02 Oct 2026 at 06:13:26 hyperliquid

Long Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 2662.01 XPL at 0.0992$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1067 (7.59 %) & Stop Loss: 0.09616 (3.04 %)

XPL LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 06:13 → 13:40 · 7 hours

Position

Entry 0.09917$

Qty 2662.0082 XPL

Size 263.9913$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.1067 (+7.59%)

TP $ 20.04$

SL 0.09616 (-3.04%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -3.04% / -8.01$ MAE -9.98% MFE +4.50% 1.5R expires 02 Oct 18:13

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 171889)
#50 / 78
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 06:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3241

Quality Score
0.493
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#50 / 78
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.04 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#50 / 78
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.04 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.03×ATR
4h clear 2.08×ATR
1d near -0.20×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
23.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 06:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : range_high (0)

02/10 00:00

Tactical (1H) : range_high (0)

02/10 05:00

Score : +3 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4641
Voir snapshot →
bull developing bull_expansion
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational bull

0.55

expansion

+1

Tactical bull

0.90

expansion

+1

Micro bull

0.90

expansion

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 62.9%
Macro mixed_dispersion
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : mixed
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 66.1%
1h 41.9%
4h 64.5%
24h 80.7%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 64.5% +0.06%
4h 46.8% +0.43%
24h 38.7% +2.13%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.141
Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 1.00
Snapshot évalué : 02/10 06:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4497
Score SMA
0.5883
Rank
#65 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1579
Rank Norm SMA
0.3978
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5845 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.32% · r3d: -2.19% · ema21_slope: 0.8933% · dist_ema21: 0.215%
Force Relative 25% 0.4075 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.15% · rs_3d: -3.84% · beta_24h: 1.526
Volume 20% 0.4022 rvol_20: 0.81× · zscore_50: 0.261 · trend: 51.36%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6139 ADX: 20.8 (weak) · Chop: 45.5 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 11.560% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 06:00
Score brut
0.4932
Score SMA
0.4858
Rank
#50 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3241
Rank Norm SMA
0.3016
Calculé le
02/10/2026 06:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6009 r1h: 2.138% · r4h: 0.830% · r1d: 2.66% · r3d: -1.58% · ema21_slope: 0.0880% · dist_ema21: 1.696%
Force Relative 25% 0.5517 rs_1h: 1.993% · rs_4h: 0.404% · rs_1d: -0.44% · rs_3d: -4.10% · beta_24h: 1.789
Volume 20% 0.3923 rvol_20: 1.30× · zscore_50: 0.159 · trend: -9.48%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.3977 ADX: 10.9 (weak) · Chop: 62.0 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.757% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.3620
Score SMA
0.4500
Rank
#77 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0195
Rank Norm SMA
0.2048
Calculé le
02/10/2026 04:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4412 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.327% · r1d: 1.27% · r3d: -3.20% · ema21_slope: -0.2555% · dist_ema21: -0.080%
Force Relative 25% 0.3011 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.369% · rs_1d: -1.96% · rs_3d: -5.74% · beta_24h: 2.047
Volume 20% 0.1950 rvol_20: 0.74× · zscore_50: -0.793 · trend: -43.30%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.3994 ADX: 21.6 (weak) · Chop: 72.9 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.5541 ATR%: 4.338% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.035% (0.0030)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.876% 0.6R -0.892% 0.3R 2.1× 12
2h +1.876% 0.6R -1.349% 0.4R 1.4× 24
4h +4.064% 1.3R -1.349% 0.4R 3.0× 48
8h +4.497% 1.5R -3.598% 1.2R 1.3× 96
12h ★ +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 144
24h +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 288
36h +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 432
48h +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 576
72h +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 864
⏱ MFE in 266 min MAE in 511 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.2
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate grind expansion_after_compression bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 39% early — near -0.2ATR 0.54 bull_high +13.92% +0.54 30/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral transition bearish_transition moderate grind compression range_high
36%
noisy_chop 36% early — — 0.48 bull_high +4.12% -0.36 02/10 00:00
1h ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal range_high
37%
noisy_chop 38% mid — near 0.0ATR 0.47 bull_medium +2.47% -0.01 02/10 05:00
15m ↔ neutral range range moderate grind expansion_after_compression bull_high
58%
noisy_chop 40% mid — near 0.4ATR 0.64 bull_low +1.48% -0.00 02/10 05:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#197694
↔ neutral range range moderate grind 0.665 expansion_after_compression bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 39% early 6b 0.0ATR — near -0.2ATR 0.81 88% ↑ +0.84 below_value -8.06 — #105827 0.54 bull_high +13.92% +0.54
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:26
4h
#200863
↔ neutral transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.614 compression range_high
36%
noisy_chop 36% early 9b 0.0ATR — — 0.74 62% ↓ -0.24 above_value +0.06 — #107227 0.48 bull_high +4.12% -0.36
02/10 00:00
upd 02/10 04:17
1h anchor
#201628
↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.673 normal range_high
37%
noisy_chop 38% mid 5b 1.1ATR — near 0.0ATR 1.30 48% ↓ -0.36 above_value +0.34 — #107618 0.47 bull_medium +2.47% -0.01
02/10 05:00
upd 02/10 06:12
15m
#201551
↔ neutral range range moderate grind 0.658 expansion_after_compression bull_high
58%
noisy_chop 40% mid 3b 1.5ATR — near 0.4ATR 0.86 51% ↑ +0.17 above_value -0.17 — #107461 0.64 bull_low +1.48% -0.00
02/10 05:45
upd 02/10 06:04
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 6b — 2.658×ATR p12 +0.016×ATR p1
4h ↑ up early 9b — 1.709×ATR p0 -0.02×ATR p2
1h ↓ down mid 5b — 0.317×ATR p0 +1.064×ATR p68
15m ↑ up mid 3b — 3.161×ATR p62 +1.489×ATR p75

