 0.19185 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-09-29 10:00:00 | 0.20908 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2095 | 0.2109 | 0.2067 | 2 | 0.2142 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2109 - 0.2095 = 0.0014
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2095 - 0.2067 = 0.0028
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0028 / 0.0014 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1212.6493 | 100 | 5789.1309 | 12.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0014 = 5714.29
Taille de position USD = 5714.29 x 0.2095 = 1197.14
Donc, tu peux acheter 5714.29 avec un stoploss a 0.2109
Avec un position size USD de 1197.14$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 5714.29 x 0.0014 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 5714.29 x 0.0028 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.34 % | 16.21 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.67 % | 8.1 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.1 $ | -0.67 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.6874 % | 102.86 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2095 | 0.2109 | 0.2067 | 2 | 0.2142 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2109 - 0.2095 = 0.0014
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2095 - 0.2067 = 0.0028
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0028 / 0.0014 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.850% | 1.3R | -0.797% | 1.2R | 1.1× | 12 |
computed 17 minutes ago
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