Short Trade on VVV (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 8.08 VVV at 26.874$ per unit. Take profit: 24.4001 (9.21 %) & Stop Loss: 27.8636 (3.68 %)
01 Oct 2026 at 11:10:28
hyperliquid
VVV
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Oct 2026 11:10
→ 13:30
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 26.874$
Qty 8.0844 VVV
Size 217.2603$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 24.4001 (+9.21%)
TP $ 20$
SL 27.8636 (-3.68%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-3.68%
/ -8$
MAE -3.79%
MFE +3.62%
1.0R
expires
01 Oct 23:10
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 169954)
#66 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 11:00
score du 01/10/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3974
Quality Score
0.429
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#66 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-6
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#66 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-6
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.41×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.32×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.04×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
6.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 11:01
01/10 11:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 01/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 09:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 4565
bull
developing
bull_consolidation
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
16.4%
Macro
btc_led_risk_on
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 37.3% |
| 1h | 27.1% |
| 4h | 18.6% |
| 24h | 35.6% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 30.5% | -0.06% |
| 4h | 13.6% | -0.68% |
| 24h | 30.5% | -1.06% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.134
Universe :
59
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.75
Snapshot évalué :
01/10 11:01
· env trend_consolidation
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5078
Score SMA
0.5540
Rank
#60
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2133
Rank Norm SMA
0.2525
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6259 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 2.74% · r3d: -5.50% · ema21_slope: 1.8559% · dist_ema21: 4.080% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5764 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 2.75% · rs_3d: -4.52% · beta_24h: 1.075 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2186 | rvol_20: 0.50× · zscore_50: -0.285 · trend: -21.83% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8812 | ADX: 56.8 (trend) · Chop: 49.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 10.579% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.4286
Score SMA
0.4816
Rank
#66
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3974
Rank Norm SMA
0.2875
Calculé le
01/10/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3746 | r1h: -2.151% · r4h: -2.966% · r1d: -3.26% · r3d: 0.22% · ema21_slope: 0.0299% · dist_ema21: -2.350% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2893 | rs_1h: -2.257% · rs_4h: -3.074% · rs_1d: -3.54% · rs_3d: -1.00% · beta_24h: 2.049 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4431 | rvol_20: 1.87× · zscore_50: 0.010 · trend: -31.97% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4534 | ADX: 15.3 (weak) · Chop: 59.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.845% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/10/2026 08:00
Score brut
0.4226
Score SMA
0.4140
Rank
#64
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1959
Rank Norm SMA
0.0873
Calculé le
01/10/2026 08:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4673 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.358% · r1d: 2.48% · r3d: 1.04% · ema21_slope: -0.2584% · dist_ema21: -0.263% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4997 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.227% · rs_1d: 2.48% · rs_3d: 0.07% · beta_24h: 2.832 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1468 | rvol_20: 0.39× · zscore_50: -0.798 · trend: -58.12% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3799 | ADX: 23.0 (weak) · Chop: 76.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7118 | ATR%: 3.865% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.682%
(0.9896)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.609% | 1.0R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.234% | 0.1R | -3.609% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.234% | 0.1R | -3.788% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -3.788% | 1.0R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.617% | 1.0R | -3.788% | 1.0R | 1.0× | 143 |
| 24h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -12.849% | 3.5R | 0.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -12.849% | 3.5R | 0.3× | 432 |
| 48h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -12.849% | 3.5R | 0.3× | 576 |
| 72h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -12.849% | 3.5R | 0.3× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 254 min
MAE in 1179 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.82
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.38 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.49 | 29/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.29 | bull_high | +1.77% | -0.20 | 01/10 04:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | near 0.4ATR | near -0.4ATR | 0.38 | range_medium | +0.18% | -0.05 | 01/10 09:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | near 0.3ATR | — | 0.56 | range_low | +0.27% | -0.35 | 01/10 10:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#187717
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.626 | expansion | bull_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early 9b 0.3ATR | — | — | 0.50 | 67% | ↓ -0.18 | value | -4.99 | — | #101612 | 0.38 | bull_high | +12.59% | +0.49 |
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:25
|
|
4h
#192612
