Long Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1.03 TAO at 313.06$ per unit. Take profit: 332.4223 (6.18 %) & Stop Loss: 305.3151 (2.47 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 05:11:22
hyperliquid
TAO
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 05:11
→ 13:35
· 8 hours
Position
Entry 313.06$
Qty 1.0329 TAO
Size 323.3707$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 332.4223 (+6.18%)
TP $ 20$
SL 305.3151 (-2.47%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.47%
/ -8$
MAE -9.95%
MFE +1.19%
0.5R
expires
02 Oct 17:11
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 171790)
#48 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 05:00
score du 02/10/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4088
Quality Score
0.507
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#48 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.47 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#48 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.47 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.81×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.92×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.36×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
14.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 05:01
02/10 05:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 02/10 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 02/10 04:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4637
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
bull
0.90 |
transition
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
66.7%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 21.3% |
| 1h | 60.7% |
| 4h | 49.2% |
| 24h | 73.8% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 18.0% | -0.06% |
| 4h | 59.0% | -0.01% |
| 24h | 32.8% | +2.15% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.173
Universe :
61
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 05:01
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5543
Score SMA
0.6266
Rank
#38
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5132
Rank Norm SMA
0.5473
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7913 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.83% · r3d: -1.55% · ema21_slope: 1.5204% · dist_ema21: 7.037% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5948 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.64% · rs_3d: -3.20% · beta_24h: 2.307 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2429 | rvol_20: 0.40× · zscore_50: -0.555 · trend: 9.93% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7975 | ADX: 35.7 (trend) · Chop: 36.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.232% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.5067
Score SMA
0.5365
Rank
#48
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4088
Rank Norm SMA
0.5035
Calculé le
02/10/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5618 | r1h: 0.769% · r4h: 0.067% · r1d: 1.62% · r3d: -0.80% · ema21_slope: 0.0614% · dist_ema21: 1.869% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4866 | rs_1h: 0.610% · rs_4h: 0.545% · rs_1d: -1.59% · rs_3d: -3.64% · beta_24h: 1.591 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3342 | rvol_20: 1.12× · zscore_50: -0.112 · trend: -18.13% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4448 | ADX: 12.8 (weak) · Chop: 58.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.487% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.4691
Score SMA
0.5434
Rank
#64
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2468
Rank Norm SMA
0.4616
Calculé le
02/10/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6006 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.959% · r1d: 1.77% · r3d: -1.07% · ema21_slope: -0.0387% · dist_ema21: 1.390% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4669 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.263% · rs_1d: -1.46% · rs_3d: -3.62% · beta_24h: 1.982 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2022 | rvol_20: 0.80× · zscore_50: -0.698 · trend: -53.50% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2390 | ADX: 11.0 (weak) · Chop: 81.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9595 | ATR%: 3.122% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.474%
(7.7449)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.431% | 0.2R | -0.601% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.431% | 0.2R | -1.000% | 0.4R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.431% | 0.2R | -1.818% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -2.035% | 0.8R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 263 min
MAE in 573 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.77
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
69%
|
noisy_chop 44% | early | — | near -0.4ATR | 0.64 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.92 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | — | 0.53 | bull_high | +4.12% | -0.23 | 02/10 00:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | normal | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | bull_medium | +2.38% | +0.05 | 02/10 04:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bull_medium |
61%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | near 0.3ATR | 0.74 | bull_low | +1.45% | +0.09 | 02/10 04:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197642
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.607 | expansion | bull_high |
69%
|
noisy_chop 44% | early 15b 0.7ATR | — | near -0.4ATR | 0.40 | 56% | ↑ +0.70 | above_value | -0.23 | — | #105803 | 0.64 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.92 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:23
|
|
4h
#200798
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.615 | compression | bull_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early 34b 0.5ATR | — | — | 0.80 | 52% | ↓ -0.51 | value | +1.19 | — | #107204 | 0.53 | bull_high | +4.12% | -0.23 |
