Short Trade on PENGU

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01 Oct 2026 at 12:15:07 hyperliquid

Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 18753.81 PENGU at 0.00935$ per unit. Take profit: 0.009121 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.009782 (4.56 %)

PENGU SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 12:15 → 18:05 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.009355$

Qty 18753.8094 PENGU

Size 175.4419$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.009121 (+2.5%)

TP $ 4.39$

SL 0.009782 (-4.56%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 0.55

Status loss PnL -0.51% / -0.9$ MAE -2.81% MFE +1.00% 0.2R expires 01 Oct 18:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 170026)

#69 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 12:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1569

Quality Score

0.410

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#69 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-2

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.56 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#69 / 77 OK

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 % OK

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-6 BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.56 % OK

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.07×ATR
4h	near	-0.39×ATR
1d	clear	3.57×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	early	OK
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-2 OK

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

btc OK

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

5.9M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 12:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 29/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 01/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 10:00 Score : -4 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

01/10 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

01/10 10:00

Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4569

bull developing bull_consolidation

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	range 0.25	range 0
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	range

MTF alignment : 0.55

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -2

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 11.7%

Macro btc_led_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : btc

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	76.7%
1h	40.0%
4h	10.0%
24h	20.0%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	76.7%	+0.21%
4h	10.0%	-1.97%
24h	25.0%	-2.34%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.205

Universe : 60 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.75

Snapshot évalué : 01/10 12:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5131

Score SMA

0.6092

Rank

#59 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2267

Rank Norm SMA

0.4367

Calculé le

30/09/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6408	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.51% · r3d: -6.30% · ema21_slope: 1.6707% · dist_ema21: 6.849%
Force Relative	25%	0.4246	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.50% · rs_3d: -5.32% · beta_24h: 1.607
Volume	20%	0.4638	rvol_20: 1.23× · zscore_50: 0.392 · trend: 40.48%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8129	ADX: 37.5 (trend) · Chop: 33.5 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 9.421% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.4101

Score SMA

0.5259

Rank

#69 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1569

Rank Norm SMA

0.4422

Calculé le

01/10/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3168	r1h: 0.269% · r4h: -3.389% · r1d: -6.11% · r3d: -1.84% · ema21_slope: -0.1266% · dist_ema21: -3.390%
Force Relative	25%	0.3297	rs_1h: 0.143% · rs_4h: -3.686% · rs_1d: -6.12% · rs_3d: -2.76% · beta_24h: 1.876
Volume	20%	0.4075	rvol_20: 1.36× · zscore_50: -0.111 · trend: 8.50%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5813	ADX: 19.4 (weak) · Chop: 48.1 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.913% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.3754

Score SMA

0.5427

Rank

#62 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2039

Rank Norm SMA

0.4654

Calculé le

01/10/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4231	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -3.389% · r1d: -6.11% · r3d: -1.84% · ema21_slope: 0.0040% · dist_ema21: -4.183%
Force Relative	25%	0.2901	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.686% · rs_1d: -6.12% · rs_3d: -2.76% · beta_24h: 2.575
Volume	20%	0.3121	rvol_20: 1.09× · zscore_50: -0.138 · trend: -29.37%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6142	ADX: 31.7 (trend) · Chop: 56.7 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.4358	ATR%: 4.693% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.564% (0.0004)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.005%	0.2R	-1.080%	0.2R	0.9×	12
2h	+1.005%	0.2R	-2.640%	0.6R	0.4×	24
4h	+1.005%	0.2R	-2.811%	0.6R	0.4×	48
6h ★	+1.005%	0.2R	-2.811%	0.6R	0.4×	72
8h	+1.005%	0.2R	-2.811%	0.6R	0.4×	96
12h	+1.005%	0.2R	-3.592%	0.8R	0.3×	144
24h	+1.005%	0.2R	-7.932%	1.7R	0.1×	288
48h	+7.696%	1.7R	-7.932%	1.7R	1.0×	576
72h	+7.696%	1.7R	-7.932%	1.7R	1.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 39 min MAE in 984 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.54

