Long Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 37.47 AVAX at 11.202$ per unit. Take profit: 11.7358 (4.77 %) & Stop Loss: 10.9885 (1.91 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 09:36:32
hyperliquid
AVAX
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 09:36
→ 13:15
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 11.202$
Qty 37.4676 AVAX
Size 419.7121$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 11.7358 (+4.77%)
TP $ 20$
SL 10.9885 (-1.91%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.91%
/ -8$
MAE -6.87%
MFE +0.16%
0.1R
expires
02 Oct 21:36
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 172141)
#57 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 09:00
score du 02/10/2026 09:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2297
Quality Score
0.504
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#57 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#57 / 76
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.28×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.19×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.46×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
20.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 09:30
02/10 09:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 02/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 02/10 08:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4655
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bull
0.90 |
mature
+1 |
| Micro |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
68.3%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 46.8% |
| 1h | 61.3% |
| 4h | 74.2% |
| 24h | 90.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 41.9% | +0.00% |
| 4h | 41.9% | +0.49% |
| 24h | 50.0% | +3.54% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.166
Universe :
62
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 09:31
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6682
Score SMA
0.6479
Rank
#11
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8684
Rank Norm SMA
0.5994
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.8347 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.39% · r3d: 3.62% · ema21_slope: 1.8385% · dist_ema21: 11.044% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6724 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.08% · rs_3d: 1.97% · beta_24h: 0.964 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5768 | rvol_20: 1.39× · zscore_50: 1.083 · trend: 71.77% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8953 | ADX: 47.4 (trend) · Chop: 27.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 6.745% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 09:00
Score brut
0.5043
Score SMA
0.5498
Rank
#57
/ 76
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2297
Rank Norm SMA
0.5473
Calculé le
02/10/2026 09:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5836 | r1h: 1.087% · r4h: 1.278% · r1d: 2.44% · r3d: -4.17% · ema21_slope: 0.0725% · dist_ema21: 1.553% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4632 | rs_1h: 0.621% · rs_4h: 0.596% · rs_1d: -1.26% · rs_3d: -7.13% · beta_24h: 1.451 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2173 | rvol_20: 0.73× · zscore_50: -0.305 · trend: -51.37% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4666 | ADX: 13.9 (weak) · Chop: 56.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.139% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 08:00
Score brut
0.4642
Score SMA
0.5764
Rank
#49
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3530
Rank Norm SMA
0.5963
Calculé le
02/10/2026 08:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5985 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.325% · r1d: 0.77% · r3d: -6.07% · ema21_slope: 0.0120% · dist_ema21: 1.084% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4183 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.050% · rs_1d: -2.24% · rs_3d: -8.54% · beta_24h: 3.264 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1779 | rvol_20: 0.29× · zscore_50: -0.832 · trend: -24.95% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2967 | ADX: 16.7 (weak) · Chop: 80.5 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.961% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.906%
(0.2135)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -1.330% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -1.768% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -2.062% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.161% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.188% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.188% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.188% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1493 min
MAE in 308 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.11
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | near 0.5ATR | 0.72 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.99 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bull_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.53 | bull_high | +4.41% | +0.26 | 02/10 04:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | near -1.3ATR | 0.51 | bull_medium_confirmed | +2.87% | +0.13 | 02/10 08:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | explosive | expansion | bull_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.75 | bull_low | +1.37% | -0.01 | 02/10 09:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197487
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.684 | volatile_reversal | bull_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid 7b 1.1ATR | — | near 0.5ATR | 1.39 | 98% | ↑ +0.79 | above_value | +0.21 | — | #105768 | 0.72 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.99 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:16
|
|
4h
#202345
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.585 | compression | bull_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early 17b 0.4ATR | — | — | 0.29 | 57% | ↓ -0.48 | above_value | +1.34 | — | #107867 | 0.53 | bull_high | +4.41% | +0.26 |
02/10 04:00
upd 02/10 08:12
|
|
1h
anchor #202800
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.581 | compression | bull_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid 5b 1.4ATR | — | near -1.3ATR | 0.73 | 57% | ↓ -0.38 | value | +2.25 | — | #108095 | 0.51 | bull_medium_confirmed | +2.87% | +0.13 |
02/10 08:00
upd 02/10 09:08
|
|
15m
#202957
|
↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | explosive | 0.770 | expansion | bull_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early 3b -0.1ATR | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.17 | 9% | ↓ -0.28 | value | +2.25 | — | #108095 | 0.75 | bull_low | +1.37% | -0.01 |
02/10 09:15
upd 02/10 09:30
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | mid | 7b | — | 1.363×ATR | p0 | +1.072×ATR | p66 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 17b | — | 2.694×ATR | p21 | +0.431×ATR | p26 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 5b | — | 1.927×ATR | p29 | +1.443×ATR | p79 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.858×ATR | p25 | -0.105×ATR | p10 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.9111
- reason: up_bo width=2.99×ATR dur=38b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 10.9884822
- tp_price: 11.73579451
- atr:
- score: 0.91107832895428
- expires_at: 2026-10-03T01:36:24.100080
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.91107832895428
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0289
- obi_top10 : 0.0289
- micro_price : 11.2005
- spread_pct : 0.008929
- mid_price : 11.2005
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0058
- obi_top5_std : 0.0155
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6983
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
11.192
- balance_zone_bottom:
10.8105
- balance_zone_mid:
11.00125
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790812800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790946000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.988
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
38
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.9111
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790942400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
11.192
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8947
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.0783
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 0.12767805 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
38
inside_close_ratio
0.8947
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.0783
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:36 | 11.20200000 | 0% |
| 2 | 09:47 | 11.20200000 | 0% |
| 3 | 09:57 | 11.20200000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6983ms
Confidence avant OB :
91%
→
91%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.029
avg 0.006
± 0.016
OBI Top 10
0.029
Microstructure
Mid Price
11.2005
Micro Price
11.2005
Spread
0.0089%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.202 | 10.9885 | 11.7358 | 2.5 | 8.6211 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.202
- Stop Loss: 10.9885
- Take Profit: 11.7358
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 10.9885 - 11.202 = -0.2135
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.202 - 11.7358 = -0.5338
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.5338 / -0.2135 = 2.5002
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 419.7121 | 100 | 37.4676 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.2135
Taille de position = 8 / -0.2135 = -37.47
Taille de position USD = -37.47 x 11.202 = -419.74
Donc, tu peux acheter -37.47 avec un stoploss a 10.9885
Avec un position size USD de -419.74$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -37.47 x -0.2135 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -37.47 x -0.5338 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position -37.47
- Taille de position USD -419.74
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5002
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.77 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.91 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.91 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.0621 % | 108.2 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.202 | 10.9885 | 11.7358 | 2.5 | 8.6211 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.202
- Stop Loss: 10.9885
- Take Profit: 11.7358
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 10.9885 - 11.202 = -0.2135
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.202 - 11.7358 = -0.5338
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.5338 / -0.2135 = 2.5002
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 11.7358
[entry_price] => 11.202
[stop_loss] => 10.96715
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-10-02 17:40:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 11.7358
[entry_price] => 11.202
[stop_loss] => 10.9458
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-10-02 17:40:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 11.7358
[entry_price] => 11.202
[stop_loss] => 10.92445
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:20:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 11.7358
[entry_price] => 11.202
[stop_loss] => 10.88175
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.906%
(0.2135)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -1.330% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -1.768% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -2.062% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.161% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.161% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.188% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.188% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.188% | 0.1R | -6.874% | 3.6R | 0.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1493 min
MAE in 308 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
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