Short Trade on LIT

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30 Sep 2026 at 16:15:09 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 26.29 LIT at 3.86$ per unit. Take profit: 3.7632 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 4.164 (7.88 %)

LIT SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 30 Sep 2026 16:15 → 22:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 3.8597$

Qty 26.2871 LIT

Size 101.4603$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 3.7632 (+2.5%)

TP $ 2.54$

SL 4.164 (-7.88%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.32

Status loss PnL -1.27% / -1.29$ MAE -6.23% MFE +1.12% 0.1R expires 30 Sep 22:15 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 168045)

#77 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 30/09/2026 16:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0349

Quality Score

0.328

score brut du coin

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Regime Score

0 BLOCKED

seuil : score ≥ 1

Décision V2

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime

Volume 24h (signal)

206.8M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
30/09 16:03

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank

#77 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

7.88 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#77 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

7.88 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.77×ATR
4h	clear	1.24×ATR
1d	clear	3.43×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	early	OK
4h	↑ up	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime	BTC Market Regime V2
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0	ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 24/09 15:01 Score : -2

BTC Market Regime

BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-2)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0)

24/09 15:01

Score : -2

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime	Coin Market Regime V2
		Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 28/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 30/09 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/09 14:00 Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation

Coin Market Regime

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2)

30/09 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

30/09 14:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4489

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull	expansion	0.90	-2
Operational	range	range	0.25	0
Tactical	range	range	0.25	0
Micro	range	range	0.25

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 30.0%

Impulse : +0.00

Participation : mixed_dispersion

Leadership : mixed

% Positive (universe)

15m	45.0%
1h	50.0%
4h	23.3%
24h	48.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	38.3%	-0.10%
4h	35.0%	-0.79%
24h	43.3%	-0.00%

Dispersion : 0.165

Universe : 60 (≥ $2.0M)

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 30/09 16:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 29/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4075

Score SMA

0.5207

Rank

#80 / 83

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0366

Rank Norm SMA

0.2242

Calculé le

29/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3850	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -11.51% · r3d: -18.78% · ema21_slope: 0.6205% · dist_ema21: -13.228%
Force Relative	25%	0.1446	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -11.70% · rs_3d: -17.84% · beta_24h: 0.389
Volume	20%	0.6717	rvol_20: 2.00× · zscore_50: 1.844 · trend: 31.45%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8100	ADX: 43.8 (trend) · Chop: 45.0 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.102% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.3282

Score SMA

0.4656

Rank

#77 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0349

Rank Norm SMA

0.2566

Calculé le

30/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.0561	r1h: -1.839% · r4h: -4.486% · r1d: -13.90% · r3d: -18.10% · ema21_slope: -0.2036% · dist_ema21: -3.399%
Force Relative	25%	0.1100	rs_1h: -1.435% · rs_4h: -3.851% · rs_1d: -13.93% · rs_3d: -16.78% · beta_24h: 0.680
Volume	20%	0.2988	rvol_20: 0.76× · zscore_50: 0.006 · trend: -7.32%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6166	ADX: 30.3 (trend) · Chop: 55.0 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.8884	ATR%: 3.335% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 30/09/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.2675

Score SMA

0.4074

Rank

#76 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0399

Rank Norm SMA

0.1227

Calculé le

30/09/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.0584	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -4.486% · r1d: -13.90% · r3d: -18.10% · ema21_slope: -0.7322% · dist_ema21: -9.891%
Force Relative	25%	0.0448	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.851% · rs_1d: -13.93% · rs_3d: -16.78% · beta_24h: 2.788
Volume	20%	0.5486	rvol_20: 1.28× · zscore_50: 0.607 · trend: 87.04%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7972	ADX: 35.8 (trend) · Chop: 38.3 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 6.281% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.884% (0.3043)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.117%	0.1R	-1.329%	0.2R	0.8×	12
2h	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.226%	0.8R	0.2×	24
4h	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.226%	0.8R	0.2×	48
6h ★	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.226%	0.8R	0.2×	72
8h	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.596%	0.8R	0.2×	96
12h	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.596%	0.8R	0.2×	144

