Long Trade on BCH

Previous Trade Next Trade

30 Sep 2026 at 09:10:54 hyperliquid

Long Trade on BCH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1.73 BCH at 314.4$ per unit. Take profit: 325.9651 (3.68 %) & Stop Loss: 309.774 (1.47 %)

BCH LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 09:10 → 09:40 · 29 minutes

Position

Entry 314.4$

Qty 1.7293 BCH

Size 543.7064$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)

Risk Setup

TP 325.9651 (+3.68%)

TP $ 20$

SL 309.774 (-1.47%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -1.47% / -8$ MAE -3.60% MFE +0.81% 0.6R expires 30 Sep 21:10

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167376)

#13 / 79 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 09:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5470

Quality Score

0.641

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

2.9M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 09:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#13 / 79 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+7 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

1.47 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD TRADE

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#13 / 79 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+7 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

1.47 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	0.55×ATR
4h	clear	4.42×ATR
1d	clear	1.76×ATR

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	late	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : +2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : +2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 30/09 04:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 30/09 08:00 Score : +5 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

30/09 04:00

Tactical (1H) : range_high (0)

30/09 08:00

Score : +5 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4461

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	+2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	bull	exhaustion	0.90

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) +2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 88.5%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : broad_risk_on

Leadership : alts

% Positive (universe)

15m	50.9%
1h	92.7%
4h	94.6%
24h	45.5%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	41.8%	+0.01%
4h	72.7%	+2.21%
24h	47.3%	-0.11%

Dispersion : 0.198

Universe : 55 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 09:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4959

Score SMA

0.6226

Rank

#66 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2073

Rank Norm SMA

0.5258

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6684	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.82% · r3d: -8.46% · ema21_slope: 2.0663% · dist_ema21: 6.558%
Force Relative	25%	0.4538	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.02% · rs_3d: -7.52% · beta_24h: 1.235
Volume	20%	0.2724	rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -0.244 · trend: 16.50%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8494	ADX: 41.9 (trend) · Chop: 21.0 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 6.945% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 09:00

Score brut

0.6407

Score SMA

0.5105

Rank

#13 / 79

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.5470

Rank Norm SMA

0.3959

Calculé le

30/09/2026 09:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5471	r1h: 1.260% · r4h: 2.024% · r1d: 0.81% · r3d: -6.74% · ema21_slope: 0.0126% · dist_ema21: 1.807%
Force Relative	25%	0.4047	rs_1h: -0.390% · rs_4h: -0.673% · rs_1d: -0.32% · rs_3d: -7.33% · beta_24h: 0.985
Volume	20%	0.9420	rvol_20: 4.33× · zscore_50: 2.973 · trend: 57.88%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5798	ADX: 21.6 (weak) · Chop: 50.6 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 0.970% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.4460

Score SMA

0.5683

Rank

#60 / 81

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2856

Rank Norm SMA

0.5128

Calculé le

30/09/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4817	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.912% · r1d: -0.76% · r3d: -8.29% · ema21_slope: -0.3356% · dist_ema21: -1.156%
Force Relative	25%	0.3886	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.167% · rs_1d: -0.25% · rs_3d: -7.11% · beta_24h: 2.397
Volume	20%	0.2573	rvol_20: 1.02× · zscore_50: -0.396 · trend: -68.05%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3522	ADX: 25.2 (trend) · Chop: 82.4 (range)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.528% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.471% (4.6260)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.814%	0.6R	-2.099%	1.4R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	48
8h	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	96
12h ★	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	143
24h	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	288

