Short Trade on MORPHO

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29 Sep 2026 at 12:21:13 hyperliquid

Short Trade on MORPHO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 99.67 MORPHO at 2.487$ per unit. Take profit: 2.2863 (8.07 %) & Stop Loss: 2.5673 (3.23 %)

MORPHO SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Sep 2026 12:21 → 00:20 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 2.487$

Qty 99.6708 MORPHO

Size 247.8812$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 2.2863 (+8.07%)

TP $ 20$

SL 2.5673 (-3.23%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.70% / -6.69$ MAE -2.90% MFE +1.81% 0.6R expires 30 Sep 00:21 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 165121)

#38 / 83 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 12:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4378

Quality Score

0.513

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

82 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

3.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 12:17

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#38 / 83 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

82 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.23 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#38 / 83 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

82 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.23 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	0.65×ATR
4h	clear	3.46×ATR
1d	clear	2.15×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↑ up	mid	OK
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/09 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/09 11:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/09 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

29/09 11:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4378

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 28.1%

Impulse : -0.01

Participation : alt_capitulation

Leadership : btc

% Positive (universe)

15m	68.8%
1h	67.2%
4h	14.1%
24h	51.6%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	73.4%	+0.18%
4h	29.7%	-2.10%
24h	59.4%	+0.07%

Dispersion : 0.187

Universe : 64 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 29/09 12:16 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 28/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5039

Score SMA

0.5683

Rank

#71 / 89

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2045

Rank Norm SMA

0.3150

Calculé le

28/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5985	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -6.93% · r3d: -6.86% · ema21_slope: 0.9697% · dist_ema21: 0.223%
Force Relative	25%	0.3657	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.77% · rs_3d: -6.14% · beta_24h: 1.065
Volume	20%	0.6096	rvol_20: 1.54× · zscore_50: 1.601 · trend: 52.52%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7402	ADX: 30.1 (trend) · Chop: 39.5 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 8.358% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.5126

Score SMA

0.5212

Rank

#38 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4378

Rank Norm SMA

0.3789

Calculé le

29/09/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2260	r1h: -3.713% · r4h: -4.033% · r1d: -2.99% · r3d: -10.42% · ema21_slope: 0.0266% · dist_ema21: -2.298%
Force Relative	25%	0.2173	rs_1h: -2.906% · rs_4h: -2.534% · rs_1d: -2.62% · rs_3d: -9.13% · beta_24h: 2.392
Volume	20%	0.8667	rvol_20: 3.94× · zscore_50: 1.855 · trend: 57.33%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6422	ADX: 20.1 (weak) · Chop: 41.3 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.970% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.4325

Score SMA

0.5444

Rank

#72 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1431

Rank Norm SMA

0.3897

Calculé le

29/09/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2499	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -4.033% · r1d: -2.99% · r3d: -10.42% · ema21_slope: -0.3799% · dist_ema21: -4.899%
Force Relative	25%	0.3371	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.534% · rs_1d: -2.62% · rs_3d: -9.13% · beta_24h: 3.227
Volume	20%	0.4492	rvol_20: 1.53× · zscore_50: 0.254 · trend: 1.13%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6272	ADX: 24.6 (weak) · Chop: 47.8 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.6127	ATR%: 4.162% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.229% (0.0803)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.391%	0.4R	-0.635%	0.2R	2.2×	12
2h	+1.488%	0.5R	-0.873%	0.3R	1.7×	24
4h	+1.805%	0.6R	-0.873%	0.3R	2.1×	48
8h	+1.805%	0.6R	-0.873%	0.3R	2.1×	96
12h ★	+1.805%	0.6R	-2.903%	0.9R	0.6×	144
24h	+1.805%	0.6R	-6.156%	1.9R	0.3×	288

