Long Trade on JUP

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02 Oct 2026 at 09:08:28 hyperliquid

Long Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1155.46 JUP at 0.335$ per unit. Take profit: 0.352 (5.17 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3277 (2.09 %)

JUP LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 09:08 → 10:50 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 0.3347$

Qty 1155.4649 JUP

Size 386.6879$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 0.352 (+5.17%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 0.3277 (-2.09%)

SL $ 8.09$

RR 2.47

Status loss PnL -2.09% / -8.09$ MAE -9.07% MFE +0.47% 0.2R expires 02 Oct 21:08

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172173)

#54 / 76

OUT

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 09:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4594

Quality Score

0.507

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#54 / 76

OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

85 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.09 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#54 / 76

OUT

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

85 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

2.09 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	5.57×ATR
4h	clear	3.52×ATR
1d	clear	—

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	mid	OK
4h	↑ up	early	OK
1d	↑ up	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

8.4M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 09:00

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 02/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 02/10 07:00 Score : +5 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

02/10 04:00

Tactical (1H) : range_high (0)

02/10 07:00

Score : +5 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4653

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion +2
Operational	bull 0.90	expansion +1
Tactical	bull 0.90	mature +1
Micro	bull 0.90	expansion

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) +4

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 63.0%

Macro mixed_dispersion

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : mixed

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	58.7%
1h	88.9%
4h	60.3%
24h	87.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	68.3%	+0.07%
4h	41.3%	+0.23%
24h	41.3%	+2.47%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.166

Universe : 63 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 1.00

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 09:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.5977

Score SMA

0.6999

Rank

#23 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.7105

Rank Norm SMA

0.7515

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7886	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.20% · r3d: -0.55% · ema21_slope: 2.0491% · dist_ema21: 9.789%
Force Relative	25%	0.6209	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -2.67% · rs_3d: -2.20% · beta_24h: 1.356
Volume	20%	0.3718	rvol_20: 0.76× · zscore_50: 0.024 · trend: 46.28%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8769	ADX: 45.2 (trend) · Chop: 35.4 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 8.465% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 09:00

Score brut

0.5073

Score SMA

0.5470

Rank

#54 / 76

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4594

Rank Norm SMA

0.5057

Calculé le

02/10/2026 09:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6293	r1h: 1.978% · r4h: 1.524% · r1d: 4.52% · r3d: 1.76% · ema21_slope: 0.1139% · dist_ema21: 1.561%
Force Relative	25%	0.5808	rs_1h: 1.512% · rs_4h: 0.842% · rs_1d: 0.82% · rs_3d: -1.20% · beta_24h: 2.727
Volume	20%	0.9465	rvol_20: 3.66× · zscore_50: 3.012 · trend: 59.91%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5179	ADX: 18.3 (weak) · Chop: 54.8 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.575% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.4140

Score SMA

0.5816

Rank

#66 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2672

Rank Norm SMA

0.5785

Calculé le

02/10/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5351	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.407% · r1d: 1.39% · r3d: -1.50% · ema21_slope: -0.0615% · dist_ema21: -0.059%
Force Relative	25%	0.3988	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.781% · rs_1d: -1.62% · rs_3d: -3.98% · beta_24h: 1.869
Volume	20%	0.1571	rvol_20: 0.31× · zscore_50: -0.722 · trend: -46.05%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3329	ADX: 12.2 (weak) · Chop: 71.4 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.7240	ATR%: 3.828% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.091% (0.0070)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.469%	0.2R	-1.141%	0.6R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.469%	0.2R	-2.561%	1.2R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.469%	0.2R	-2.599%	1.2R	0.2×	48
8h	+0.469%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	96
12h ★	+0.469%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.469%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	288
36h	+0.469%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	432
48h	+0.481%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	576
72h	+1.805%	0.9R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.2×	864

⏱ MFE in 26 min MAE in 336 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.25

