Short Trade on LIT

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01 Oct 2026 at 23:30:10 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (momentum_pullback_v1)

With 136.75 LIT at 3.778$ per unit. Take profit: 3.7108 (1.78 %) & Stop Loss: 3.8366 (1.55 %)

LIT SHORT momentum_pullback_v1 hyperliquid 01 Oct 2026 23:30 → 00:20 · 49 minutes

Position

Entry 3.7781$

Qty 136.7521 LIT

Size 516.6632$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)

Risk Setup

TP 3.7108 (+1.78%)

TP $ 9.2$

SL 3.8366 (-1.55%)

SL $ 8$

RR 1.15

Status loss PnL -1.55% / -8$ MAE -3.25% MFE +4.11% 2.7R expires 02 Oct 11:30

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 171206)

#77 / 78

seuil : top 15
score du 01/10/2026 23:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0033

Quality Score

0.345

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#77 / 78

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

1.55 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#77 / 78

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

99 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

1.55 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.63×ATR
4h	near	0.36×ATR
1d	clear	3.22×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↑ up	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_pullback_v1 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

alts

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_pullback_v1 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

0.99

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

28.7M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
01/10 23:17

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/10 22:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

01/10 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

01/10 22:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4614

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	range

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 76.1%

Macro broad_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	30.0%
1h	55.0%
4h	86.7%
24h	36.7%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	25.0%	-0.12%
4h	65.0%	+0.99%
24h	18.3%	-0.43%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.126

Universe : 60 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 1.00

Snapshot évalué : 01/10 23:16 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3261

Score SMA

0.4613

Rank

#75 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0263

Rank Norm SMA

0.0850

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3555	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.67% · r3d: -14.30% · ema21_slope: 0.1503% · dist_ema21: -13.809%
Force Relative	25%	0.1798	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.14% · rs_3d: -15.96% · beta_24h: 0.465
Volume	20%	0.2937	rvol_20: 0.59× · zscore_50: -0.599 · trend: 39.56%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7715	ADX: 39.3 (trend) · Chop: 45.1 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 12.306% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 23:00

Score brut

0.3450

Score SMA

0.4385

Rank

#77 / 78

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0033

Rank Norm SMA

0.1644

Calculé le

01/10/2026 23:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2980	r1h: 0.150% · r4h: 0.224% · r1d: -3.83% · r3d: -12.24% · ema21_slope: -0.1849% · dist_ema21: -1.832%
Force Relative	25%	0.2880	rs_1h: -0.188% · rs_4h: -0.305% · rs_1d: -5.86% · rs_3d: -14.94% · beta_24h: 2.322
Volume	20%	0.1327	rvol_20: 0.33× · zscore_50: -1.010 · trend: -74.41%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4450	ADX: 15.8 (weak) · Chop: 61.2 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.908% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.2428

Score SMA

0.3697

Rank

#77 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0066

Rank Norm SMA

0.0472

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.1374	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.518% · r1d: -3.67% · r3d: -14.30% · ema21_slope: -0.7669% · dist_ema21: -7.087%
Force Relative	25%	0.1280	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.771% · rs_1d: -5.14% · rs_3d: -15.96% · beta_24h: 2.368
Volume	20%	0.1919	rvol_20: 0.43× · zscore_50: -0.365 · trend: -37.80%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7799	ADX: 38.6 (trend) · Chop: 43.3 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.1419	ATR%: 5.574% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.548% (0.0585)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.998%	0.6R	-2.435%	1.6R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.998%	0.6R	-2.435%	1.6R	0.4×	24
4h	+0.998%	0.6R	-3.234%	2.1R	0.3×	48
8h	+0.998%	0.6R	-3.245%	2.1R	0.3×	96
12h ★	+4.108%	2.7R	-3.245%	2.1R	1.3×	144
24h	+8.001%	5.2R	-3.245%	2.1R	2.5×	288
48h	+9.497%	6.1R	-3.245%	2.1R	2.9×	576
72h	+9.497%	6.1R	-3.245%	2.1R	2.9×	864

⏱ MFE in 1439 min MAE in 304 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 1.51

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	expansion	bull_high	51%	noisy_chop 36%	mid	—	—	—	bull_high	+13.92%	-0.98	30/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 38%	mid	near 0.4ATR	—	0.34	bull_high	+2.78%	-0.91	01/10 16:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	fading	compression	bear_high	53%	noisy_chop 40%	mid	—	—	0.35	bull_medium	+1.41%	-0.65	01/10 22:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_medium	58%	noisy_chop 35%	early	—	—	0.27	bull_low_confirmed	+1.09%	+0.03	01/10 23:00
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197722	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	0.460	expansion	bull_high	51%	noisy_chop 36%	mid 7b -1.3ATR	—	—	0.59	68%	↑ +0.26	above_value	-1.67	—	#105840	—	bull_high	+13.92%	-0.98	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:27
4h #197636	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.408	expansion	bear_high	54%	noisy_chop 38%	mid 12b -1.1ATR	near 0.4ATR	—	0.43	44%	↓ -0.15	above_value	-1.67	—	#105840	0.34	bull_high	+2.78%	-0.91	01/10 16:00 upd 01/10 20:23
1h anchor #198802	↓ down	range	range	moderate	fading	0.645	compression	bear_high	53%	noisy_chop 40%	mid 10b -1.1ATR	—	—	0.33	11%	↓ -0.26	above_value	-2.05	—	#106384	0.35	bull_medium	+1.41%	-0.65	01/10 22:00 upd 01/10 23:12
15m #198882	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.473	compression	bear_medium	58%	noisy_chop 35%	early 6b 0.2ATR	—	—	1.36	25%	↓ -0.50	above_value	-2.05	—	#106384	0.27	bull_low_confirmed	+1.09%	+0.03	01/10 23:00 upd 01/10 23:18
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	7b	—	3.789×ATR	p50	-1.295×ATR	p69
4h	↑ up	mid	12b	—	0.905×ATR	p0	-1.075×ATR	p63
1h	↓ down	mid	10b	—	2.478×ATR	p49	-1.071×ATR	p62
15m	↑ up	early	6b	—	1.474×ATR	p0	+0.222×ATR	p11