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.27

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_high	52%	noisy_chop 35%	mid	—	—	—	bull_high	+12.90%	-0.97	28/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bear_high_confirmed	46%	noisy_chop 44%	mid	—	—	0.33	bull_high	+2.22%	-0.94	30/09 08:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bear_high	45%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	0.29	range_medium	+0.17%	-0.87	30/09 14:00
15m	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	normal	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 40%	late	—	—	0.22	range_low	-0.24%	-0.27	30/09 15:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Regime	Tradability	Move	PAQ	Momentum	Near S/D	RVOL	Vol zone	POC dist	LVN	VP ref	Évalué à
1d 177678	↑ up	bull_high	52%	mid 5b -1.2ATR	noisy_chop 35%	0.588	— —	2.00	below_value	-4.17 ATR	inside	#97306	28/09 20:00 upd 29/09 20:30
4h 184333	↓ down	bear_high_confirmed	46%	mid 4b -1.2ATR	noisy_chop 44%	0.406	— —	1.84	below_value	-2.76 ATR	—	#100239	30/09 08:00 upd 30/09 12:19
1h anchor 185451	↓ down	bear_high	45%	early 2b -0.7ATR	noisy_chop 37%	0.395	— —	0.25	below_value	-3.46 ATR	—	#100774	30/09 14:00 upd 30/09 15:12
15m 185766	↔ neutral	bear_high	55%	late 12b -1.6ATR	noisy_chop 40%	0.414	— —	3.13	below_value	-3.46 ATR	—	#100774	30/09 15:45 upd 30/09 16:04
5m	Pas de snapshot frais lors de la création du trade

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	5b	—	3.47×ATR	p44	-1.219×ATR	p67
4h	↑ up	mid	4b	—	1.727×ATR	p0	-1.189×ATR	p67
1h	↓ down	early	2b	—	1.677×ATR	p12	-0.674×ATR	p38
15m	↓ down	late	12b	—	5.126×ATR	p94	-1.645×ATR	p81

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 4.16403179
tp_price: 3.7632075
atr: 0.12173271
expires_at: 2026-10-01T02:15:09+00:00

Details

rank: 76
total: 77
score: 0.1577
delta_2h: -0.06
extension_atr: -0.84
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0349
confidence: 0.987

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	16:15	3.85970000	0%
2	17:15	3.83530000	-0.632%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.8597	4.164	3.7632	0.32	3.0169

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.8597
Stop Loss: 4.164
Take Profit: 3.7632

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.164 - 3.8597 = 0.3043
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.8597 - 3.7632 = 0.0965
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0965 / 0.3043 = 0.3171

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
101.4603	100	26.2871	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.3043

Taille de position = 8 / 0.3043 = 26.29

Taille de position USD = 26.29 x 3.8597 = 101.47

Donc, tu peux acheter 26.29 avec un stoploss a 4.164

Avec un position size USD de 101.47$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 26.29 x 0.3043 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 26.29 x 0.0965 = 2.54

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.54$

Résumé

Taille de position 26.29
Taille de position USD 101.47
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 2.54
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3171

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	2.54 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
7.88 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-1.29 $	-1.27

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-6.2259 %	78.97 %	5

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.8597	4.164	3.7632	0.32	3.0169

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.8597
Stop Loss: 4.164
Take Profit: 3.7632

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 4.164 - 3.8597 = 0.3043
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.8597 - 3.7632 = 0.0965
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0965 / 0.3043 = 0.3171

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.884% (0.3043)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.117%	0.1R	-1.329%	0.2R	0.8×	12
2h	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.226%	0.8R	0.2×	24
4h	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.226%	0.8R	0.2×	48
6h ★	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.226%	0.8R	0.2×	72
8h	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.596%	0.8R	0.2×	96
12h	+1.117%	0.1R	-6.596%	0.8R	0.2×	144

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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