Long Trade on JUP

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30 Sep 2026 at 09:13:16 hyperliquid

Long Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 703.08 JUP at 0.339$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3675 (8.38 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3277 (3.36 %)

JUP LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 09:13 → 10:20 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 0.3391$

Qty 703.0779 JUP

Size 238.3856$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.3675 (+8.38%)

TP $ 19.97$

SL 0.3277 (-3.36%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR 2.49

Status loss PnL -3.36% / -8.01$ MAE -5.05% MFE +0.41% 0.1R expires 30 Sep 21:13

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167392)

#44 / 79 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 09:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3791

Quality Score

0.545

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

8.6M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 09:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#44 / 79 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.36 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#44 / 79 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

93 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+8 OK

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.36 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-1.87×ATR
4h	clear	2.68×ATR
1d	clear	—

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	early	OK
1d	↑ up	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : +2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : +2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 30/09 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 30/09 08:00 Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

30/09 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

30/09 08:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4461

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	+2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	bull	exhaustion	0.90

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) +2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 88.5%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : broad_risk_on

Leadership : alts

% Positive (universe)

15m	50.9%
1h	92.7%
4h	94.6%
24h	45.5%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	41.8%	+0.01%
4h	72.7%	+2.21%
24h	47.3%	-0.11%

Dispersion : 0.198

Universe : 55 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 09:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.6643

Score SMA

0.7152

Rank

#22 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.7439

Rank Norm SMA

0.7848

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.8018	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.52% · r3d: -2.85% · ema21_slope: 2.3420% · dist_ema21: 13.448%
Force Relative	25%	0.6882	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.32% · rs_3d: -1.91% · beta_24h: 1.604
Volume	20%	0.5997	rvol_20: 1.40× · zscore_50: 0.840 · trend: 118.93%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8783	ADX: 45.4 (trend) · Chop: 26.9 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 8.683% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 09:00

Score brut

0.5446

Score SMA

0.5716

Rank

#44 / 79

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3791

Rank Norm SMA

0.5848

Calculé le

30/09/2026 09:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6496	r1h: 1.512% · r4h: 3.253% · r1d: 2.76% · r3d: -0.07% · ema21_slope: 0.0143% · dist_ema21: 2.489%
Force Relative	25%	0.5208	rs_1h: -0.138% · rs_4h: 0.556% · rs_1d: 1.63% · rs_3d: -0.65% · beta_24h: 1.484
Volume	20%	0.2988	rvol_20: 1.22× · zscore_50: -0.253 · trend: -56.67%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3983	ADX: 8.7 (weak) · Chop: 59.7 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.909% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.4936

Score SMA

0.6243

Rank

#44 / 81

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3979

Rank Norm SMA

0.6749

Calculé le

30/09/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6353	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 2.446% · r1d: -0.07% · r3d: -2.38% · ema21_slope: -0.1369% · dist_ema21: 0.641%
Force Relative	25%	0.6129	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.702% · rs_1d: 0.44% · rs_3d: -1.19% · beta_24h: 2.354
Volume	20%	0.1550	rvol_20: 0.17× · zscore_50: -0.682 · trend: -49.61%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4414	ADX: 18.6 (weak) · Chop: 64.6 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.5253	ATR%: 4.424% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.362% (0.0114)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.407%	0.1R	-3.129%	0.9R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.407%	0.1R	-4.238%	1.3R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.407%	0.1R	-5.052%	1.5R	0.1×	48
8h	+0.407%	0.1R	-5.052%	1.5R	0.1×	96
12h ★	+0.407%	0.1R	-5.052%	1.5R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.407%	0.1R	-6.393%	1.9R	0.1×	288