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	near -0.4ATR	0.72	bull_high	+12.59%	+0.95	29/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	compression	bull_high	53%	noisy_chop 31%	early	near -0.4ATR	—	0.57	bull_high	+1.77%	-0.21	01/10 04:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 42%	late	near -0.1ATR	—	0.54	range_medium	+0.28%	-0.44	01/10 10:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	fading	expansion	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 46%	mid	—	near -0.2ATR	0.69	range_low	+0.39%	-0.44	01/10 11:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #187701	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.681	volatile_reversal	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early 15b 0.6ATR	—	near -0.4ATR	1.23	88%	↑ +0.90	value	-1.08	—	#101607	0.72	bull_high	+12.59%	+0.95	29/09 20:00 upd 30/09 20:24
4h #192597	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.575	compression	bull_high	53%	noisy_chop 31%	early 5b -0.3ATR	near -0.4ATR	—	0.31	43%	↓ -0.44	value	-1.25	—	#103716	0.57	bull_high	+1.77%	-0.21	01/10 04:00 upd 01/10 08:17
1h anchor #193779	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	0.619	compression	bear_high	57%	noisy_chop 42%	late 8b -2.5ATR	near -0.1ATR	—	2.42	71%	↔ +0.13	below_value	-3.16	—	#104263	0.54	range_medium	+0.28%	-0.44	01/10 10:00 upd 01/10 11:11
15m #194094	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	fading	0.577	expansion	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 46%	mid 3b -1.5ATR	—	near -0.2ATR	0.16	22%	↑ +0.57	below_value	-3.16	—	#104263	0.69	range_low	+0.39%	-0.44	01/10 11:45 upd 01/10 12:03
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	15b	—	3.257×ATR	p21	+0.588×ATR	p32
4h	↓ down	early	5b	—	2.279×ATR	p8	-0.279×ATR	p16
1h	↓ down	late	8b	—	3.749×ATR	p74	-2.453×ATR	p98
15m	↑ up	mid	3b	—	1.136×ATR	p0	-1.453×ATR	p68

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.00978158
tp_price: 0.00912113
atr: 0.00017063
expires_at: 2026-10-01T22:15:07+00:00

Details

rank: 74
total: 77
score: 0.2701
delta_2h: -0.0629
extension_atr: -1.53
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1569
confidence: 0.961

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.009355	0.009782	0.009121	0.55	0.007513

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.009355
Stop Loss: 0.009782
Take Profit: 0.009121

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009782 - 0.009355 = 0.000427
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.009355 - 0.009121 = 0.000234
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000234 / 0.000427 = 0.548

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
175.4419	100	18753.8094	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.000427

Taille de position = 8 / 0.000427 = 18735.36

Taille de position USD = 18735.36 x 0.009355 = 175.27

Donc, tu peux acheter 18735.36 avec un stoploss a 0.009782

Avec un position size USD de 175.27$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 18735.36 x 0.000427 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 18735.36 x 0.000234 = 4.38

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.38$

Résumé

Taille de position 18735.36
Taille de position USD 175.27
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 4.38
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.548

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	4.39 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.56 %	8.01 $

PNL	PNL %
-0.9 $	-0.51

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.8113 %	61.59 %	8

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.009355	0.009782	0.009121	0.55	0.007513

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.009355
Stop Loss: 0.009782
Take Profit: 0.009121

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009782 - 0.009355 = 0.000427
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.009355 - 0.009121 = 0.000234
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000234 / 0.000427 = 0.548

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.564% (0.0004)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+1.005%	0.2R	-1.080%	0.2R	0.9×	12
2h	+1.005%	0.2R	-2.640%	0.6R	0.4×	24
4h	+1.005%	0.2R	-2.811%	0.6R	0.4×	48
6h ★	+1.005%	0.2R	-2.811%	0.6R	0.4×	72
8h	+1.005%	0.2R	-2.811%	0.6R	0.4×	96
12h	+1.005%	0.2R	-3.592%	0.8R	0.3×	144
24h	+1.005%	0.2R	-7.932%	1.7R	0.1×	288
48h	+7.696%	1.7R	-7.932%	1.7R	1.0×	576
72h	+7.696%	1.7R	-7.932%	1.7R	1.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 39 min MAE in 984 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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