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high_confirmed	69%	noisy_chop 41%	mid	—	—	0.59	bull_high	+13.92%	+0.96	30/09 20:00
4h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 32%	early	—	—	0.47	bull_high	+4.41%	-0.23	02/10 04:00
1h	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	range_high	39%	noisy_chop 42%	mid	near -0.6ATR	—	0.56	bull_medium	+2.45%	+0.09	02/10 07:00
15m	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_medium_confirmed	57%	noisy_chop 38%	late	—	near -1.5ATR	0.61	bull_low_confirmed	+1.66%	-0.03	02/10 08:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197619	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.692	expansion_after_compression	bull_high_confirmed	69%	noisy_chop 41%	mid 15b 0.9ATR	—	—	0.76	89%	↑ +0.69	above_value	-0.08	—	#105797	0.59	bull_high	+13.92%	+0.96	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:22
4h #202409	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.669	compression	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 32%	early 5b 0.0ATR	—	—	0.31	25%	↓ -0.26	above_value	-0.24	—	#107899	0.47	bull_high	+4.41%	-0.23	02/10 04:00 upd 02/10 08:14
1h anchor #202406	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.656	compression	range_high	39%	noisy_chop 42%	mid 7b -0.2ATR	near -0.6ATR	—	0.11	2%	↓ -0.64	above_value	-0.24	—	#107899	0.56	bull_medium	+2.45%	+0.09	02/10 07:00 upd 02/10 08:14
15m #202758	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.579	expansion	bull_medium_confirmed	57%	noisy_chop 38%	late 10b 2.2ATR	—	near -1.5ATR	13.30	100%	↑ +0.42	above_value	-0.24	—	#107899	0.61	bull_low_confirmed	+1.66%	-0.03	02/10 08:45 upd 02/10 09:02
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	mid	15b	—	4.297×ATR	p52	+0.926×ATR	p60
4h	↑ up	early	5b	—	1.251×ATR	p0	-0.017×ATR	p2
1h	↓ down	mid	7b	—	2.695×ATR	p66	-0.178×ATR	p16
15m	↑ up	late	10b	—	3.105×ATR	p61	+2.155×ATR	p94

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.847
reason: up_bo width=2.52×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.32773638
tp_price: 0.35196904
atr:
score: 0.84705
expires_at: 2026-10-03T01:08:21.256834
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.84705

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : 0.115
obi_top10 : 0.1137
micro_price : 0.33468743
spread_pct : 0.089713
mid_price : 0.33455
bid_wall_price : 0.333
bid_wall_size : 428822
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 0.336
ask_wall_size : 314150
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 4
obi_top5_mean : 0.1359
obi_top5_std : 0.0148
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 6695
aggregation_tick : 0.001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.334495
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.32197
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.3282325
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790780400
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790946000
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
2.5246
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
47
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.847
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790942400
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.334495
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.8298
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
0.0333
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
6
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
9
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 0.00496116

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.8298

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

0.0333

Signaux confirmants (6)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	09:08	0.33466000	-0.012%
2	09:19	0.33466000	-0.012%
3	09:29	0.33466000	-0.012%
4	09:40	0.33510000	+0.12%
5	09:51	0.33510000	+0.12%
6	10:02	0.33510000	+0.12%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 4 snapshots 6695ms Confidence avant OB : 85% → 85%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.115

avg 0.136 ± 0.015

OBI Top 10 0.114

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.3346

Micro Price

0.3347

Spread

0.0897%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price

0.3330

Size

428,822.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

0.3360

Size

314,150.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.3347	0.3277	0.352	2.47	0.2582

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.3347
Stop Loss: 0.3277
Take Profit: 0.352

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.3277 - 0.3347 = -0.007
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.3347 - 0.352 = -0.0173
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0173 / -0.007 = 2.4714

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
386.6879	100	1155.4649	4.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -0.007

Taille de position = 8 / -0.007 = -1142.86

Taille de position USD = -1142.86 x 0.3347 = -382.52

Donc, tu peux acheter -1142.86 avec un stoploss a 0.3277

Avec un position size USD de -382.52$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -1142.86 x -0.007 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -1142.86 x -0.0173 = 19.77

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.77$

Résumé

Taille de position -1142.86
Taille de position USD -382.52
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 19.77
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4714

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
5.17 %	19.99 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
2.09 %	8.09 $

PNL	PNL %
-8.09 $	-2.09

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.2289 %	106.57 %	3

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.3347	0.3277	0.352	2.47	0.2582

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.3347
Stop Loss: 0.3277
Take Profit: 0.352

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.3277 - 0.3347 = -0.007
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.3347 - 0.352 = -0.0173
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0173 / -0.007 = 2.4714

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.352
            [entry_price] => 0.3347
            [stop_loss] => 0.327
            [rr_ratio] => 2.25
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 14:55:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.352
            [entry_price] => 0.3347
            [stop_loss] => 0.3263
            [rr_ratio] => 2.06
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 14:55:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.352
            [entry_price] => 0.3347
            [stop_loss] => 0.3256
            [rr_ratio] => 1.9
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 17:10:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.352
            [entry_price] => 0.3347
            [stop_loss] => 0.3242
            [rr_ratio] => 1.65
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 17:20:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.091% (0.0070)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.469%	0.2R	-1.141%	0.6R	0.4×	12
2h	+0.469%	0.2R	-2.561%	1.2R	0.2×	24
4h	+0.469%	0.2R	-2.599%	1.2R	0.2×	48
8h	+0.469%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	96
12h ★	+0.469%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	144
24h	+0.469%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	288
36h	+0.469%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	432
48h	+0.481%	0.2R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.1×	576
72h	+1.805%	0.9R	-9.071%	4.3R	0.2×	864

⏱ MFE in 26 min MAE in 336 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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