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Short Trade on XPL

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30 Sep 2026 at 15:15:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1344.79 XPL at 0.0916$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08929 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.09752 (6.49 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 15:15 → 21:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.09158$

Qty 1344.7864 XPL

Size 123.1502$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.08929 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.08$

SL 0.09752 (-6.49%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 0.39

Status loss PnL -3.70% / -4.56$ MAE -4.43% MFE +1.00% 0.2R expires 30 Sep 21:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 167957)
#54 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 15:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1930

Quality Score
0.454
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
34.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 15:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#54 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.49 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#54 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.49 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.48×ATR
4h clear 0.63×ATR
1d clear 0.51×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

30/09 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

30/09 14:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4485
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull expansion 0.90 -2
Operational range range 0.25 0
Tactical range range 0.25 0
Micro range range 0.25
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 31.6%
Impulse : +0.00
Participation : mixed_dispersion
Leadership : mixed
% Positive (universe)
15m 57.6%
1h 8.5%
4h 37.3%
24h 44.1%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 62.7% +0.05%
4h 35.6% -0.25%
24h 39.0% -0.29%
Dispersion : 0.148
Universe : 59 (≥ $2.0M)
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 30/09 15:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4974
Score SMA
0.6233
Rank
#65 / 83
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2195
Rank Norm SMA
0.4935
Calculé le
29/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6287 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.58% · r3d: -14.17% · ema21_slope: 1.0559% · dist_ema21: -0.266%
Force Relative 25% 0.3953 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.77% · rs_3d: -13.23% · beta_24h: 1.406
Volume 20% 0.5490 rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: 0.721 · trend: 100.05%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6679 ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 41.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 12.192% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.4536
Score SMA
0.5197
Rank
#54 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1930
Rank Norm SMA
0.3697
Calculé le
30/09/2026 15:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.1833 r1h: -2.519% · r4h: -3.422% · r1d: -7.33% · r3d: -13.94% · ema21_slope: -0.0936% · dist_ema21: -4.772%
Force Relative 25% 0.1207 rs_1h: -2.418% · rs_4h: -3.585% · rs_1d: -7.70% · rs_3d: -12.91% · beta_24h: 1.524
Volume 20% 0.9766 rvol_20: 4.47× · zscore_50: 3.977 · trend: 82.44%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5926 ADX: 17.4 (weak) · Chop: 44.6 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.755% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 30/09/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.3231
Score SMA
0.4964
Rank
#76 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0250
Rank Norm SMA
0.2975
Calculé le
30/09/2026 12:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2824 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.933% · r1d: -3.80% · r3d: -8.95% · ema21_slope: -0.4675% · dist_ema21: -4.616%
Force Relative 25% 0.3585 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.223% · rs_1d: -5.10% · rs_3d: -8.58% · beta_24h: 1.928
Volume 20% 0.3285 rvol_20: 1.13× · zscore_50: -0.092 · trend: -24.69%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4025 ADX: 23.9 (weak) · Chop: 74.9 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.2266 ATR%: 5.320% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -6.486% (0.0059)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.999% 0.2R -1.010% 0.2R 1.0× 12
2h +0.999% 0.2R -1.532% 0.2R 0.7× 24
4h +0.999% 0.2R -3.698% 0.6R 0.3× 48
6h ★ +0.999% 0.2R -4.430% 0.7R 0.2× 72
8h +0.999% 0.2R -5.261% 0.8R 0.2× 96
12h +0.999% 0.2R -7.833% 1.2R 0.1× 144

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.66
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate grind expansion_after_compression bull_high
60%
noisy_chop 41% early — near -0.2ATR 0.54 bull_high +12.90% +0.05 28/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bear_high
47%
noisy_chop 43% late — — 0.48 bull_high +2.22% -0.93 30/09 08:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate fading expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
55%
noisy_chop 42% late — — 0.44 range_medium +0.17% -0.51 30/09 14:00
15m ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition moderate grind expansion bear_high_confirmed
59%
noisy_chop 48% late — — 0.64 range_low +0.16% -0.52 30/09 14:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Regime Tradability Move PAQ Momentum Near S/D RVOL Vol zone POC dist LVN VP ref Évalué à
1d
177653 		↔ neutral bull_high
60%
early 4b 0.0ATR noisy_chop 41% 0.674

—

near -0.2ATR

1.13 below_value -6.68 ATR — #97294 28/09 20:00
upd 29/09 20:29
4h
184300 		↔ neutral bear_high
47%
late 25b -1.0ATR noisy_chop 43% 0.546

—

—

1.13 below_value -6.85 ATR — #100228 30/09 08:00
upd 30/09 12:18
1h anchor
185440 		↓ down bear_high_confirmed
55%
late 2b -1.7ATR noisy_chop 42% 0.633

—

—

4.47 below_value -7.89 ATR — #100763 30/09 14:00
upd 30/09 15:11
15m
185364 		↓ down bear_high_confirmed
59%
late 8b -2.5ATR noisy_chop 48% 0.482

—

—

0.48 below_value -7.14 ATR — #100608 30/09 14:45
upd 30/09 15:03
5m
Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 4b — 2.562×ATR p8 -0.02×ATR p2
4h ↓ down late 25b — 5.31×ATR p80 -1.021×ATR p65
1h ↓ down late 2b — 1.951×ATR p25 -1.745×ATR p89
15m ↓ down late 8b — 3.822×ATR p65 -2.543×ATR p98

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.0975249
  2. tp_price: 0.0892866
  3. atr: 0.00237956
  4. expires_at: 2026-10-01T01:15:06+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 79
  2. total: 79
  3. score: 0.1735
  4. delta_2h: -0.1437
  5. extension_atr: -1.76
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.193
  9. confidence: 1

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09158 0.09752 0.08929 0.39 0.08387
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09158
  • Stop Loss: 0.09752
  • Take Profit: 0.08929

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.09752 - 0.09158 = 0.00594

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09158 - 0.08929 = 0.00229

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00229 / 0.00594 = 0.3855

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
123.1502 100 1344.7864 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00594

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00594 = 1346.8

Taille de position USD = 1346.8 x 0.09158 = 123.34

Donc, tu peux acheter 1346.8 avec un stoploss a 0.09752

Avec un position size USD de 123.34$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1346.8 x 0.00594 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1346.8 x 0.00229 = 3.08

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.08$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1346.8
  • Taille de position USD 123.34
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 3.08
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3855

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.5 % 3.08 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
6.49 % 7.99 $
PNL PNL %
-4.56 $ -3.70
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-4.43 % 68.3 % 6
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09158 0.09752 0.08929 0.39 0.08387
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09158
  • Stop Loss: 0.09752
  • Take Profit: 0.08929

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.09752 - 0.09158 = 0.00594

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09158 - 0.08929 = 0.00229

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00229 / 0.00594 = 0.3855

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -6.486% (0.0059)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.999% 0.2R -1.010% 0.2R 1.0× 12
2h +0.999% 0.2R -1.532% 0.2R 0.7× 24
4h +0.999% 0.2R -3.698% 0.6R 0.3× 48
6h ★ +0.999% 0.2R -4.430% 0.7R 0.2× 72
8h +0.999% 0.2R -5.261% 0.8R 0.2× 96
12h +0.999% 0.2R -7.833% 1.2R 0.1× 144

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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