Short Trade on XPL

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01 Oct 2026 at 11:11:07 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 2634.02 XPL at 0.0934$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08583 (8.12 %) & Stop Loss: 0.09646 (3.25 %)

XPL SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 11:11 → 13:15 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.09342$

Qty 2634.0223 XPL

Size 246.0783$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.08583 (+8.12%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 0.09646 (-3.25%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -3.25% / -8.01$ MAE -4.67% MFE +0.00% 0.0R expires 01 Oct 23:10

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 169960)

#32 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 11:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3748

Quality Score

0.518

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#32 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

84 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.25 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#32 / 77 OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

84 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-2 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.25 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	4.23×ATR
4h	clear	0.80×ATR
1d	near	0.44×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	early	OK
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

32.0M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 11:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 09:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

01/10 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

01/10 09:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4565

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	range 0.25	range 0
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	range

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 16.4%

Macro btc_led_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : btc

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	37.3%
1h	27.1%
4h	18.6%
24h	35.6%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	30.5%	-0.06%
4h	13.6%	-0.68%
24h	30.5%	-1.06%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.134

Universe : 59 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 01/10 11:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5166

Score SMA

0.6388

Rank

#58 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2400

Rank Norm SMA

0.5093

Calculé le

30/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6767	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.92% · r3d: -10.66% · ema21_slope: 1.0159% · dist_ema21: -1.073%
Force Relative	25%	0.4756	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.90% · rs_3d: -9.68% · beta_24h: 1.428
Volume	20%	0.4932	rvol_20: 1.03× · zscore_50: 0.610 · trend: 75.28%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6404	ADX: 21.9 (weak) · Chop: 43.4 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.163% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 11:00

Score brut

0.5182

Score SMA

0.5206

Rank

#32 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.3748

Rank Norm SMA

0.3677

Calculé le

01/10/2026 11:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3653	r1h: -2.063% · r4h: -2.143% · r1d: -1.07% · r3d: -3.71% · ema21_slope: 0.0566% · dist_ema21: -2.093%
Force Relative	25%	0.3049	rs_1h: -2.169% · rs_4h: -2.251% · rs_1d: -1.34% · rs_3d: -4.93% · beta_24h: 1.661
Volume	20%	0.8153	rvol_20: 3.12× · zscore_50: 1.817 · trend: 20.64%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4389	ADX: 15.1 (weak) · Chop: 61.3 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.054% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.3671

Score SMA

0.4923

Rank

#69 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0981

Rank Norm SMA

0.2945

Calculé le

01/10/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3365	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.339% · r1d: -2.34% · r3d: -4.16% · ema21_slope: -0.4092% · dist_ema21: -2.317%
Force Relative	25%	0.4639	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.924% · rs_1d: -2.33% · rs_3d: -5.13% · beta_24h: 2.153
Volume	20%	0.2221	rvol_20: 0.80× · zscore_50: -0.694 · trend: -34.45%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4695	ADX: 24.5 (weak) · Chop: 67.2 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.3529	ATR%: 4.941% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.254% (0.0030)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.681%	0.5R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.389%	0.7R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.000%	0.0R	-4.595%	1.4R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.000%	0.0R	-4.595%	1.4R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.000%	0.0R	-4.674%	1.4R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.000%	0.0R	-10.929%	3.4R	0.0×	288
36h	+4.440%	1.4R	-10.929%	3.4R	0.4×	432
48h	+4.440%	1.4R	-10.929%	3.4R	0.4×	576
72h	+4.440%	1.4R	-10.929%	3.4R	0.4×	864

⏱ MFE in 1653 min MAE in 1408 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	62%	noisy_chop 39%	early	near 0.4ATR	near -0.1ATR	0.54	bull_high	+12.59%	+0.32	29/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	49%	noisy_chop 40%	late	—	—	0.49	bull_high	+1.77%	-0.71	01/10 04:00
1h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	61%	noisy_chop 39%	early	—	near 0.2ATR	0.47	range_medium	+0.18%	+0.20	01/10 09:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	balanced	expansion_after_compression	bear_high_confirmed	58%	noisy_chop 39%	late	—	—	0.62	range_low	+0.27%	-0.24	01/10 10:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #187735	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.672	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	62%	noisy_chop 39%	early 5b -0.1ATR	near 0.4ATR	near -0.1ATR	1.03	93%	↑ +0.85	below_value	-7.62	—	#101618	0.54	bull_high	+12.59%	+0.32	29/09 20:00 upd 30/09 20:26
4h #192630	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.542	compression	bear_high	49%	noisy_chop 40%	late 30b -0.5ATR	—	—	0.80	73%	↓ -0.18	below_value	-8.27	—	#103727	0.49	bull_high	+1.77%	-0.71	01/10 04:00 upd 01/10 08:19
1h anchor #193402	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.526	compression	bear_high	61%	noisy_chop 39%	early 4b -0.1ATR	—	near 0.2ATR	0.65	25%	↓ -0.44	below_value	-8.19	—	#104119	0.47	range_medium	+0.18%	+0.20	01/10 09:00 upd 01/10 10:12
15m #193714	↓ down	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.534	expansion_after_compression	bear_high_confirmed	58%	noisy_chop 39%	late 5b -1.6ATR	—	—	1.65	84%	↑ +0.63	below_value	-8.19	—	#104119	0.62	range_low	+0.27%	-0.24	01/10 10:45 upd 01/10 11:03
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	5b	—	2.668×ATR	p12	-0.079×ATR	p5
4h	↓ down	late	30b	—	5.558×ATR	p82	-0.536×ATR	p37
1h	↓ down	early	4b	—	1.175×ATR	p0	-0.137×ATR	p8
15m	↓ down	late	5b	—	2.621×ATR	p30	-1.647×ATR	p83

