Short Trade on XPL

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30 Sep 2026 at 12:15:10 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1354 XPL at 0.0961$ per unit. Take profit: 0.09372 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.102 (6.12 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 12:15 → 14:00 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 0.09612$

Qty 1353.9999 XPL

Size 130.1492$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.09372 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.25$

SL 0.102 (-6.12%)

SL $ 7.96$

RR 0.41

Status win PnL +2.50% / +3.25$ MAE -0.50% MFE +5.92% 1.0R expires 30 Sep 18:15

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167655)

#74 / 76 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 12:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2163

Quality Score

0.380

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

28.1M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 12:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#74 / 76 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

6.12 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#74 / 76 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

6.12 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-1.23×ATR
4h	clear	1.24×ATR
1d	clear	0.51×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 30/09 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/09 10:00 Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

30/09 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 10:00

Score : -4 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4473

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 28.1%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : btc_led_risk_on

Leadership : btc

% Positive (universe)

15m	64.9%
1h	64.9%
4h	24.6%
24h	56.1%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	63.2%	+0.10%
4h	21.1%	-1.16%
24h	36.8%	+0.44%

Dispersion : 0.197

Universe : 57 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 12:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4974

Score SMA

0.6233

Rank

#65 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2195

Rank Norm SMA

0.4935

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6287	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.58% · r3d: -14.17% · ema21_slope: 1.0559% · dist_ema21: -0.266%
Force Relative	25%	0.3953	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.77% · rs_3d: -13.23% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume	20%	0.5490	rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: 0.721 · trend: 100.05%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6679	ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 41.2 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.192% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.3801

Score SMA

0.5209

Rank

#74 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2163

Rank Norm SMA

0.3742

Calculé le

30/09/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3206	r1h: 0.654% · r4h: -2.933% · r1d: -3.80% · r3d: -8.95% · ema21_slope: -0.0553% · dist_ema21: -1.599%
Force Relative	25%	0.3084	rs_1h: 0.258% · rs_4h: -3.223% · rs_1d: -5.10% · rs_3d: -8.58% · beta_24h: 1.472
Volume	20%	0.4050	rvol_20: 1.16× · zscore_50: -0.065 · trend: 27.75%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5089	ADX: 15.7 (weak) · Chop: 53.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.599% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.3149

Score SMA

0.4962

Rank

#76 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0250

Rank Norm SMA

0.2975

Calculé le

30/09/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2824	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.933% · r1d: -3.80% · r3d: -8.95% · ema21_slope: -0.4675% · dist_ema21: -4.616%
Force Relative	25%	0.3585	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.223% · rs_1d: -5.10% · rs_3d: -8.58% · beta_24h: 1.928
Volume	20%	0.3285	rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: -0.092 · trend: -24.69%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4025	ADX: 23.9 (weak) · Chop: 74.9 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.2266	ATR%: 5.320% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -6.117% (0.0059)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.969%	0.2R	-0.497%	0.1R	2.0×	12
2h	+3.257%	0.5R	-0.497%	0.1R	6.6×	24
4h	+5.916%	1.0R	-0.497%	0.1R	11.9×	48
6h ★	+5.916%	1.0R	-0.497%	0.1R	11.9×	72
8h	+5.916%	1.0R	-0.497%	0.1R	11.9×	96
12h	+5.916%	1.0R	-1.647%	0.3R	3.6×	144

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 6.39

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 41%	early	—	near -0.2ATR	0.54	bull_high	+12.90%	+0.05	28/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	49%	noisy_chop 44%	mid	—	—	0.48	bull_high	+1.97%	-0.78	30/09 04:00
1h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	expansion	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 39%	mid	near -1.2ATR	—	0.44	range_medium	+0.03%	-0.41	30/09 10:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	strong	balanced	volatile_reversal	bear_high	50%	noisy_chop 39%	early	near -0.4ATR	—	0.67	range_medium	+0.52%	-0.23	30/09 11:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177653	↔ neutral	bull_high	60%	early 4b 0.0ATR	noisy_chop 41%	0.674	— near -0.2ATR	1.13	below_value	-6.68 ATR	—	#97294	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:29
4h 182644	↔ neutral	bull_high	49%	mid 24b -0.5ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.541	— —	0.70	below_value	-6.66 ATR	—	#99514	30/09 04:00 upd 30/09 08:20
1h anchor 183825	↔ neutral	bear_high	55%	mid 1b -1.0ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.552	near -1.2ATR —	2.51	below_value	-6.61 ATR	—	#100073	30/09 10:00 upd 30/09 11:11
15m 184140	↓ down	bear_high	50%	early 5b -0.5ATR	noisy_chop 39%	0.407	near -0.4ATR —	0.51	below_value	-6.61 ATR	—	#100073	30/09 11:45 upd 30/09 12:04
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	4b	—	2.562×ATR	p8	-0.02×ATR	p2
4h	↓ down	mid	24b	—	4.932×ATR	p79	-0.52×ATR	p37
1h	↓ down	mid	1b	—	2.108×ATR	p33	-1×ATR	p63
15m	↑ up	early	5b	—	2.215×ATR	p7	-0.531×ATR	p44

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.10203042
tp_price: 0.09371895
atr: 0.00236337
expires_at: 2026-09-30T22:15:10+00:00

Details

rank: 77
total: 78
score: 0.2675
delta_2h: -0.1511
extension_atr: -0.34
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.2113
confidence: 0.987

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	12:15	0.09612200	+0.002%
2	13:15	0.09600000	-0.125%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09612	0.102	0.09372	0.41	0.08018

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09612
Stop Loss: 0.102
Take Profit: 0.09372

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.102 - 0.09612 = 0.00588
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09612 - 0.09372 = 0.0024
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0024 / 0.00588 = 0.4082

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
130.1492	100	1353.9999	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00588

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00588 = 1360.54

Taille de position USD = 1360.54 x 0.09612 = 130.78

Donc, tu peux acheter 1360.54 avec un stoploss a 0.102

Avec un position size USD de 130.78$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1360.54 x 0.00588 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1360.54 x 0.0024 = 3.27

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.27$

Résumé

Taille de position 1360.54
Taille de position USD 130.78
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.27
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4082

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	3.25 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
6.12 %	7.96 $

PNL	PNL %
3.25 $	2.50

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-0.4973 %	8.13 %	9

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09612	0.102	0.09372	0.41	0.08018

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09612
Stop Loss: 0.102
Take Profit: 0.09372

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.102 - 0.09612 = 0.00588
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09612 - 0.09372 = 0.0024
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0024 / 0.00588 = 0.4082

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -6.117% (0.0059)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.969%	0.2R	-0.497%	0.1R	2.0×	12
2h	+3.257%	0.5R	-0.497%	0.1R	6.6×	24
4h	+5.916%	1.0R	-0.497%	0.1R	11.9×	48
6h ★	+5.916%	1.0R	-0.497%	0.1R	11.9×	72
8h	+5.916%	1.0R	-0.497%	0.1R	11.9×	96
12h	+5.916%	1.0R	-1.647%	0.3R	3.6×	144

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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