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.380 | compression | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early 14b -0.1ATR | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.39 | 26% | ↓ -0.56 | above_value | +0.71 | — | #103721 | 0.29 | bull_high | +1.77% | -0.20 |
01/10 04:00
upd 01/10 08:18
|
|
1h
anchor #193395
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.394 | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early 4b -0.3ATR | near 0.4ATR | near -0.4ATR | 1.08 | 33% | ↓ -0.29 | above_value | +0.55 | — | #104112 | 0.38 | range_medium | +0.18% | -0.05 |
01/10 09:00
upd 01/10 10:12
|
|
15m
#193710
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.558 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 4b -2.0ATR | near 0.3ATR | — | 1.37 | 57% | ↑ +0.80 | above_value | +0.55 | — | #104112 | 0.56 | range_low | +0.27% | -0.35 |
01/10 10:45
upd 01/10 11:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 9b | — | 2.366×ATR | p4 | +0.321×ATR | p13 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 14b | — | 1.591×ATR | p3 | -0.075×ATR | p5 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 1.346×ATR | p0 | -0.268×ATR | p19 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 2.823×ATR | p42 | -1.969×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8802
- reason: down_bo width=1.94×ATR dur=27b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 27.86355959
- tp_price: 24.40010103
- atr:
- score: 0.88021489083507
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T03:10:20.387287
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.88021489083507
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0004
- obi_top10 : 0.0103
- micro_price : 26.78610411
- spread_pct : 0.078431
- mid_price : 26.7855
- bid_wall_price : 26.5
- bid_wall_size : 2428.77
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 26.9
- ask_wall_size : 2544.74
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0001
- obi_top5_std : 0.0105
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7240
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
28.2795
- balance_zone_bottom:
27.352
- balance_zone_mid:
27.81575
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790773200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790866800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.94
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
27
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8802
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790863200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
27.352
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7407
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.9998
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
12
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.47809589 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
27
inside_close_ratio
0.7407
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.9998
Signaux confirmants (8)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:10 | 26.87400000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:21 | 26.87400000 | 0% |
| 3 | 11:33 | 26.87400000 | 0% |
| 4 | 11:45 | 27.03000000 | +0.58% |
| 5 | 11:56 | 27.03000000 | +0.58% |
| 6 | 13:11 | 27.16600000 | +1.087% |
| 7 | 13:22 | 27.16600000 | +1.087% |
| 8 | 13:33 | 27.16600000 | +1.087% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7240ms
Confidence avant OB :
88%
→
88%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.000
avg 0.000
± 0.011
OBI Top 10
0.010
Microstructure
Mid Price
26.7855
Micro Price
26.7861
Spread
0.0784%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
26.5000
Size
2,428.77
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
26.9000
Size
2,544.74
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.874 | 27.8636 | 24.4001 | 2.5 | 22.816 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 26.874
- Stop Loss: 27.8636
- Take Profit: 24.4001
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 27.8636 - 26.874 = 0.9896
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 26.874 - 24.4001 = 2.4739
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 2.4739 / 0.9896 = 2.4999
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 217.2603 | 100 | 8.0844 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.9896
Taille de position = 8 / 0.9896 = 8.08
Taille de position USD = 8.08 x 26.874 = 217.14
Donc, tu peux acheter 8.08 avec un stoploss a 27.8636
Avec un position size USD de 217.14$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 8.08 x 0.9896 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 8.08 x 2.4739 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 8.08
- Taille de position USD 217.14
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4999
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.21 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.68 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -3.68 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.788 % | 102.87 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.874 | 27.8636 | 24.4001 | 2.5 | 22.816 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 26.874
- Stop Loss: 27.8636
- Take Profit: 24.4001
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 27.8636 - 26.874 = 0.9896
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 26.874 - 24.4001 = 2.4739
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 2.4739 / 0.9896 = 2.4999
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.682%
(0.9896)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.609% | 1.0R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.234% | 0.1R | -3.609% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.234% | 0.1R | -3.788% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -3.788% | 1.0R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.617% | 1.0R | -3.788% | 1.0R | 1.0× | 143 |
| 24h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -12.849% | 3.5R | 0.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -12.849% | 3.5R | 0.3× | 432 |
| 48h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -12.849% | 3.5R | 0.3× | 576 |
| 72h | +3.617% | 1.0R | -12.849% | 3.5R | 0.3× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 254 min
MAE in 1179 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.