Long Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 651.35 JUP at 0.339$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3699 (9.05 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3269 (3.63 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 01:08:57
hyperliquid
JUP
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 01:08
→ 10:55
· 9 hours
Position
Entry 0.3392$
Qty 651.3454 JUP
Size 220.9168$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3699 (+9.05%)
TP $ 20$
SL 0.3269 (-3.63%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-3.63%
/ -8.01$
MAE -3.89%
MFE +0.00%
0.0R
expires
02 Oct 13:08
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 171399)
#49 / 75
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 01:00
score du 02/10/2026 01:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6165
Quality Score
0.519
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#49 / 75
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.63 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#49 / 75
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.63 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.77×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 3.10×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
6.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 01:01
02/10 01:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 01/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 01/10 23:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4621
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bull
0.55 |
mature
+1 |
| Micro |
bull
0.90 |
mature
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
78.3%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 51.7% |
| 1h | 96.7% |
| 4h | 95.0% |
| 24h | 56.7% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 51.7% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 46.7% | +1.94% |
| 24h | 16.7% | +0.30% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.183
Universe :
60
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 01:01
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5977
Score SMA
0.6999
Rank
#23
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7105
Rank Norm SMA
0.7515
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7886 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.20% · r3d: -0.55% · ema21_slope: 2.0491% · dist_ema21: 9.789% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6209 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.67% · rs_3d: -2.20% · beta_24h: 1.356 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3718 | rvol_20: 0.76× · zscore_50: 0.024 · trend: 46.28% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8769 | ADX: 45.2 (trend) · Chop: 35.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.465% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.5190
Score SMA
0.5564
Rank
#49
/ 75
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6165
Rank Norm SMA
0.5260
Calculé le
02/10/2026 01:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7112 | r1h: 2.411% · r4h: 3.443% · r1d: 2.85% · r3d: 6.12% · ema21_slope: 0.1304% · dist_ema21: 3.750% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5844 | rs_1h: 1.070% · rs_4h: 1.227% · rs_1d: -0.17% · rs_3d: 1.96% · beta_24h: 2.483 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2220 | rvol_20: 0.68× · zscore_50: -0.120 · trend: -49.02% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6076 | ADX: 13.3 (weak) · Chop: 38.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.711% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4747
Score SMA
0.5954
Rank
#44
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4181
Rank Norm SMA
0.6089
Calculé le
02/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6281 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 2.037% · r1d: 0.20% · r3d: 2.89% · ema21_slope: -0.0810% · dist_ema21: 1.314% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5487 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.278% · rs_1d: -1.88% · rs_3d: -0.06% · beta_24h: 2.293 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1631 | rvol_20: 0.31× · zscore_50: -0.700 · trend: -42.70% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3113 | ADX: 11.8 (weak) · Chop: 73.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.6974 | ATR%: 3.908% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.626%
(0.0123)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.285% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.376% | 0.7R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.160% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.349% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.892% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -10.277% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -10.277% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -10.277% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -10.277% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 864 |
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bull_high_confirmed |
69%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.59 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.96 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 31% | mid | — | — | 0.47 | bull_high | +3.48% | -0.11 | 01/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | normal | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | — | near -0.8ATR | 0.54 | bull_medium | +1.75% | +0.07 | 01/10 23:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | volatile_reversal | bull_high |
49%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | near -1.0ATR | 0.61 | bull_low_confirmed | +2.45% | +0.26 | 02/10 00:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197619
|
↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.692 | expansion_after_compression | bull_high_confirmed |
69%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid 15b 0.9ATR | — | — | 0.76 | 89% | ↑ +0.69 | above_value | -0.08 | — | #105797 | 0.59 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.96 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:22
|
|
4h
#199182
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.710 | compression | bull_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 31% | mid 25b 0.4ATR | — | — | 0.31 | 30% | ↓ -0.40 | value | +1.14 | — | #106499 | 0.47 | bull_high | +3.48% | -0.11 |
01/10 20:00
upd 02/10 00:14
|
|
1h
anchor #199181
|
↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | 0.672 | normal | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid 6b 0.9ATR | — | near -0.8ATR | 0.09 | 1% | ↓ -0.30 | value | +1.14 | — | #106499 | 0.54 | bull_medium | +1.75% | +0.07 |
01/10 23:00
upd 02/10 00:14
|
|
15m
#199537
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.485 | volatile_reversal | bull_high |
49%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late 5b 3.4ATR | — | near -1.0ATR | 3.78 | 91% | ↓ -0.27 | value | +1.14 | — | #106499 | 0.61 | bull_low_confirmed | +2.45% | +0.26 |
02/10 00:45
upd 02/10 01:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | mid | 15b | — | 4.297×ATR | p52 | +0.926×ATR | p60 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 25b | — | 3.292×ATR | p50 | +0.376×ATR | p30 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 6b | — | 2.13×ATR | p48 | +0.921×ATR | p62 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 4.403×ATR | p84 | +3.408×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8253
- reason: up_bo width=2.11×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.32688773
- tp_price: 0.36987569
- atr:
- score: 0.82533830788365
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T17:08:49.793242
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82533830788365
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.028
- obi_top10 : 0.0485
- micro_price : 0.33971823
- spread_pct : 0.058875
- mid_price : 0.3398
- bid_wall_price : 0.338
- bid_wall_size : 428628
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.343
- ask_wall_size : 337050.8
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0277
- obi_top5_std : 0.0025
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6959
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.33334
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.321555
- balance_zone_mid:
0.3274475
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790751600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790917200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.1053
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
47
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8253
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790913600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.33334
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8085
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.0415
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
11
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 0.00559774 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
47
inside_close_ratio
0.8085
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0415
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:08 | 0.33917000 | -0.009% |
| 2 | 01:20 | 0.33917000 | -0.009% |
| 3 | 01:32 | 0.33917000 | -0.009% |
| 4 | 01:45 | 0.33466000 | -1.338% |
| 5 | 01:57 | 0.33466000 | -1.338% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6959ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
83%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.028
avg -0.028
± 0.003
OBI Top 10
0.049
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.3398
Micro Price
0.3397
Spread
0.0589%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.3380
Size
428,628.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.3430
Size
337,050.80
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3392 | 0.3269 | 0.3699 | 2.5 | 0.2435 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3392
- Stop Loss: 0.3269
- Take Profit: 0.3699
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3269 - 0.3392 = -0.0123
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3392 - 0.3699 = -0.0307
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0307 / -0.0123 = 2.4959
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 220.9168 | 100 | 651.3454 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.0123
Taille de position = 8 / -0.0123 = -650.41
Taille de position USD = -650.41 x 0.3392 = -220.62
Donc, tu peux acheter -650.41 avec un stoploss a 0.3269
Avec un position size USD de -220.62$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -650.41 x -0.0123 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -650.41 x -0.0307 = 19.97
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$
Résumé
- Taille de position -650.41
- Taille de position USD -220.62
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.97
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4959
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.05 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.63 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -3.63 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8208 % | 105.37 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3392 | 0.3269 | 0.3699 | 2.5 | 0.2435 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3392
- Stop Loss: 0.3269
- Take Profit: 0.3699
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3269 - 0.3392 = -0.0123
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3392 - 0.3699 = -0.0307
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0307 / -0.0123 = 2.4959
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.626%
(0.0123)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.285% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.376% | 0.7R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.160% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.349% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.892% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -10.277% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -10.277% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -10.277% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -10.277% | 2.8R | 0.0× | 864 |
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
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