01 Oct 2026 at 14:12:20 hyperliquid

Long Trade on BTC (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 0.0085 BTC at 84703$ per unit. Take profit: 87051.8064 (2.77 %) & Stop Loss: 83763.4774 (1.11 %)

BTC LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 14:12 → 02:10 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 84703$

Qty 0.008515 BTC

Size 721.2429$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)

Risk Setup

TP 87051.8064 (+2.77%)

TP $ 20$

SL 83763.4774 (-1.11%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status win PnL +1.39% / +10.01$ MAE -0.30% MFE +2.56% 2.3R expires 02 Oct 02:12 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 170206)
#20 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 14:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7068

Quality Score
0.560
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#20 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.11 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#20 / 77 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
74 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.11 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.85×ATR
4h clear 0.68×ATR
1d clear 5.82×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↑ up early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
2.05B $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 14:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

29/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

01/10 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_medium (+1)

01/10 13:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 4577
bull developing bull_consolidation
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 45.6%
Macro btc_led_risk_on
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 15.8%
1h 96.5%
4h 61.4%
24h 40.4%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 33.3% -0.14%
4h 26.3% +0.33%
24h 26.3% -0.58%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.151
Universe : 57 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 0.75
Snapshot évalué : 01/10 14:01 · env trend_consolidation

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 30/09/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6181
Score SMA
0.6297
Rank
#31 / 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6000
Rank Norm SMA
0.5214
Calculé le
30/09/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6579 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.02% · r3d: -0.98% · ema21_slope: 0.5090% · dist_ema21: 2.190%
Force Relative 25% 0.5000 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000
Volume 20% 0.3540 rvol_20: 1.06× · zscore_50: 0.064 · trend: -5.11%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8328 ADX: 41.8 (trend) · Chop: 40.1 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.736% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 14:00
Score brut
0.5598
Score SMA
0.5143
Rank
#20 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7068
Rank Norm SMA
0.4426
Calculé le
01/10/2026 14:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5635 r1h: 0.833% · r4h: 1.121% · r1d: 1.02% · r3d: 1.20% · ema21_slope: 0.0169% · dist_ema21: 1.086%
Force Relative 25% 0.5000 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000
Volume 20% 0.6738 rvol_20: 2.28× · zscore_50: 0.966 · trend: 43.28%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5407 ADX: 12.2 (weak) · Chop: 45.7 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.609% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 01/10/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.5420
Score SMA
0.5128
Rank
#14 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6974
Rank Norm SMA
0.3747
Calculé le
01/10/2026 12:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5316 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.297% · r1d: 0.00% · r3d: 0.91% · ema21_slope: -0.0052% · dist_ema21: 0.465%
Force Relative 25% 0.5000 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000
Volume 20% 0.4095 rvol_20: 1.30× · zscore_50: 0.273 · trend: -2.49%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5041 ADX: 18.2 (weak) · Chop: 56.4 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.053% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.109% (939.5226)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.646% 0.6R -0.083% 0.1R 7.8× 12
2h +0.646% 0.6R -0.207% 0.2R 3.1× 24
4h +0.646% 0.6R -0.302% 0.3R 2.1× 48
8h +0.646% 0.6R -0.302% 0.3R 2.1× 96
12h ★ +2.563% 2.3R -0.302% 0.3R 8.5× 144
24h +2.989% 2.7R -0.302% 0.3R 9.9× 288
36h +2.989% 2.7R -1.012% 0.9R 3.0× 432
48h +2.989% 2.7R -1.012% 0.9R 3.0× 576
72h +2.989% 2.7R -1.012% 0.9R 3.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 1097 min MAE in 1472 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 4.28
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
61%
noisy_chop 36% early — — — — — — 29/09 20:00
4h ↑ up range range moderate fading expansion bull_high
57%
noisy_chop 35% early near 0.2ATR — — — — — 01/10 08:00
1h ↔ neutral range range strong balanced expansion_after_compression bull_medium
60%
noisy_chop 43% late — near -0.9ATR — — — — 01/10 13:00
15m ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_low_confirmed
34%
noisy_chop 42% late — — — — — — 01/10 13:45
5m ↑ up range range moderate explosive compression bull_low
49%
noisy_chop 42% mid — — — — — — 01/10 14:00

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#187496
↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.604 normal bull_high
61%
noisy_chop 36% early 15b 0.7ATR — — 1.06 75% ↔ +0.04 above_value -0.97 — #101556 — — — —
29/09 20:00
upd 30/09 20:15
4h
#194119
↑ up range range moderate fading 0.538 expansion bull_high
57%
noisy_chop 35% early 6b 0.3ATR near 0.2ATR — 1.09 71% ↔ -0.08 above_value +0.02 — #104212 — — — —
01/10 08:00
upd 01/10 12:05
1h anchor
#194969
↔ neutral range range strong balanced 0.541 expansion_after_compression bull_medium
60%
noisy_chop 43% late 9b 1.6ATR — near -0.9ATR 1.35 74% ↑ +0.53 above_value +0.33 — #104598 — — — —
01/10 13:00
upd 01/10 14:05
15m
#194896
↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive 0.696 volatile_reversal bull_low_confirmed
34%
noisy_chop 42% late 4b 1.8ATR — — 1.35 91% ↔ +0.03 above_value +0.33 — #104598 — — — —
01/10 13:45
upd 01/10 14:00
5m
#194968
↑ up range range moderate explosive 0.678 compression bull_low
49%
noisy_chop 42% mid 13b 1.0ATR — — 0.06 6% ↔ +0.12 above_value +0.33 — #104598 — — — —
01/10 14:00
upd 01/10 14:05
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up early 15b — 3.805×ATR p40 +0.742×ATR p41
4h ↓ down early 6b — 1.898×ATR p0 +0.268×ATR p19
1h ↑ up late 9b — 3.258×ATR p61 +1.605×ATR p82
15m ↑ up late 4b — 2.765×ATR p47 +1.839×ATR p87
5m ↑ up mid 13b — 4.371×ATR p77 +1.021×ATR p49