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

long_trend: -1
confidence: 0.8389
reason: down_bo width=1.95×ATR dur=44b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.09646018
tp_price: 0.08583005
atr:
score: 0.83890601128806
expires_at: 2026-10-02T03:10:59.793313
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.83890601128806

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.1397
obi_top10 : -0.1193
micro_price : 0.09346974
spread_pct : 0.042799
mid_price : 0.09348
bid_wall_price : 0.0928
bid_wall_size : 1934295
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 0.0944
ask_wall_size : 1699446
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : -0.1159
obi_top5_std : 0.038
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 6896
aggregation_tick : 0.0001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.09809
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.094458
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.096274
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790712000
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790866800
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
1.9508
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
44
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.8389
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790863200
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.094458
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.75
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.5559
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
10
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
11
```
regime : bear_high
atr_entry : 0.00186181

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.75

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.5559

Signaux confirmants (8)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	11:11	0.09342300	+0.003%
2	11:22	0.09342300	+0.003%
3	11:34	0.09342300	+0.003%
4	11:45	0.09406800	+0.694%
5	11:57	0.09406800	+0.694%
6	12:12	0.09438000	+1.028%
7	12:25	0.09438000	+1.028%
8	12:36	0.09438000	+1.028%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6896ms Confidence avant OB : 84% → 84%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.140

avg -0.116 ± 0.038

OBI Top 10 -0.119

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.0935

Micro Price

0.0935

Spread

0.0428%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.0928

Size

1,934,295.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

0.0944

Size

1,699,446.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09342	0.09646	0.08583	2.5	0.07373

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09342
Stop Loss: 0.09646
Take Profit: 0.08583

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.09646 - 0.09342 = 0.00304
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09342 - 0.08583 = 0.00759
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00759 / 0.00304 = 2.4967

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
246.0783	100	2634.0223	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.00304

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00304 = 2631.58

Taille de position USD = 2631.58 x 0.09342 = 245.84

Donc, tu peux acheter 2631.58 avec un stoploss a 0.09646

Avec un position size USD de 245.84$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 2631.58 x 0.00304 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 2631.58 x 0.00759 = 19.97

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$

Résumé

Taille de position 2631.58
Taille de position USD 245.84
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 19.97
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4967

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
8.12 %	19.99 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
3.25 %	8.01 $

PNL	PNL %
-8.01 $	-3.25

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.647 %	112.07 %	0

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.09342	0.09646	0.08583	2.5	0.07373

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.09342
Stop Loss: 0.09646
Take Profit: 0.08583

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.09646 - 0.09342 = 0.00304
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.09342 - 0.08583 = 0.00759
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00759 / 0.00304 = 2.4967

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.08583
            [entry_price] => 0.09342
            [stop_loss] => 0.096764
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 17:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.08583
            [entry_price] => 0.09342
            [stop_loss] => 0.097068
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 17:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.08583
            [entry_price] => 0.09342
            [stop_loss] => 0.097372
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-01 17:50:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.254% (0.0030)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.000%	0.0R	-1.681%	0.5R	0.0×	12
2h	+0.000%	0.0R	-2.389%	0.7R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.000%	0.0R	-4.595%	1.4R	0.0×	48
8h	+0.000%	0.0R	-4.595%	1.4R	0.0×	96
12h ★	+0.000%	0.0R	-4.674%	1.4R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.000%	0.0R	-10.929%	3.4R	0.0×	288
36h	+4.440%	1.4R	-10.929%	3.4R	0.4×	432
48h	+4.440%	1.4R	-10.929%	3.4R	0.4×	576
72h	+4.440%	1.4R	-10.929%	3.4R	0.4×	864

⏱ MFE in 1653 min MAE in 1408 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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