Long Trade on AR (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 68.32 AR at 4.379$ per unit. Take profit: 4.6715 (6.68 %) & Stop Loss: 4.2617 (2.67 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 01:10:25
hyperliquid
AR
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 01:10
→ 13:00
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 4.3788$
Qty 68.3244 AR
Size 299.1787$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 4.6715 (+6.68%)
TP $ 20$
SL 4.2617 (-2.67%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.72%
/ -2.15$
MAE -1.77%
MFE +1.97%
0.7R
expires
02 Oct 13:10
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 171406)
#45 / 75
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 01:00
score du 02/10/2026 01:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6975
Quality Score
0.526
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#45 / 75
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.67 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#45 / 75
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.67 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 6.67×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.35×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.09×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 01:01
02/10 01:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 01/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 01/10 23:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4621
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bull
0.55 |
mature
+1 |
| Micro |
bull
0.90 |
mature
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
78.3%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 51.7% |
| 1h | 96.7% |
| 4h | 95.0% |
| 24h | 56.7% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 51.7% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 46.7% | +1.94% |
| 24h | 16.7% | +0.30% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.183
Universe :
60
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 01:01
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5815
Score SMA
0.6164
Rank
#27
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6579
Rank Norm SMA
0.5203
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7563 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 4.60% · r3d: -0.47% · ema21_slope: 2.4700% · dist_ema21: 9.635% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6141 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 3.13% · rs_3d: -2.12% · beta_24h: 2.393 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3307 | rvol_20: 0.60× · zscore_50: 0.090 · trend: 31.24% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8994 | ADX: 47.9 (trend) · Chop: 32.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 10.855% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.5262
Score SMA
0.5189
Rank
#45
/ 75
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6975
Rank Norm SMA
0.4209
Calculé le
02/10/2026 01:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6559 | r1h: 1.885% · r4h: 2.077% · r1d: 7.01% · r3d: 4.62% · ema21_slope: 0.0190% · dist_ema21: 1.970% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5735 | rs_1h: 0.544% · rs_4h: -0.139% · rs_1d: 4.00% · rs_3d: 0.46% · beta_24h: 1.497 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1995 | rvol_20: 0.60× · zscore_50: -0.244 · trend: -54.50% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4137 | ADX: 12.9 (weak) · Chop: 62.2 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.741% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4510
Score SMA
0.4842
Rank
#55
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3401
Rank Norm SMA
0.2781
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5511 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.151% · r1d: 4.05% · r3d: 2.85% · ema21_slope: -0.1633% · dist_ema21: 0.131% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4787 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.608% · rs_1d: 1.96% · rs_3d: -0.10% · beta_24h: 2.669 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1863 | rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: -0.552 · trend: -42.65% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4566 | ADX: 14.9 (weak) · Chop: 58.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.6024 | ATR%: 4.193% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.674%
(0.1171)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.279% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.969% | 0.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.969% | 0.7R | -0.480% | 0.2R | 4.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.969% | 0.7R | -0.726% | 0.3R | 2.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.969% | 0.7R | -1.768% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.969% | 0.7R | -6.109% | 2.3R | 0.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.165% | 3.4R | -6.109% | 2.3R | 1.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.165% | 3.4R | -6.109% | 2.3R | 1.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.165% | 3.4R | -6.109% | 2.3R | 1.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1759 min
MAE in 804 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.38
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
63%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early | — | — | 0.55 | bull_high | +13.92% | +1.00 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | near -1.9ATR | — | 0.32 | bull_high | +3.48% | +0.00 | 01/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | range_high |
45%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.24 | bull_medium | +1.75% | +0.25 | 01/10 23:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | — | — | 0.54 | bull_low_confirmed | +2.45% | -0.04 | 02/10 00:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197645
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.827 | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
63%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early 11b 0.6ATR | — | — | 0.60 | 90% | ↑ +0.74 | above_value | -0.13 | — | #105804 | 0.55 | bull_high | +13.92% | +1.00 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:23
|
|
4h
#199196
