Short Trade on LIT

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29 Sep 2026 at 21:15:09 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 20.61 LIT at 3.883$ per unit. Take profit: 3.786 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 4.2713 (10 %)

LIT SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 29 Sep 2026 21:15 → 22:50 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 3.8831$

Qty 20.6093 LIT

Size 80.0281$ (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 3.786 (+2.5%)

TP $ 2$

SL 4.2713 (-10%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.25

Status win PnL +2.50% / +2$ MAE -3.01% MFE +6.00% 0.6R expires 30 Sep 03:15

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 166214)

#70 / 84 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 29/09/2026 21:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3491

Quality Score

0.439

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

98 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

127.3M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
29/09 21:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#70 / 84 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

98 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

10.00 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#70 / 84 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

98 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

10.00 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	—
4h	clear	0.88×ATR
1d	clear	3.43×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 29/09 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/09 20:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2)

29/09 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

29/09 20:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4413

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	compression	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 28.0%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : btc_led_risk_on

Leadership : btc

% Positive (universe)

15m	42.9%
1h	57.1%
4h	22.2%
24h	50.8%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	49.2%	-0.04%
4h	25.4%	-0.67%
24h	44.4%	+0.07%

Dispersion : 0.135

Universe : 63 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 29/09 21:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4075

Score SMA

0.5207

Rank

#80 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0366

Rank Norm SMA

0.2242

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3850	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -11.51% · r3d: -18.78% · ema21_slope: 0.6205% · dist_ema21: -13.228%
Force Relative	25%	0.1446	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -11.70% · rs_3d: -17.84% · beta_24h: 0.389
Volume	20%	0.6717	rvol_20: 2.00× · zscore_50: 1.844 · trend: 31.45%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8100	ADX: 43.8 (trend) · Chop: 45.0 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.102% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 21:00

Score brut

0.4385

Score SMA

0.5011

Rank

#70 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3491

Rank Norm SMA

0.3436

Calculé le

29/09/2026 21:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.1686	r1h: -0.758% · r4h: -13.406% · r1d: -10.97% · r3d: -18.24% · ema21_slope: -0.1165% · dist_ema21: -10.548%
Force Relative	25%	0.1039	rs_1h: -0.508% · rs_4h: -13.195% · rs_1d: -11.29% · rs_3d: -17.20% · beta_24h: 1.319
Volume	20%	0.9256	rvol_20: 3.94× · zscore_50: 1.884 · trend: 391.00%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6883	ADX: 22.6 (weak) · Chop: 5.9 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.6506	ATR%: 4.048% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3266

Score SMA

0.4384

Rank

#82 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0676

Rank Norm SMA

0.1805

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.0280	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -11.879% · r1d: -11.51% · r3d: -18.78% · ema21_slope: -0.5425% · dist_ema21: -12.886%
Force Relative	25%	0.0035	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -11.945% · rs_1d: -11.70% · rs_3d: -17.84% · beta_24h: 2.059
Volume	20%	1.0000	rvol_20: 8.33× · zscore_50: 5.833 · trend: 189.83%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7454	ADX: 29.4 (trend) · Chop: 30.3 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0550	ATR%: 5.835% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -9.997% (0.3882)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+2.400%	0.2R	-3.013%	0.3R	0.8×	12
2h	+3.899%	0.4R	-3.013%	0.3R	1.3×	24
4h	+6.003%	0.6R	-3.013%	0.3R	2.0×	48
6h ★	+6.003%	0.6R	-3.013%	0.3R	2.0×	72
8h	+6.003%	0.6R	-3.013%	0.3R	2.0×	96
12h	+6.003%	0.6R	-3.747%	0.4R	1.6×	144

computed 5 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 2.07

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_high	52%	noisy_chop 35%	mid	—	—	—	bull_high	+12.90%	-0.97	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	fading	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	40%	noisy_chop 40%	late	—	—	0.33	bull_high	+1.75%	-0.96	29/09 16:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	39%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	—	0.29	range_medium	-0.45%	-0.80	29/09 20:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	46%	noisy_chop 45%	late	—	—	0.31	range_low	-0.19%	-0.85	29/09 20:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177678	↑ up	bull_high	52%	mid 5b -1.2ATR	noisy_chop 35%	0.588	— —	2.00	below_value	-4.17 ATR	inside	#97306	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:30
4h 177603	↔ neutral	bear_high_confirmed	40%	late 31b -2.7ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.419	— —	8.33	below_value	-4.17 ATR	inside	#97306	29/09 16:00 upd 29/09 20:26
1h anchor 178005	↓ down	bear_high_confirmed	39%	late 1b -2.7ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.632	— —	3.94	below_value	-2.72 ATR	inside	#97558	29/09 20:00 upd 29/09 21:13
15m 177920	↓ down	bear_high_confirmed	46%	late 3b -1.5ATR	noisy_chop 45%	0.390	— —	0.76	below_value	-4.17 ATR	—	#97306	29/09 20:45 upd 29/09 21:04
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	5b	—	3.47×ATR	p44	-1.219×ATR	p67
4h	↓ down	late	31b	—	6.891×ATR	p97	-2.707×ATR	p97
1h	↓ down	late	1b	—	4.629×ATR	p92	-2.674×ATR	p99
15m	↓ down	late	3b	—	0.63×ATR	p0	-1.546×ATR	p83

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 4.27127349
tp_price: 3.7860225
atr: 0.1552694
expires_at: 2026-09-30T07:15:09+00:00

Details

rank: 82
total: 84
score: 0.1958
delta_2h: -0.2379
extension_atr: -2.77
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.3657
confidence: 0.976

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.8831	4.2713	3.786	0.25	3.9292

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.8831
Stop Loss: 4.2713
Take Profit: 3.786

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.2713 - 3.8831 = 0.3882
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.8831 - 3.786 = 0.0971
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0971 / 0.3882 = 0.2501

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
80.0281	80.0281	20.6093	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.3882

Taille de position = 8 / 0.3882 = 20.61

Taille de position USD = 20.61 x 3.8831 = 80.03

Donc, tu peux acheter 20.61 avec un stoploss a 4.2713

Avec un position size USD de 80.03$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 20.61 x 0.3882 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 20.61 x 0.0971 = 2

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2$

Résumé

Taille de position 20.61
Taille de position USD 80.03
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 2
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.2501

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	2 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
10 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
2 $	2.50

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.0131 %	30.14 %	4

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.8831	4.2713	3.786	0.25	3.9292

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.8831
Stop Loss: 4.2713
Take Profit: 3.786

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.2713 - 3.8831 = 0.3882
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.8831 - 3.786 = 0.0971
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0971 / 0.3882 = 0.2501

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -9.997% (0.3882)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+2.400%	0.2R	-3.013%	0.3R	0.8×	12
2h	+3.899%	0.4R	-3.013%	0.3R	1.3×	24
4h	+6.003%	0.6R	-3.013%	0.3R	2.0×	48
6h ★	+6.003%	0.6R	-3.013%	0.3R	2.0×	72
8h	+6.003%	0.6R	-3.013%	0.3R	2.0×	96
12h	+6.003%	0.6R	-3.747%	0.4R	1.6×	144

computed 5 days ago

Commentaires

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