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.5

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	67%	noisy_chop 44%	early	—	—	0.65	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.87	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	weak	grind	compression	bull_high	54%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	—	0.49	bull_high	+1.97%	-0.53	30/09 04:00
1h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	fading	normal	range_high	37%	noisy_chop 41%	late	—	—	0.37	bull_medium_confirmed	+1.82%	-0.01	30/09 08:00
15m	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_medium_confirmed	63%	noisy_chop 50%	late	—	near -1.4ATR	0.81	bull_low_confirmed	+2.06%	-0.02	30/09 08:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177473	↑ up	bull_high	67%	early 6b 0.7ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.798	— —	0.29	below_value	-9.75 ATR	—	#97243	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:19
4h 182519	↔ neutral	bull_high	54%	late 18b -0.5ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.620	— —	1.02	below_value	-9.92 ATR	—	#99465	30/09 04:00 upd 30/09 08:13
1h anchor 182985	↔ neutral	range_high	37%	late 6b 2.0ATR	noisy_chop 41%	0.400	— —	4.33	below_value	-7.82 ATR	—	#99709	30/09 08:00 upd 30/09 09:09
15m 182910	↑ up	bull_medium_confirmed	63%	late 2b 2.9ATR	noisy_chop 50%	0.611	— near -1.4ATR	4.40	below_value	-9.92 ATR	—	#99465	30/09 08:45 upd 30/09 09:01
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	6b	—	2.748×ATR	p6	+0.741×ATR	p43
4h	↓ down	late	18b	—	4.63×ATR	p82	-0.539×ATR	p27
1h	↑ up	late	6b	—	3.278×ATR	p71	+2.036×ATR	p87
15m	↑ up	late	2b	—	3.749×ATR	p78	+2.939×ATR	p100

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.928
reason: up_bo width=2.97×ATR dur=54b phase=fresh
stop_price: 309.77397427
tp_price: 325.96506432
atr:
score: 0.92795829325388
expires_at: 2026-10-01T01:10:46.874275
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.92795829325388

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.0139
obi_top10 : -0.016
micro_price : 314.76704225
spread_pct : 0.003177
mid_price : 314.765
bid_wall_price : 314
bid_wall_size : 2605.456
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 315
ask_wall_size : 3069.778
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : -0.0123
obi_top5_std : 0.0051
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7062
aggregation_tick : 1
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
314.38
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
305.75
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
310.065
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790582400
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790773200
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.9654
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
54
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.928
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790769600
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
314.38
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.8519
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.0069
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
5
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
11
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 2.91025729

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.8519

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.0069

Signaux confirmants (3)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	09:10	314.40000000	0%
2	09:22	314.40000000	0%
3	09:33	314.40000000	0%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7062ms Confidence avant OB : 93% → 93%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.014

avg -0.012 ± 0.005

OBI Top 10 -0.016

Microstructure

Mid Price

314.7650

Micro Price

314.7670

Spread

0.0032%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

314.0000

Size

2,605.46

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

315.0000

Size

3,069.78

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
314.4	309.774	325.9651	2.5	277.77

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 314.4
Stop Loss: 309.774
Take Profit: 325.9651

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 309.774 - 314.4 = -4.626
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 314.4 - 325.9651 = -11.5651
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -11.5651 / -4.626 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
543.7064	100	1.7293	5.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -4.626

Taille de position = 8 / -4.626 = -1.73

Taille de position USD = -1.73 x 314.4 = -543.91

Donc, tu peux acheter -1.73 avec un stoploss a 309.774

Avec un position size USD de -543.91$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -1.73 x -4.626 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -1.73 x -11.5651 = 20.01

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$

Résumé

Taille de position -1.73
Taille de position USD -543.91
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20.01
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
3.68 %	20 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
1.47 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-1.47

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.0992 %	142.67 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
314.4	309.774	325.9651	2.5	277.77

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 314.4
Stop Loss: 309.774
Take Profit: 325.9651

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 309.774 - 314.4 = -4.626
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 314.4 - 325.9651 = -11.5651
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -11.5651 / -4.626 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 325.9651
            [entry_price] => 314.4
            [stop_loss] => 309.3114
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 13:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 325.9651
            [entry_price] => 314.4
            [stop_loss] => 308.8488
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 13:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 325.9651
            [entry_price] => 314.4
            [stop_loss] => 308.3862
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 13:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 325.9651
            [entry_price] => 314.4
            [stop_loss] => 307.461
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 14:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.471% (4.6260)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.814%	0.6R	-2.099%	1.4R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	48
8h	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	96
12h ★	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	143
24h	+0.814%	0.6R	-3.601%	2.5R	0.2×	288

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.