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_pullback_v1 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 3.8366
tp_price: 3.71080333
atr: 0.02691867
expires_at: 2026-10-02T15:30:10+00:00

Details

rank: 78
total: 79
score: 0.2832
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0049
rank_velocity: 0.0079
pullback_depth_atr: 3.41
trigger_price: 3.7791
fip_24h: 0
confidence: 0.987
market_structures
market_structures
15m_version: 1.1

15m_market_structure:

market_structures
1H_version: 1.1

1H_market_structure:

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 2

15M - downtrend

Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5

Market Structure Features:

Trend State

-1

Dist From Last High Pct

-1.46%

Dist From Last Low Pct

0.05%

Bars Since Swing High

1 bars

Bars Since Swing Low

0 bars

Last Swing Amplitude Pct

1.53%

Bos Up

Bos Down

Choch Up

Choch Down

SL & TP Pivot Distance:

SL to Pivot Distance

0.1491

3.89%

TP to Pivot Distance

0.0339

0.91%

DateTime	Price	Type
2026-10-01 10:15:00	3.93	↓ Low
2026-10-01 13:30:00	3.8408	↓ Low
2026-10-01 15:30:00	3.8484	↓ Low
2026-10-01 16:15:00	3.9857	↑ High
2026-10-01 17:45:00	3.9702	↑ High
2026-10-01 21:30:00	3.7447	↓ Low
2026-10-01 23:30:00	3.8366	↑ High
2026-10-02 01:30:00	3.7791	↓ Low
2026-10-02 03:00:00	3.8339	↑ High
2026-10-02 03:15:00	3.7763	↓ Low

1H - downtrend

Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5

Market Structure Features:

Trend State

-1

Dist From Last High Pct

-7.36%

Dist From Last Low Pct

1.79%

Bars Since Swing High

24 bars

Bars Since Swing Low

6 bars

Last Swing Amplitude Pct

2.57%

Bos Up

Bos Down

Choch Up

Choch Down

SL & TP Pivot Distance:

SL to Pivot Distance

0.7991

20.83%

TP to Pivot Distance

0.0608

1.64%

DateTime	Price	Type
2026-09-29 05:00:00	4.3	↓ Low
2026-09-29 14:00:00	4.5735	↑ High
2026-09-29 17:00:00	4.3638	↓ Low
2026-09-29 23:00:00	4.6357	↑ High
2026-09-30 05:00:00	3.65	↓ Low
2026-09-30 16:00:00	4.131	↑ High
2026-09-30 19:00:00	3.8107	↓ Low
2026-10-01 03:00:00	4.1143	↑ High
2026-10-01 13:00:00	3.8408	↓ Low
2026-10-01 21:00:00	3.7447	↓ Low

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.7781	3.8366	3.7108	1.15	3.4314

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.7781
Stop Loss: 3.8366
Take Profit: 3.7108

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 3.8366 - 3.7781 = 0.0585
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.7781 - 3.7108 = 0.0673
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0673 / 0.0585 = 1.1504

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
516.6632	100	136.7521	5.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.0585

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0585 = 136.75

Taille de position USD = 136.75 x 3.7781 = 516.66

Donc, tu peux acheter 136.75 avec un stoploss a 3.8366

Avec un position size USD de 516.66$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 136.75 x 0.0585 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 136.75 x 0.0673 = 9.2

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 9.2$

Résumé

Taille de position 136.75
Taille de position USD 516.66
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 9.2
Risk-Reward Ratio 1.1504

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
1.78 %	9.2 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
1.55 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-8 $	-1.55

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-1.6331 %	105.47 %	6

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
3.7781	3.8366	3.7108	1.15	3.4314

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 3.7781
Stop Loss: 3.8366
Take Profit: 3.7108

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 3.8366 - 3.7781 = 0.0585
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 3.7781 - 3.7108 = 0.0673
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0673 / 0.0585 = 1.1504

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 3.7108
            [entry_price] => 3.7781
            [stop_loss] => 3.84245
            [rr_ratio] => 1.05
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 04:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 3.7108
            [entry_price] => 3.7781
            [stop_loss] => 3.8483
            [rr_ratio] => 0.96
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 04:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 3.7108
            [entry_price] => 3.7781
            [stop_loss] => 3.85415
            [rr_ratio] => 0.88
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 04:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 3.7108
            [entry_price] => 3.7781
            [stop_loss] => 3.86585
            [rr_ratio] => 0.77
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 04:25:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.548% (0.0585)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.998%	0.6R	-2.435%	1.6R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.998%	0.6R	-2.435%	1.6R	0.4×	24
4h	+0.998%	0.6R	-3.234%	2.1R	0.3×	48
8h	+0.998%	0.6R	-3.245%	2.1R	0.3×	96
12h ★	+4.108%	2.7R	-3.245%	2.1R	1.3×	144
24h	+8.001%	5.2R	-3.245%	2.1R	2.5×	288
48h	+9.497%	6.1R	-3.245%	2.1R	2.9×	576
72h	+9.497%	6.1R	-3.245%	2.1R	2.9×	864

⏱ MFE in 1439 min MAE in 304 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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