02/10 00:00
upd 02/10 04:14
|
|
1h
anchor #201220
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.460 | normal | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid 10b 1.4ATR | — | — | 1.12 | 36% | ↓ -0.22 | value | +1.70 | — | #107438 | 0.58 | bull_medium | +2.38% | +0.05 |
02/10 04:00
upd 02/10 05:10
|
|
15m
#201147
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.670 | normal | bull_medium |
61%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late 5b 1.5ATR | — | near 0.3ATR | 0.69 | 62% | ↓ -0.27 | value | +1.19 | — | #107204 | 0.74 | bull_low | +1.45% | +0.09 |
02/10 04:45
upd 02/10 05:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 15b | — | 4.107×ATR | p48 | +0.748×ATR | p38 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 34b | — | 3.178×ATR | p27 | +0.497×ATR | p27 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 10b | — | 2.778×ATR | p71 | +1.381×ATR | p75 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 2.818×ATR | p59 | +1.533×ATR | p84 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8848
- reason: up_bo width=2.63×ATR dur=58b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 305.31507978
- tp_price: 332.42230056
- atr:
- score: 0.8847664117412
- expires_at: 2026-10-02T21:11:14.484892
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.8847664117412
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.072
- obi_top10 : -0.0057
- micro_price : 313.58730216
- spread_pct : 0.022323
- mid_price : 313.615
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0974
- obi_top5_std : 0.0256
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6892
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
311.58
- balance_zone_bottom:
299.935
- balance_zone_mid:
305.7575
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790726400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790931600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.6321
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
58
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8848
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790928000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
311.58
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9138
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3345
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
18
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 4.42420222 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
58
inside_close_ratio
0.9138
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3345
Signaux confirmants (16)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:11 | 313.06000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 05:22 | 313.06000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 05:33 | 313.06000000 | 0% |
| 4 | 05:45 | 312.30000000 | -0.243% |
| 5 | 05:56 | 312.30000000 | -0.243% |
| 6 | 06:10 | 312.14000000 | -0.294% |
| 7 | 06:22 | 312.14000000 | -0.294% |
| 8 | 06:33 | 312.14000000 | -0.294% |
| 9 | 06:44 | 312.08000000 | -0.313% |
| 10 | 06:55 | 312.08000000 | -0.313% |
| 11 | 09:09 | 313.36000000 | +0.096% |
| 12 | 09:20 | 313.36000000 | +0.096% |
| 13 | 09:30 | 313.36000000 | +0.096% |
| 14 | 09:41 | 315.36000000 | +0.735% |
| 15 | 09:51 | 315.36000000 | +0.735% |
| 16 | 10:03 | 315.36000000 | +0.735% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6892ms
Confidence avant OB :
88%
→
88%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.072
avg -0.097
± 0.026
OBI Top 10
-0.006
Microstructure
Mid Price
313.6150
Micro Price
313.5873
Spread
0.0223%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 313.06 | 305.3151 | 332.4223 | 2.5 | 218.46 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 313.06
- Stop Loss: 305.3151
- Take Profit: 332.4223
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 305.3151 - 313.06 = -7.7449
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 313.06 - 332.4223 = -19.3623
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -19.3623 / -7.7449 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 323.3707 | 100 | 1.0329 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -7.7449
Taille de position = 8 / -7.7449 = -1.03
Taille de position USD = -1.03 x 313.06 = -322.45
Donc, tu peux acheter -1.03 avec un stoploss a 305.3151
Avec un position size USD de -322.45$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -1.03 x -7.7449 = 7.98
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.98$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -1.03 x -19.3623 = 19.94
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.94$
Résumé
- Taille de position -1.03
- Taille de position USD -322.45
- Perte potentielle 7.98
- Gain potentiel 19.94
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.18 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.47 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -2.47 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.6481 % | 107.04 % | 18 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 313.06 | 305.3151 | 332.4223 | 2.5 | 218.46 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 313.06
- Stop Loss: 305.3151
- Take Profit: 332.4223
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 305.3151 - 313.06 = -7.7449
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 313.06 - 332.4223 = -19.3623
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -19.3623 / -7.7449 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.474%
(7.7449)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.431% | 0.2R | -0.601% | 0.2R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.431% | 0.2R | -1.000% | 0.4R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.431% | 0.2R | -1.818% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -2.035% | 0.8R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.195% | 0.5R | -9.950% | 4.0R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 263 min
MAE in 573 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.