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.7649
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.48×ATR dur=29b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(-0.10)
  4. stop_price: 0.09616475
  5. tp_price: 0.10668312
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.86493714235897
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-02T22:13:18.752651
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.86493714235897
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.0048
  14. obi_top10 : -0.1039
  15. micro_price : 0.09907761
  16. spread_pct : 0.040384
  17. mid_price : 0.09907
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.0986
  19. bid_wall_size : 1714800.2
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.0993
  22. ask_wall_size : 2029793
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.2063
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.1973
  27. pressure_side : ask
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 6820
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.0001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.0984215
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.094245
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.09633325
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790834400
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790935200
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.4787
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    29
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: forming
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8649
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790931600
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.0984215
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.8276
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.4442
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    1
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    1
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    6
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    5
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00168497
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
29
inside_close_ratio
0.8276
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4442

Signaux confirmants (19)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 06:13 0.09917000 0%
2 06:25 0.09917000 0%
3 06:37 0.09931900 +0.15%
4 06:47 0.09931900 +0.15%
5 06:58 0.09931900 +0.15%
6 07:10 0.09877400 -0.399%
7 07:20 0.09877400 -0.399%
8 07:29 0.09877400 -0.399%
9 07:40 0.09928200 +0.113%
10 07:51 0.09928200 +0.113%
11 08:03 0.09928200 +0.113%
12 08:17 0.09845000 -0.726%
13 08:28 0.09845000 -0.726%
14 08:39 0.09952800 +0.361%
15 08:50 0.09952800 +0.361%
16 09:00 0.09952800 +0.361%
17 09:12 0.10009000 +0.928%
18 09:22 0.10009000 +0.928%
19 09:33 0.10009000 +0.928%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↓ ask ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6820ms Confidence avant OB : 86% → 76%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.005
avg -0.206 ± 0.197
OBI Top 10 -0.104

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0991
Micro Price
0.0991
Spread
0.0404%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.0986
Size
1,714,800.20

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.0993
Size
2,029,793.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09917 0.09616 0.1067 2.5 0.0525
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09917
  • Stop Loss: 0.09616
  • Take Profit: 0.1067

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.09616 - 0.09917 = -0.00301

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09917 - 0.1067 = -0.00753

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00753 / -0.00301 = 2.5017

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
263.9913 100 2662.0082 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.00301

Taille de position = 8 / -0.00301 = -2657.81

Taille de position USD = -2657.81 x 0.09917 = -263.58

Donc, tu peux acheter -2657.81 avec un stoploss a 0.09616

Avec un position size USD de -263.58$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -2657.81 x -0.00301 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -2657.81 x -0.00753 = 20.01

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -2657.81
  • Taille de position USD -263.58
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.01
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5017

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
7.59 % 20.04 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.04 % 8.01 $
PNL PNL %
-8.01 $ -3.04
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.4113 % 112.39 % 31
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.09917 0.09616 0.1067 2.5 0.0525
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.09917
  • Stop Loss: 0.09616
  • Take Profit: 0.1067

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.09616 - 0.09917 = -0.00301

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.09917 - 0.1067 = -0.00753

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00753 / -0.00301 = 2.5017

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.035% (0.0030)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.876% 0.6R -0.892% 0.3R 2.1× 12
2h +1.876% 0.6R -1.349% 0.4R 1.4× 24
4h +4.064% 1.3R -1.349% 0.4R 3.0× 48
8h +4.497% 1.5R -3.598% 1.2R 1.3× 96
12h ★ +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 144
24h +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 288
36h +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 432
48h +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 576
72h +4.497% 1.5R -9.981% 3.3R 0.5× 864
⏱ MFE in 266 min MAE in 511 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.