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.639 | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early 8b 0.0ATR | near -1.9ATR | — | 0.58 | 63% | ↑ +0.17 | above_value | -0.06 | — | #106506 | 0.32 | bull_high | +3.48% | +0.00 |
01/10 20:00
upd 02/10 00:15
|
|
1h
anchor #199195
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.639 | compression | range_high |
45%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early 8b 0.2ATR | — | — | 0.22 | 8% | ↓ -0.79 | above_value | -0.06 | — | #106506 | 0.24 | bull_medium | +1.75% | +0.25 |
01/10 23:00
upd 02/10 00:15
|
|
15m
#199544
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.600 | normal | bull_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid 3b 1.9ATR | — | — | 0.41 | 30% | ↓ -0.45 | above_value | -0.06 | — | #106506 | 0.54 | bull_low_confirmed | +2.45% | -0.04 |
02/10 00:45
upd 02/10 01:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 11b | — | 2.104×ATR | p0 | +0.563×ATR | p37 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 8b | — | 1.546×ATR | p0 | +0.033×ATR | p2 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 8b | — | 1.576×ATR | p5 | +0.191×ATR | p13 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 3b | — | 3.05×ATR | p64 | +1.926×ATR | p80 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.841
- reason: up_bo width=2.54×ATR dur=69b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 4.26171144
- tp_price: 4.67152139
- atr:
- score: 0.84100407759866
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T17:10:17.554675
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84100407759866
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1171
- obi_top10 : 0.1445
- micro_price : 4.37793234
- spread_pct : 0.091429
- mid_price : 4.377
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 4.39
- ask_wall_size : 13506.36
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1221
- obi_top5_std : 0.0182
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7039
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
4.3603
- balance_zone_bottom:
4.1775
- balance_zone_mid:
4.2689
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790672400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790917200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.5429
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
69
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.841
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790913600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
4.3603
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6087
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2574
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
11
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 0.07188556 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
69
inside_close_ratio
0.6087
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2574
Signaux confirmants (10)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:10 | 4.37880000 | 0% |
| 2 | 01:22 | 4.37880000 | 0% |
| 3 | 01:34 | 4.37880000 | 0% |
| 4 | 01:46 | 4.41590000 | +0.847% |
| 5 | 01:58 | 4.41590000 | +0.847% |
| 6 | 02:13 | 4.40770000 | +0.66% |
| 7 | 02:26 | 4.40770000 | +0.66% |
| 8 | 02:38 | 4.39700000 | +0.416% |
| 9 | 02:49 | 4.39700000 | +0.416% |
| 10 | 03:01 | 4.39700000 | +0.416% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7039ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.117
avg 0.122
± 0.018
OBI Top 10
0.145
Microstructure
Mid Price
4.3770
Micro Price
4.3779
Spread
0.0914%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
4.3900
Size
13,506.36
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3788 | 4.2617 | 4.6715 | 2.5 | 3.1919 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 4.3788
- Stop Loss: 4.2617
- Take Profit: 4.6715
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 4.2617 - 4.3788 = -0.1171
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 4.3788 - 4.6715 = -0.2927
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.2927 / -0.1171 = 2.4996
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 299.1787 | 100 | 68.3244 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.1171
Taille de position = 8 / -0.1171 = -68.32
Taille de position USD = -68.32 x 4.3788 = -299.16
Donc, tu peux acheter -68.32 avec un stoploss a 4.2617
Avec un position size USD de -299.16$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -68.32 x -0.1171 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -68.32 x -0.2927 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position -68.32
- Taille de position USD -299.16
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4996
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.68 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.67 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -2.15 $ | -0.72 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.7676 % | 66.1 % | 22 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3788 | 4.2617 | 4.6715 | 2.5 | 3.1919 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 4.3788
- Stop Loss: 4.2617
- Take Profit: 4.6715
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 4.2617 - 4.3788 = -0.1171
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 4.3788 - 4.6715 = -0.2927
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.2927 / -0.1171 = 2.4996
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.674%
(0.1171)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.279% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.969% | 0.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.969% | 0.7R | -0.480% | 0.2R | 4.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.969% | 0.7R | -0.726% | 0.3R | 2.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.969% | 0.7R | -1.768% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.969% | 0.7R | -6.109% | 2.3R | 0.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +9.165% | 3.4R | -6.109% | 2.3R | 1.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +9.165% | 3.4R | -6.109% | 2.3R | 1.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.165% | 3.4R | -6.109% | 2.3R | 1.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1759 min
MAE in 804 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.