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.7421
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.75×ATR dur=54b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(-0.10)|ob:obi_bearish(-0.05)
  4. stop_price: 83763.47742734
  5. tp_price: 87051.80643166
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.89207652051754
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-02T06:12:12.229979
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.89207652051754
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.496
  14. obi_top10 : -0.496
  15. micro_price : 84905.37786023
  16. spread_pct : 0.000118
  17. mid_price : 84905.35
  18. bid_wall_price :
  19. bid_wall_size :
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price :
  22. ask_wall_size :
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.5215
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0301
  27. pressure_side : ask
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7085
  30. aggregation_tick : 100
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    84493
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    83133
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    83813
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790686800
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790877600
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.7462
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    54
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8921
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790874000
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    84493
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.8333
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.424
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    5
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    12
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 495.22572664
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
54
inside_close_ratio
0.8333
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.424

Signaux confirmants (25)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 14:12 84703.00000000 0%
2 14:24 84703.00000000 0%
3 14:36 84841.00000000 +0.163%
4 14:47 84841.00000000 +0.163%
5 14:58 84841.00000000 +0.163%
6 15:11 84763.00000000 +0.071%
7 15:23 84763.00000000 +0.071%
8 15:34 84721.00000000 +0.021%
9 15:46 84721.00000000 +0.021%
10 15:57 84721.00000000 +0.021%
11 16:12 84783.00000000 +0.094%
12 16:25 84783.00000000 +0.094%
13 16:37 84715.00000000 +0.014%
14 16:49 84715.00000000 +0.014%
15 17:00 84715.00000000 +0.014%
16 17:13 84577.00000000 -0.149%
17 17:25 84577.00000000 -0.149%
18 17:37 84517.00000000 -0.22%
19 17:48 84517.00000000 -0.22%
20 17:59 84517.00000000 -0.22%
21 18:14 84734.00000000 +0.037%
22 18:26 84734.00000000 +0.037%
23 18:38 84620.00000000 -0.098%
24 18:49 84620.00000000 -0.098%
25 19:00 84620.00000000 -0.098%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↓ ask ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7085ms Confidence avant OB : 89% → 74%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.496
avg -0.522 ± 0.030
OBI Top 10 -0.496

Microstructure

Mid Price
84,905.3500
Micro Price
84,905.3779
Spread
0.0001%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
84703 83763.4774 87051.8064 2.5 77584
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 84703
  • Stop Loss: 83763.4774
  • Take Profit: 87051.8064

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 83763.4774 - 84703 = -939.5226

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 84703 - 87051.8064 = -2348.8064

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -2348.8064 / -939.5226 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
721.2429 100 0.008515 7.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -939.5226

Taille de position = 8 / -939.5226 = -0.01

Taille de position USD = -0.01 x 84703 = -847.03

Donc, tu peux acheter -0.01 avec un stoploss a 83763.4774

Avec un position size USD de -847.03$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -0.01 x -939.5226 = 9.4

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 9.4$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -0.01 x -2348.8064 = 23.49

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 23.49$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -0.01
  • Taille de position USD -847.03
  • Perte potentielle 9.4
  • Gain potentiel 23.49
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.77 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
1.11 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
10.01 $ 1.39
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.3022 % 27.24 % 26
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
84703 83763.4774 87051.8064 2.5 77584
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 84703
  • Stop Loss: 83763.4774
  • Take Profit: 87051.8064

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 83763.4774 - 84703 = -939.5226

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 84703 - 87051.8064 = -2348.8064

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -2348.8064 / -939.5226 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.109% (939.5226)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.646% 0.6R -0.083% 0.1R 7.8× 12
2h +0.646% 0.6R -0.207% 0.2R 3.1× 24
4h +0.646% 0.6R -0.302% 0.3R 2.1× 48
8h +0.646% 0.6R -0.302% 0.3R 2.1× 96
12h ★ +2.563% 2.3R -0.302% 0.3R 8.5× 144
24h +2.989% 2.7R -0.302% 0.3R 9.9× 288
36h +2.989% 2.7R -1.012% 0.9R 3.0× 432
48h +2.989% 2.7R -1.012% 0.9R 3.0× 576
72h +2.989% 2.7R -1.012% 0.9R 3.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 1097 min MAE in 1472 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.