computed 15 hours ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 2.42

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	weak	grind	expansion	bull_high	55%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	0.50	bull_high	+12.96%	+0.07	27/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 43%	mid	—	—	0.40	bull_high	+1.12%	-0.70	29/09 08:00
1h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	expansion_after_compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 39%	mid	—	—	0.36	bear_medium	-0.96%	-0.10	29/09 11:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	balanced	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	49%	noisy_chop 44%	mid	—	—	0.60	range_low	-0.77%	-0.22	29/09 11:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 167050	↑ up	bull_high	55%	early 12b 0.0ATR	noisy_chop 37%	0.547	— —	1.54	below_value	-4.45 ATR	—	#92657	27/09 20:00 upd 28/09 20:28
4h 174140	↓ down	bear_high	55%	mid 3b -1.2ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.410	— —	1.53	below_value	-5.18 ATR	—	#95794	29/09 08:00 upd 29/09 12:18
1h anchor 174139	↔ neutral	bear_high	58%	mid 3b -1.2ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.586	— —	3.94	below_value	-5.18 ATR	—	#95794	29/09 11:00 upd 29/09 12:18
15m 173976	↓ down	bear_high_confirmed	49%	mid 5b -2.1ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.536	— —	0.55	below_value	-3.60 ATR	—	#95626	29/09 11:45 upd 29/09 12:03
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	12b	—	2.372×ATR	p5	+0.025×ATR	p2
4h	↑ up	mid	3b	—	0.657×ATR	p0	-1.206×ATR	p68
1h	↓ down	mid	3b	—	2.917×ATR	p59	-1.246×ATR	p63
15m	↓ down	mid	5b	—	3.999×ATR	p72	-2.067×ATR	p76

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.815
reason: down_bo width=2.65×ATR dur=32b phase=fresh
stop_price: 2.56726427
tp_price: 2.28633933
atr:
score: 0.81495182286282
expires_at: 2026-09-30T04:21:05.649533
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.81495182286282

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.0089
obi_top10 : 0.3247
micro_price : 2.49519852
spread_pct : 0.076149
mid_price : 2.49605
bid_wall_price : 2.44
bid_wall_size : 41258
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 2.51
ask_wall_size : 13705.8
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.0602
obi_top5_std : 0.0398
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 6962
aggregation_tick : 0.01
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
2.6243
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
2.5009
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
2.5626
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790586000
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790697600
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.6456
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
32
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.815
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790694000
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
2.5009
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.7188
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.298
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
2
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
8
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.04664269

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.7188

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.298

Signaux confirmants (20)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	12:21	2.48700000	0%
2	12:30	2.48700000	0%
3	12:40	2.49760000	+0.426%
4	12:50	2.49760000	+0.426%
5	13:00	2.49760000	+0.426%
6	13:11	2.47720000	-0.394%
7	13:21	2.47720000	-0.394%
8	13:31	2.47720000	-0.394%
9	13:41	2.47360000	-0.539%
10	13:51	2.47360000	-0.539%
11	14:02	2.47360000	-0.539%
12	14:14	2.47480000	-0.491%
13	14:25	2.47480000	-0.491%
14	14:35	2.47480000	-0.491%
15	14:44	2.49800000	+0.442%
16	14:54	2.49800000	+0.442%
17	15:03	2.49800000	+0.442%
18	15:42	2.47100000	-0.643%
19	15:51	2.47100000	-0.643%
20	16:00	2.47100000	-0.643%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6962ms Confidence avant OB : 81% → 82%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.009

avg 0.060 ± 0.040

OBI Top 10 0.325

Microstructure

Mid Price

2.4961

Micro Price

2.4952

Spread

0.0761%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

2.4400

Size

41,258.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

2.5100

Size

13,705.80

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
2.487	2.5673	2.2863	2.5	2.5309

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 2.487
Stop Loss: 2.5673
Take Profit: 2.2863

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 2.5673 - 2.487 = 0.0803
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 2.487 - 2.2863 = 0.2007
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2007 / 0.0803 = 2.4994

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
247.8812	100	99.6708	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.0803

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0803 = 99.63

Taille de position USD = 99.63 x 2.487 = 247.78

Donc, tu peux acheter 99.63 avec un stoploss a 2.5673

Avec un position size USD de 247.78$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 99.63 x 0.0803 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 99.63 x 0.2007 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

Taille de position 99.63
Taille de position USD 247.78
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4994

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
8.07 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
3.23 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-6.69 $	-2.70

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.9031 %	89.91 %	21

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
2.487	2.5673	2.2863	2.5	2.5309

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 2.487
Stop Loss: 2.5673
Take Profit: 2.2863

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 2.5673 - 2.487 = 0.0803
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 2.487 - 2.2863 = 0.2007
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2007 / 0.0803 = 2.4994

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.229% (0.0803)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.391%	0.4R	-0.635%	0.2R	2.2×	12
2h	+1.488%	0.5R	-0.873%	0.3R	1.7×	24
4h	+1.805%	0.6R	-0.873%	0.3R	2.1×	48
8h	+1.805%	0.6R	-0.873%	0.3R	2.1×	96
12h ★	+1.805%	0.6R	-2.903%	0.9R	0.6×	144
24h	+1.805%	0.6R	-6.156%	1.9R	0.3×	288

computed 15 hours ago

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