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.16

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high_confirmed	69%	noisy_chop 42%	mid	—	—	0.59	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.99	28/09 20:00
4h	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	61%	noisy_chop 35%	early	—	—	0.47	bull_high	+1.97%	-0.23	30/09 04:00
1h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	compression	bull_high	57%	noisy_chop 42%	late	—	near -1.9ATR	0.49	bull_medium_confirmed	+1.82%	-0.02	30/09 08:00
15m	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_high_confirmed	61%	noisy_chop 43%	late	—	near 0.0ATR	0.60	bull_low_confirmed	+2.06%	+0.15	30/09 08:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177547	↑ up	bull_high_confirmed	69%	mid 13b 1.3ATR	noisy_chop 42%	0.693	— —	1.40	above_value	+0.33 ATR	—	#97261	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:23
4h 182551	↑ up	bull_high	61%	early 15b 0.1ATR	noisy_chop 35%	0.710	— —	0.17	above_value	+1.00 ATR	—	#99481	30/09 04:00 upd 30/09 08:15
1h anchor 183002	↔ neutral	bull_high	57%	late 5b 1.5ATR	noisy_chop 42%	0.589	— near -1.9ATR	1.22	above_value	+1.77 ATR	—	#99725	30/09 08:00 upd 30/09 09:10
15m 182926	↑ up	bull_high_confirmed	61%	late 1b 2.2ATR	noisy_chop 43%	0.724	— near 0.0ATR	1.91	above_value	+1.00 ATR	—	#99481	30/09 08:45 upd 30/09 09:01
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	mid	13b	—	4.267×ATR	p52	+1.257×ATR	p70
4h	↓ down	early	15b	—	2.856×ATR	p34	+0.136×ATR	p11
1h	↑ up	late	5b	—	2.956×ATR	p77	+1.467×ATR	p82
15m	↓ down	late	1b	—	0.567×ATR	p3	+2.19×ATR	p95

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.9256
reason: up_bo width=2.96×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.32768146
tp_price: 0.36750636
atr:
score: 0.92558590904044
expires_at: 2026-10-01T01:13:08.519143
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.92558590904044

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.2369
obi_top10 : 0.184
micro_price : 0.34060411
spread_pct : 0.088106
mid_price : 0.34065
bid_wall_price : 0.336
bid_wall_size : 333546
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price :
ask_wall_size :
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : 0.1318
obi_top5_std : 0.0926
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 7075
aggregation_tick : 0.001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.33746
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.31914
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.3283
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790607600
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790773200
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.9618
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
47
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.9256
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790769600
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.33746
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.9574
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.2587
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
7
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
9
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 0.00618543

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.9574

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.2587

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	09:13	0.33906000	-0.012%
2	09:24	0.33906000	-0.012%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7075ms Confidence avant OB : 93% → 93%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.237

avg 0.132 ± 0.093

OBI Top 10 0.184

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.3407

Micro Price

0.3406

Spread

0.0881%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.3360

Size

333,546.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.3391	0.3277	0.3675	2.49	0.3562

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.3391
Stop Loss: 0.3277
Take Profit: 0.3675

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.3277 - 0.3391 = -0.0114
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.3391 - 0.3675 = -0.0284
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0284 / -0.0114 = 2.4912

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
238.3856	100	703.0779	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -0.0114

Taille de position = 8 / -0.0114 = -701.75

Taille de position USD = -701.75 x 0.3391 = -237.96

Donc, tu peux acheter -701.75 avec un stoploss a 0.3277

Avec un position size USD de -237.96$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -701.75 x -0.0114 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -701.75 x -0.0284 = 19.93

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.93$

Résumé

Taille de position -701.75
Taille de position USD -237.96
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 19.93
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4912

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
8.38 %	19.97 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
3.36 %	8.02 $

PNL	PNL %
-8.01 $	-3.36

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.8632 %	114.91 %	4

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.3391	0.3277	0.3675	2.49	0.3562

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.3391
Stop Loss: 0.3277
Take Profit: 0.3675

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.3277 - 0.3391 = -0.0114
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.3391 - 0.3675 = -0.0284
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0284 / -0.0114 = 2.4912

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.3675
            [entry_price] => 0.3391
            [stop_loss] => 0.32656
            [rr_ratio] => 2.26
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 14:20:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.3675
            [entry_price] => 0.3391
            [stop_loss] => 0.32542
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 14:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.3675
            [entry_price] => 0.3391
            [stop_loss] => 0.32428
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 15:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.3675
            [entry_price] => 0.3391
            [stop_loss] => 0.322
            [rr_ratio] => 1.66
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-09-30 15:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.362% (0.0114)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.407%	0.1R	-3.129%	0.9R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.407%	0.1R	-4.238%	1.3R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.407%	0.1R	-5.052%	1.5R	0.1×	48
8h	+0.407%	0.1R	-5.052%	1.5R	0.1×	96
12h ★	+0.407%	0.1R	-5.052%	1.5R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.407%	0.1R	-6.393%	1.9R	0.1×	288

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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